2015 NFL picks against the spread, Week 1: It’s okay to bet on the Raiders now

Do you bet on preseason games? Of course not. Teams are intentionally playing their third-stringers, the playbook’s maybe halfway open and everyone’s still feeling their way back to football. We can’t responsibly recommend betting on the outcome of exhibition games. It’s just too unpredictable

Some teams are still in preseason mode in the first week of the season. As Matt Ufford pointed out the other day, the Dolphins beat the Patriots, the Titans stomped the Chiefs and Matt Cassel gave one of the week’s better quarterback performances in a beatdown of the Rams. The unpredictability is still there, but you can’t wave off bets anymore. The games count now.

All of that is an elaborate way of saying that these gambling picks are provided merely for your amusement. Don’t send me an email about how you don’t have any money to get your teeth fixed because you lost it all relying on my betting advice.

Lock of the week, Packers -7 over Bears: Why can’t the Bears cover a mere touchdown difference? Because they’re playing the Packers. Over the last 10 games between the two teams, Chicago has covered the spread exactly twice. You’re not going to make much money betting on the Packers here, but it’s better than plunking down your cash thinking that Jay Cutler is totally going to turn it around this year.

UPSET PICK: The Broncos are favored by 5 points on some sports books. Apparently they haven’t been reading the narrative this summer that Peyton Manning’s arm is about to fall off (he has no feeling in his fingers!). But I’m not picking the Ravens here because of Manning, who’s still probably better than half the quarterbacks in the league. I’m picking the Ravens to cover that 5-point spread because betting on the Broncos is usually bad business. Denver was 8-9 against the spread last year. The Broncos are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games against the Ravens.

UPSET PICK, 2: Yes, I’m taking the Raiders to cover a 3-point spread at home against the Bengals. Andy Dalton has actually been pretty good in season openers -- Andy Dalton good in a regular season game, I know, shocker. However, the Raiders are a much better team than they’re getting credit for this season. A big game from Khalil Mack would be more than enough to tilt in their favor. Don’t forget the upgrades on offense Oakland made this year too. The Raiders may not get a straight-up win -- they are still the Raiders -- but they can cover.

STAY AWAY: The Titans-Buccaneers game will be fun to watch because of the Marcus Mariota-Jameis Winston duel. Just don’t bet on this one. Rookie quarterbacks tend to go from the highest of highs to the lowest of lows from week to week. Don’t forget to factor in that both of these teams are going to be very bad this season.

Odds via OddsShark.