Football survivor pool strategy/picks, Week 10: 2 clear choices this week

The 2016 football season is upon us, and that means all sorts of options for exercising our skill as football prognosticators. People will take part in fantasy football and pick ‘em contests, but survivor pools are growing in popularity. For those new to the contest, a survivor pool involves picking one team each week that you think will win. If your team wins in Week 1, you can make a pick in Week 2. If your team wins in Week 2, you can make a pick in Week 3, and so on. The catch is that you cannot pick a team twice. You could use a heavy favorite in Week 1, but that precludes you from using them later in the season.

There is plenty of strategy in determining which team you will take each week, and SB Nation is here to help. We have experts providing rankings for each week, and then some thoughts on weekly strategy. First up, we have a consensus ranking of all teams in action this week, and which is most likely to win their game That is followed by each writer making a pick, some reasoning for the pick, and then some alternatives to consider.

Primary pick: Arizona Cardinals over San Francisco 49ers
Secondary pick: Baltimore Ravens over Cleveland Browns

This is definitely one of those weeks where the concept of “future value” really rears its head. If you used Arizona early in the season (and were lucky enough to pick the rare week when the Cardinals didn’t lose or tie) then you are going to be forced to make a pick you might not like. Arizona is going to be the mega-chalk of the season this week, as their home game against the woeful 49ers is the only one that really stands out as a sure thing. If you have the Cardinals, I’d implore you to spend that bullet this week. They do not have any real future value of their own at the present time, so there’s no better time to lock and load.

If you don’t have Arizona to work with, I would highly recommend one of two options: Baltimore and San Diego. Cleveland remains perfect on the season, from a Survivor targeting standpoint, and getting them on the short week only enhances Baltimore’s chances to win. The sleeper choice is the Chargers. They have put their fumbling, bumbling ways behind them and remain in playoff contention. They had a bad week at the ballot box (their stadium proposal was voted down on Tuesday), but on the field, playing at home, they should be able to handle Miami. One caveat: The Chargers have ... future value! (Cleveland, Week 16).

Primary pick: Arizona Cardinals over San Francisco 49ers
Secondary pick: Baltimore Ravens over Cleveland Browns

My strategy going forward will to pick whichever team plays the 49ers. I don’t think Colin Kaepernick fairs much better than his 2015 trip to Arizona where the QB tossed four interceptions including a pick-six. Arizona’s defense may not have the same bite, but the 49ers are a bad team and there is too much talent in Arizona on both sides of the ball. If you’d rather not trust your survivor fate to the 2016 version of Carson Palmer, I get it. I also like Baltimore to beat Cleveland in Charm City. Divisional games can be low scoring affairs, but it is hard to see the Browns pulling a fast one on Harbaugh and crew Thursday night.

Primary pick: Arizona Cardinals over San Francisco 49ers
Secondary pick: Baltimore Ravens over Cleveland Browns, New England Patriots over Seattle Seahawks

Arizona is favored by almost two touchdowns and is coming off their bye week. They haven’t lost at home against San Francisco since 2013. San Francisco is coming in with injuries to Carlos Hyde and Torrey Smith. Those injuries will be too much to overcome against a well rested Arizona team. My secondary picks are Baltimore and New England. Both teams will be playing opposing teams on short weeks. They also will be playing at home.

Primary pick: Arizona Cardinals over San Francisco 49ers
Secondary pick: Baltimore Ravens over Cleveland Browns

The 49ers are coming off of an embarrassing home loss to the Saints while the Cardinals have had two weeks to prepare for this 49ers team that they beat 33-21 in Week 5 without Carson Palmer. Having an extra week to prepare coupled with the Cardinals just having a better overall team, my pick this week is Arizona.