NFL Week 3 picks against the spread: A moron bets on Brandon Weeden

COWBOYS +2 over Falcons

Never a great sign when your GM brings in Matt Cassel to push you for a starting position, but I can see why Jerry Jones did it. Weeden is a liability, but if he were to get hurt the Cowboys would need someone to step in and immediately run the same type of chuck-it-and-pray offense. The Cowboys O-Line is still good, but so far they haven’t played up to the level that Bill Callahan had them at last year.

The Falcons, on the other hand, look to be a much dirtier bird on defense than they have been for years. You can chalk part of that up to having a new, intense, defensive-minded coach. Chalk the rest up to personnel upgrades. Either way, the Falcons look to be more like the team that beat the Buccaneers by a million points on Thursday Night Football last year, and less like the team that only beat the Buccaneers by 10 points last year. If this would have been a 3-point spread, there’s no way I’m touching it, but I love the Falcons by a field goal.

But I’m a Big Moron, so I changed my pick at the last second to Cowboys +2.

Saints +4.5 over PANTHERS

Oof. No matter how this season shakes out, I just hope that the winners of the NFC East and NFC South will have to play each other before the conference championship game so that America doesn’t have to suffer through both of those two stumbling ass-backwards into the best weekend in football. We’re even getting a 100 percent Luke McCown. Sounds pretty entertaining right? The Saints entire offense resembles the Panthers receiving corps and I can only imagine what it will look like without Drew Brees in there to lead it. This is the one game I had circled as the lock of the week for me.

There’s just no way that the Panthers should be favored by any less than 6.5 at home in this game, but I’m a Big Moron, so I changed my pick at the last second to Saints +4.5.

BROWNS -3.5 over Raiders

Love betting against those McCowns. Can you imagine, if they grew up across the street from the Detmers, the type of defensive battles the two families would have had during their annual Turkey Bowls?

The Raiders have impact players at the linebacker and DT positions, and on offense they have a genuine deep threat in Amari Cooper. It’s ironic that the Raiders finally got a deep threat by drafting a WR who underperformed in the 40-yard dash. Almost like running in a straight line in underwear doesn’t translate to getting open as much as a three-cone drill or 20-yard shuttle does (Cooper had the fastest times in both exercises at the combine).

If there’s one thing you can count on, it’s that the Browns will always find a way to make themselves less exciting. At least with Manziel starting there was a legitimate chance of a ticker-tape parade or tire-fire taking place on the 50-yard line during every play. The only bit of happiness about the McCown news is coming from those pigeons that like to hang out on the visiting team’s goal line.

I really, really like the Raiders to come into Cleveland and win outright. But I’m a Big Moron, so I changed my pick at the last second to Browns -3.5.

Eagles +2.5 over JETS

It is seriously painful to bet on some of these teams. Like most of America, I am basing my opinion of the Jets on their Monday night shellacking of the Colts in which they made Andrew Luck look like Andrew Luck playing behind a shitty offensive line, and made Ryan Fitzpatrick look like Ryan Fitzpatrick during those four games he played well for the Bills.

The Jets have a defense full of legitimate playmakers. Even though they are still the Jets, it looks like Todd Bowles may have picked a pretty soft place to land for his first gig. I’m definitely going to come across as an idiot for saying this, but the Jets look like they could beat any team in the AFC if their D is firing and Brandon Marshall remains unguardable. If they can find enough of a running game to protect Fitzpatrick, they could be a legit playoff threat.

And boy, do the Eagles look bad. Sam Bradford looks anything but confident, DeMarco Murray just looks confused and the offensive line couldn’t stop a leaky faucet. It’s usually a bit of hyperbole to say that a team is in desperation mode in Week 3, but after the two losses the Eagles have suffered they are definitely going into this game with maximum intensity.

Usually I like to bet on teams with their backs against the wall, but there’s just nothing at all that I’ve seen out of this Philadelphia team that tells me they can focus that energy towards anything productive. But I’m a Big Moron, so I changed my pick at the last second to Eagles +2.5.

Colts -3 over TITANS

I like to imagine the Colts getting back to basics like in Mighty Ducks 2, taking the conversion van down to Tennessee to get back to their roots this weekend.

As I alluded to before, as a genuine gambling moron, I like to put a whole hell of a lot of stock in what just happened during a primetime game in which the Colts went and got their butts waxed by the Jets. The Titans, on the other hand, should be squaring off against their third Heisman-winning QB in as many weeks, but instead they’re just playing against Andrew Luck.

This one is a bit of double-reverse psychology, though. I saw Colts -3 and that line seemed way too low, so I figure someone’s got to know something -- hence I took the Titans. But I’m a Big Moron so I changed it at the last second to the Colts -3.

Last week: 3-2

Season: 8-2