NFL picks against the spread: 5 good bets for Week 17

We’re wrapping up the regular season and I, for one, am pretty glad to see it go. I’ve lost money this year and plunged towards the bottom of the OddsShark standings due in large part to a brutal Week 15 and 16. I can still claw my way back to the middle, but it’s going to take some good luck.

For all those out there who have never gambled on meaningless week seventeen NFL games, you should keep that streak going. The regular season finales have everything you hate to see as a gambler -- fired coaches, third-string QBs, and uncertainty when it comes to how long the best players will remain in the games. You’d have to be a big moron like myself to gamble on it, but here we are, so we might as well make some money.

Last week: 1-4

On the season: 38-41-1

BILLS +3 over Jets

The Jets are playing as well as anyone in the AFC right now, while the Bills have regressed tremendously. Week 17 is a real crapshoot in terms of knowing which teams will show up and put forth effort, but I’m pretty confidant that the Jets are going to be playing as hard as they can. I can’t say the same for the Bills who started to self-destruct three weeks ago.

New York is 4-0-1 in their last five against the spread and have earned their way into the wild card spot. I would bet the bank on the Jets winning big this weekend, but I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to Bills +3.

Jaguars +6 over TEXANS

Here’s another example of two teams with uneven motivation as the Jags are out of the hunt, and Houston has the South all but sewn up. The Texans could probably substitute their offensive guards with a ladder and a black cat, run dives all day, lose by 200 points, and still win the division over the Colts, who need a parlay of epic proportions to play out all across the AFC to qualify for the postseason.

The Texans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight with a revolving door of Brian Hoyer, T.J. Yates, and Brandon Weeden under center. Bill O’Brien should get an extension just for the job he’s done without a solid QB or Arian Foster. The Jaguars offense is clicking, but their defense and play calling has bit them in the butt time and time again. I like Houston to win handily, but I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to Jaguars +6.

Titans +2.5 over COLTS

I’m going down with the Titans’ ship this season. Going to ride them straight into the ground until they make me look good for picking them. But I have to say they’re a depressing team to bet on. They’ve managed to be overwhelmingly boring even by Titans standards while going an atrocious 0-4-1 ATS in their last five.

This has been the year of the backup and I can’t think of a more back-up QB matchup than Zach Mettenberger battling it out with some combination of Ryan Lindley, Josh Freeman, or Stephen Morris. It’s being played in Indianapolis, but it might as well be on the dark side of the moon because I’m going to write my Congressman if the Redzone channel broadcasts more than 30 seconds of live footage from this game.

As rough as it is to bet on Lindley, I had to do it. But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to Titans +2.5.

COWBOYS -3.5 over Washington

I was shocked that Dallas was favored by more than a field goal here. I would have thought this line would have been more in the -1 or pick ‘em range. Apparently the books anticipate a healthy dose of Washington’s second and third-stringers, as D.C. has nothing to gain out of winning this game. Likewise, Dallas is playing for pride and draft position, and most importantly, for their jobs.

I would lean towards Dallas on this, but I haven’t seen anything out of their offense that would give me any confidence at all. All I have to go on from Washington is McCoy’s performance last year in Arlington plus a spread that seems to be two points too high. That’s good enough for me to take Washington. But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to Cowboys -3.5.

Eagles +3 over GIANTS

I’m a simple guy with simple reasons for my bets. I don’t think there’s anything Tom Coughlin can do at this point to save his job, but I know that he’s going to be trying as hard as he can. I’ll take a motivated Giants squad playing in their coach’s swan song over an Eagles team in limbo.

All things being equal in Week 17, I’m a hell of a lot more comfortable betting on Eli/Coughlin than Bradford/Shurmur even with the Giants historically bad secondary. But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to Eagles +3.