In the last 10 seasons, a passer rating of 100 or more at the end of a season has been accomplished 35 times, but just twice by a rookie. Only Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson managed the feat in a 2012 season that featured rookie quarterbacks taking the NFL by storm.
Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Teddy Bridgewater should be in store for breakout 2nd seasons
What kind of production can we expect from last year’s crop of rookie quarterbacks?
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Typically, that isn’t the case. The combined passer rating of the 18 quarterbacks picked in the first round who started eight games or more over the last 10 seasons is just 75.5, and Griffin’s 102.4 rating in 2012 is the only one over 88.
There’s an explanation for the lack of stellar performance by rookie quarterbacks, and it seems like an obvious one:
Quarterbacks improve with experience.
Rookie QBs make more mistakes
The most significant difference between rookies and second-year quarterbacks is the ability of passers to avoid mistakes. While completion percentages typically improve by an average of two percent and touchdowns stay relatively steady, passer ratings take a significant jump on average, thanks to fewer interceptions.
Chart show combined TD and INT for all eligible QBs.
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles and Minnesota Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater took over starting duties early in their rookie seasons in 2014. Johnny Manziel -- the only other first-round quarterback from the 2014 NFL Draft -- made just two starts, while Derek Carr -- an early second-round pick -- started 16 games for the Oakland Raiders.
None of those quarterbacks set the world on fire with their play as rookies, although Bridgewater’s 85.2 passer rating was much higher than the average for a rookie. While Carr and Bortles showed flashes of potential, their respective 76.6 and 69.5 ratings were among the NFL’s worst for starters.
Only a few outliers regressed after rookie year
The good news for the Raiders, Jaguars and even the Vikings is that quarterbacks improve on a relatively consistent basis in their second seasons. Only four of the quarterbacks taken in the first round over the last 10 seasons regressed in their second season after starting eight or more games as a rookie, while the majority took a step forward:
The two most significant drop-offs in play came from Griffin and Matt Leinart, who both suffered injuries after encouraging starts to their careers. Griffin's rookie season ended with a torn ACL and he's now a backup in Washington after a roller coaster of mishandled situations that followed his injury.
Leinart got off to a slow start to his second season, and threw just 112 passes over five starts while splitting time with Kurt Warner before he was sent to injured reserve in early October with a broken collarbone. Warner never gave back the job and led the Arizona Cardinals to a Super Bowl with a Pro Bowl season in 2008.
Second-year QBs primed for big seasons
While Bortles was the NFL’s most sacked quarterback in 2014 and Bridgewater faced overblown criticisms about small knees, ankles and wrists, all of the rookies escaped last season without a major injury.
For Bridgewater, improvement came steadily during his rookie year. After four touchdowns and six interceptions in his first seven games, he finished with a passer rating of 103 over his last five starts with eight touchdowns and five interceptions. Carr similarly finished an up-and-down season with seven touchdowns and just one interception in December.
That wasn’t the case for Bortles, though. After hitting passer ratings of more than 80 in four of his first seven games, sacks took their toll on the rookie and he managed to record a passer rating above 75 just once in his final seven starts. However, expectations are high for Bortles in his second season after a stellar preseason that isn’t quite the same as his promising 2014 preseason.
Statistical projections in the Football Outsiders 2015 almanac expect a significant jump for Bortles after a 69.5 passer rating with 11 touchdowns and 17 interceptions last year. Bortles is projected to finish 2015 with 22 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and an 84.3 passer rating.
Bridgewater and Carr are also projected to improve with projected passer ratings of 91.5 and 80.3, respectively.
Much of the expected improvements of the three has to do with the addition of offensive talent around them. Bridgewater will have Adrian Peterson behind him for the first time and has a new deep threat with Mike Wallace. The Jaguars added Julius Thomas and T.J. Yeldon to help Bortles, and Carr now has Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree to throw to.
Big things could be on the way for teams with second-year quarterbacks, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tennessee Titans should probably buckle up and prepare for the speed bumps that come with a rookie taking the reins.
But if trends continue, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota could be looking at breakout seasons in 2016.
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