NFL picks against the spread, Week 3: Continuing a nice SuperContest run

Welcome back for Week 3 of the 2015 NFL season. The return of the NFL means gambling is back in our lives. The NFL might frown upon it, but gambling and fantasy football are two of the biggest reasons for the NFL’s insane level of popularity. I think they’ll put up with it.

The contest involves picking five games each week, for 17 weeks. You get to choose which five games you will pick. The lines are locked in Wednesday evening, and picks are submitted by the end of the week. I put together a second straight 4-1 performance, shooting me up to 8-2 on the season. Nowhere to go but down, but maybe I’ll get lucky. Here are my five picks for Week 3.

Two common refrains in sports betting are go by the numbers, and avoid recency bias. And the numbers say to go with the Rams. The Steelers struggle outside the Eastern time zone, and as they are coming off a blowout in Week 2, the Rams are coming off an ugly loss in Washington. I am ignoring both refrains, likely to my peril. The Steelers are 1-0-1 against the spread to start the season, and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games. But really, I am just looking for Le’Veon Bell to carry me to glory in his return from suspension. That Rams defensive line is fierce, but I’m hoping for the best.

This line has come down a bit, but due to the Wednesday lock-in, I am stuck with the Vikings at 2.5-points. The Chargers run defense has struggled through two games, and I am looking for Adrian Peterson to run through the defense with relative ease. The Chargers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 10 September games, but that includes a loss last week. Meanwhile, the Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.

One upside to the line locking in on Wednesday is I get a pre-Drew Brees line. The Saints announced on Friday that Brees would not play. The line has now swung to Panthers -10. I would have avoided that line, but any chance I can get a game against Luke McCown at -4.5, I feel like I have to take it. This might blow up in my face, but these kinds of opportunities do not come along often.

The Colts could just be in for a loooooooong season. Their defense is bad, and turmoil is running rampant between head coach Chuck Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson. For now though, I am going to ride on the Colts’ AFC South dominance. The Titans looked good in Week 1, and not so good in Week 2. I’ll ride the Colts bouncing back on offense to get the cover.

Random interesting stat that has little bearing on this game: The Chiefs have never lost at Lambeau. They also haven’t played there since 2003, but it is interesting nonetheless. That being said, even if Eddie Lacy does not play, this is a game in which I see Aaron Rodgers taking control.

Here are all my picks for Week 3 (8-8 last week, 18-13-1 overall):

GIANTS vs. Washington (+3.5): Giants - Win
RAMS vs. Steelers (-1.5): Steelers
VIKINGS vs. Chargers (+2.5): Vikings
TEXANS vs. Bucs (+6.5): Bucs
JETS vs. Eagles (+2.5): Jets
PANTHERS vs. Saints (+4.5): Panthers
PATRIOTS vs. Jaguars (+13.5): Patriots
RAVENS vs. Bengals (+2.5): Bengals
BROWNS vs. Raiders (+3.5): Raiders
TITANS vs. Colts (-3): Colts
COWBOYS vs. Falcons (-2): Cowboys
CARDINALS vs. 49ers (+6.5): 49ers
SEAHAWKS vs. Bears (+14.5): Seahawks
DOLPHINS vs. Bills (+3): Dolphins
LIONS vs. Broncos (-3): Broncos
PACKERS vs. Chiefs (+6.5): Packers