It’s been a while since we’ve seen a 14-point spread. Two touchdowns is a huge margin, and it’s an enticing one to bet against, especially when it involves a pair of divisional rivals. However, it’s not such a huge spread when the underdog team is the San Francisco 49ers.
NFL picks against the spread, Week 10: Good and bad underdog bets
If you’re looking for underdogs, the Broncos and Texans might be the teams for you. Avoid the 49ers.
The 49ers are 1-7 this season. They are slightly better against the spread, at 3-4-1. San Francisco is losing games by an average of more than 17 points, and only two of the team’s seven losses this season have been by a difference of less than two touchdowns.
Interestingly enough, one of those was a Week 5 tilt against the Arizona Cardinals. It’s worth noting that the Cardinals were starting Drew Stanton that week and the game was at Levi’s Stadium, so take it with a healthy does of skepticism.
It’s attractive to bet on a team that’s a 14-point underdog, but you should probably skip it in this case.
CARDINALS (-14) vs. 49ers
Same rules as usual for this week’s picks. All odds come via OddsShark, and the home team is represented in all caps. We’ll update this as the lines change, which they will. Check out this week’s most pressing injury situations too before making any bets.
Broncos (+3) vs. SAINTS
You don’t see the Broncos as underdogs much this year. They’re 6-3 against the spread, same as their actual record. Part of what’s making them underdogs this week is that they won’t have cornerback Aqib Talib against Drew Brees and the Saints, who are averaging 30 points per game and on a winning streak, picking up victories in four of their last five.
Still, the Saints defense is a sieve, and it looks like a nice rebound week for Trevor Siemian and the Broncos offense. I think they’re a good underdog pick this week.
Texans (+2.5) vs JAGUARS
Gus Bradley keeps finding the most meaningless silver linings of all for his team. He’s one win away from a hot streak! The guy should have an endorsement deal with Dairy Queen, taking his team there for congratulatory ice cream after a close loss.
This is not the week the Jaguars get on that hot streak, which is one game in Bradley’s opinion.
Packers (-2.5) vs. TITANS
This seems like a harder game to pick than it should be. Why? Because the Packers are determined to be the most underwhelming team this year. Actually, that has become Mike McCarthy’s signature over the last few seasons — a team unable to live up to high expectations.
But I’m not expecting their third loss in a row this week. The Titans have four wins, but they’ve come against the worst teams in the league: the Browns, Jaguars, etc.
Chiefs (+3) vs. PANTHERS
Despite having six wins, the Chiefs are only 3-5 against the spread. Last week’s narrow win at home over the Jaguars left a lot to be desired, and was one of those where they failed to cover. Expect them to play better this week.
JETS (ev) vs. Rams
Falcons (-1) vs. EAGLES
BUCCANEERS (+2.5) vs. Bears
Vikings (+1.5) vs. WASHINGTON
Dolphins (+4.5) vs. CHARGERS
Cowboys (+3) vs. STEELERS
SEAHAWKS (+7.5) vs. Patriots
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