The battle for the AFC title should be full of intrigue after a strange and unpredictable regular season. It’s not just that the AFC is wide open this season, either. That seems to be the case every year, especially in today’s hard-capped NFL where parity rules and continuity is a foreign concept.
Here’s how each AFC team can make the Super Bowl
The defending champion Patriots might have the best shot to make it to back-to-back Super Bowls, but the AFC crown is there for the taking.
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What separates this season’s field from those in years past is how flawed all six of these teams are. There’s not a dominant squad in this group. No one is healthy. The ones with strong defenses can’t score. The ones that can score can’t stop anyone. The hot teams are all weak at quarterback. The teams that have good quarterbacks are flailing.
Every team left standing in the AFC has a shot at making Super Bowl 50. But they all have enough question marks to end up losing in the first round of the playoffs, too.
Here’s how each of the six will earn a trip to the Super Bowl, and how each one will fall short.
Denver Broncos (12-4)
How they got here: Defense, defense and more defense. The quarterback yo-yoing, understandably, gets most of the attention, but it's the league's No. 1-ranked defense that carried the Broncos to the AFC's top seed. Denver has beasts up front (Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware) and studs on the outside (Chris Harris, Aqib Talib) and occasionally even gets a solid performance out of its quarterback, whether it's Peyton Manning or Brock Osweiler.
Why they'll make the Super Bowl: That defense in snowy Mile High Stadium is going to be tough to beat. Also, Gary Kubiak recently replaced right tackle Michael Schofield, which takes care of Denver's largest hole on that sometimes shaky line. Oh, and Peyton Manning's back under center.
Why they won’t make the Super Bowl: Peyton Manning’s back under center. Has everyone forgotten about this debacle of a performance earlier this year against the Chiefs? This throw, which was flagged for intentional grounding, might have actually been his best of that day.
Just wait until he’s forced to chuck the ball into that swirling Denver wind.
Prediction: The defense holds strong and the offense puts up enough points for Denver to move past either Kansas City, Houston or Cincinnati. But the Broncos’ season ends as soon as they face a team that can actually, you know, score -- like the Steelers or Patriots.
New England Patriots (12-4)
How they got here: The Tom Brady to Rob Gronkowski connection, wins over weak AFC teams, one of the top scoring offenses in the NFL and a lot of sacks from Chandler Jones.
Why they’ll make the Super Bowl: Because they’re the Patriots, and because Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are still there. Making trips to the Super Bowl is what they do. When healthy, there’s not a more complete team in the AFC. But ...
Why they won't make the Super Bowl: Right now, they're far from healthy. Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount are out, and Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Sebastian Vollmer are all banged up. Even Brady is dealing with a high ankle sprain. The Patriots are also riding a two-game losing streak after losses to the Dolphins and Jets to close out the regular season. This is not the same team that ran out to a 10-0 start.
Prediction: The bye week allows Brady and his weapons to heal, and the return of either Edelman and/or Amendola helps the Patriots’ offense morph back into the juggernaut we saw at the beginning of the year. Gronk is healthy, and when Gronk plays, the Patriots usually win -- they’re 6-2 in postseason games with Gronkowski in the lineup. This is the team to beat, and bet on, in the AFC.
Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)
How they got here: 1) By riding the right arm of Andy Dalton, which had never been so effective and accurate until his thumb. 2) By force-feeding the ball to A.J. Green. 3) By building one of the league's best offensive lines. 4) By putting together a defense that finished the season No. 2 in points allowed.
Why they’ll make the Super Bowl: They went 10-3 this season with Dalton under center and after getting his cast off this week, there’s a chance he makes it back to the lineup soon. Even with Dalton missing three games, the Bengals still managed to finish with the No. 1 offense in the league, according to Football Outsiders. Combine that attack with a stout and opportunistic defense and you have a well-rounded team without many holes.
Why they won't make the Super Bowl: Because they're still the Bengals and they're still led by Marvin Lewis, who has never won a playoff game as a head coach. If Dalton doesn't play Saturday against the Steelers -- and all signs point to him needing at least another week -- Cincinnati will have trouble putting enough points on the board to keep up with Pittsburgh, no matter how many times Reggie Nelson is able to pick Big Ben off.
Prediction: Same old story for the Bengals. With AJ McCarron under center, they get blown out by an explosive Steelers team in the first round.
Houston Texans (9-7)
How they got here: Andrew Luck becoming a human piñata and only playing in seven games this season created a window for the Texans, who enter the playoffs riding a three-game win streak. They are also winners of seven of their last nine. Their defense has morphed into one of the league's best, which allowed the Texans to feast on a weak AFC South.
Why they'll make the Super Bowl: It's hard to say. Along with being a stud of a dancer, J.J. Watt is also a superhuman football player who led the league in sacks this year for the second time in his career. With Whitney Mercilus (12 sacks), he now has a running mate who can take advantage of all that attention he draws. Maybe the Texans defensive line, which also features 2014 No. 1 pick Jadeveon Clowney, can wreak enough havoc to make up for everything the offense is lacking.
Why they won’t make the Super Bowl: Because Brian Hoyer is the quarterback and Pro Bowl left tackle Duane Brown just went on injured reserve.
Prediction: Houston gets knocked out in the first round by the similarly built, but more potent Chiefs.
Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)
How they got here: Kansas City has won its last 10 games thanks to the steady and cautious right arm of Alex Smith and consistently good defense. The Chiefs also field a strong special teams unit and don't turn the ball over much.
Why they’ll make the Super Bowl: If Justin Houston is back and healthy after missing the last five games, the Chiefs will trot out a vicious defense. Plus, you can make argument that they have the third-best quarterback among these AFC teams. As much fun as it is to poke at Smith’s love of checkdowns, he’s thrown for a career-high 3,486 yards this season, along with 20 touchdowns to just seven interceptions.
Why they won't make the Super Bowl: They can't play from behind and Andy Reid still treats basic clock management like advanced calculus. Even though he was solid this season, Smith can't match bullets with Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger.
Prediction: The Chiefs take out the Texans in the first round, and maybe even make it all the way to the AFC Championship -- but most likely, they’ll be dealt a loss in the Divisional round.
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
How they got here: Ben Roethlisberger throwing bombs to Antonio Brown, Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant, and then again to Antonio Brown, was one of the biggest keys. Plus, the Steelers went for two a lot -- and converted. The defense, while not a classic Steelers defense, was mostly able to hold its own.
Why they’ll make the Super Bowl: The Steelers boast the conference’s best and most explosive offense to go along with a Hall of Fame quarterback and champion coach. If the Steelers’ attack is clicking, there’s not a team in the AFC that can keep up.
Why they won't make the Super Bowl: Every now and then, they put up a dud (Exhibit A: that Week 16 loss to the Ravens) and the defense isn't going to win games by itself.
Prediction: The Steelers make it all the way to the AFC Championship, where they fall in a shootout to the Patriots.
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