The NFL regular season is here, and with it comes a ton of expectations for every team. Some of those expectations are going to be unrealistic, and others are generally accepted: the Seattle Seahawks, Denver Broncos and New England Patriots will probably be the three best teams in the league, the Indianapolis Colts will try once again to enter that top three and the San Francisco 49ers are somewhere huddled around a barrel fire trying to keep warm after a disaster of an offseason.
Falcons could be surprise contender, Cowboys might disappoint in 2015
Nobody expects much of the Falcons, but they could be good in 2015, while the Cowboys have plenty of expectations and could easily disappoint.
Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Power rankings are fairly unanimous in picking other teams like the Dallas Cowboys, Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers near the top, while putting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans near the bottom. In the NFL, teams can change their fortunes on the back of one strong offseason, but on a year-to-year basis, you can typically expect to see a lot of the same faces in the playoffs and a lot of the same faces on the losing end of blowouts.
That said, not every great team from 2014-15 will be great again in 2015-16, and not every bad team should be resigned to the fate of another losing, disappointing season. Some teams will change their fortunes, and it’s a few of those teams we’re going to talk about below.
Team on the Rise: Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons posted a 6-10 record last season, good for third in the pitiful NFC South, which was won by the 7-8-1 Carolina Panthers. The team that features Matt Ryan at quarterback and Julio Jones and Roddy White at receiver completely fell flat, with a defense that couldn't get anything done and an offense that couldn't overcome injury. It was disastrous, but the relative weakness of the division makes it a reasonable target for all four teams within.
Atlanta may have the best chance of winning it this coming season. The Falcons went out this offseason and signed the head coach they wanted all along in Dan Quinn, who will be bringing a new defensive system, which is pretty important given how terrible the defense was a season ago. They finished last in Football Outsiders DVOA metric on defense last season, and the biggest issue was the pass-rush.
Fortunately, Quinn has made all the right moves on defense. He brought in Adrian Clayborn to man the strongside end spot and drafted a bunch of players who could be impact players early in Vic Beasley, Jalen Collins and Grady Jarrett. The defense should improve, and if that happens, all the offense has to do is play to its potential with its star quarterback, star wide receiver and potentially a strong running game assisted by rookie Tevin Coleman.
Other Candidates: Oakland Raiders, New York Giants
The Falcons aren’t the only teams primed to turn things around this season. There’s also the New York Giants, who had just about everybody important sustain some kind of injury last season, and the Oakland Raiders, a team that has spent multiple offseasons purging the bad business decisions from the books.
New York didn't have Odell Beckham Jr. for the full season, which is saying a lot about Beckham because he still out-played most receivers in the league. There's also Victor Cruz, and if you add in Shane Vereen and a motivated Eli Manning, that offense could be dangerous again. On defense, the Giants are already suffering from the injury bug, losing just about every safety on the roster, but if they can overcome those, get Jason Pierre-Paul back at some point and field something even remotely competitive, the Giants will be in a good spot.
Oakland has strung together multiple strong offseasons, getting rid of bad contracts and adding young talent. Derek Carr is the new face of that franchise, and the team worked hard to give him some weapons in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree this offseason. Then there's Khalil Mack on the defensive side of the ball, who should help strengthen that unit big time. There's just a lot of good, young players on that team and Jack Del Rio needs to guide them the right way.
Team Who Will Disappoint: Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys were on the other end of this post last time around. Head coach Jason Garrett was entering what many believed to be his final season (many expected him fired before the season got underway). The defense was coming off a miserable 2013 campaign and everyone thought they would be a disaster. Then DeMarco Murray stood up and became the NFL's leading rusher, behind one of the NFL's most dominant offensive lines. Tony Romo was excellent, Dez Bryant was excellent and the defense wasn't amazing by any stretch, but it wasn't completely disastrous, either.
Now the Cowboys are in a precarious spot. Things haven't changed much on the defensive side of the ball, but they did lose their biggest contributor on offense in Murray. He went to the rival Philadelphia Eagles, while the team signed guys like Darren McFadden to replace him. McFadden and Joseph Randle are expected to carry the load this season and that really doesn't inspire much confidence. Dallas has a defensive line built to bring success to any running back, but Murray provided the extra juice they needed last season.
On defense, they did bring in some good players, like Greg Hardy, and drafted Randy Gregory in the second round. Those guys come with their own issues though, and Hardy won't be around for awhile. They focused on improving the defensive end spots and they did that, but they won't see the rewards in Week 1. There's guys like Byron Jones, Jasper Brinkley and Keith Rivers coming in to help that unit as well. Dallas was great at stopping the run last season and they should be again this year, but have they done enough to improve the pass-rush and the secondary? That's questionable.
Other Candidates: Pittsburgh Steelers, Philadelphia Eagles
Murray may have left for the Eagles, but that doesn't mean they'll be any good this season. The Eagles were right there with the Cowboys last season, impressing everyone under Chip Kelly. But Kelly continues to make drastic changes to the roster, parting ways with DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy and also trading quarterback Nick Foles for Sam Bradford, a guy who has missed a lot more time than he's actually played in recent years. Kelly's team is different, more different than any other team has looked over the course of two seasons, but that being a good thing is debatable.
The Pittsburgh Steelers were fighting with the rest of the very tough AFC North last season, but they're a team losing a lot of veteran experience over the last couple seasons, and losing Jason Worilds to retirement was a shock. Fortunately, Le'Veon Bell's suspension was reduced, which helps them on offense, but Ben Roethlisberger doesn't have much in the way of receiving targets outside of Antonio Brown (who is, of course, one of the best receivers in the league) and the Steelers did little to address the secondary in the offseason. Drating cornerback Senquez Golson in the second round could pay off eventually, but he's raw. Dick LeBeau is gone, and a defense that ranked third-to-last in yards allowed per play last season has a lot of question marks.
How have their expectations changed?
We’ve identified the Falcons, Raiders and Giants as teams that could surprise and be competitive this season, and that’s obviously because they have low expectations. The Cowboys, Steelers and Eagles, on the other hand, have high expectations, at least as far as where they ranked at the end of 2014 and where they rank at the beginning of 2015 are concerned.
We took a look at five major power rankings from the end of the regular season last year, and five power rankings heading into this season, and below we have where teams ended up on average. First, the 2014 power rankings:
As you can see, the Cowboys had the most momentum on the back of Murray’s play, and were even competing for the top seed in the NFC for awhile there. Philadelphia also had some momentum, while the Falcons, Raiders and Giants weren’t even in the discussion. Below, we’ve got 2015’s numbers:
As you can see, not a whole lot has changed. There’s a bit less faith in the Cowboys overall, which is interesting, but they are still getting a surprising amount of love given the changes this offseason. Philadelphia is actually doing quite a bit better despite a ton of moves nobody expected, and it seems like the solid offseason for the Raiders did absolutely nothing to move the needle. Still, don’t be surprised if some of those teams switch places as the season progresses.
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