Jared Goff lost his 1st start for the Rams, just like history suggested

Jared Goff finally got to see the first NFL action of his career on Sunday when the Los Angeles Rams hosted the Miami Dolphins. Just as history indicated, he lost his first start. Weirdly enough, it might be in the Rams’ best interest.

Quarterbacks who were No. 1 overall picks haven’t walked off the field after their first start as a winner since 2002. Carson Palmer, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, and many more all felt the sting of defeat in their professional debuts.

Goff didn’t look great in the 14-10 loss -- he only threw for 134 yards -- but he limited his mistakes and didn’t turn the ball over. His QB rating was just 65.8, which is at least on par to what the other top picks have done.

Since Palmer’s debut, those No. 1 overall picks have had an average quarterback rating of just 62.0. While Palmer, Newton, and even JaMarcus Russell exceeded expectations, this list of first starts reads like a cautionary tale, especially with Jeff Fisher eager to escape the 7-9 bullsh** that has defined the later stages of his coaching career.

The last top pick to win in game one? David Carr back in 2002.

What’s even more troubling for Goff is the list of first-round quarterback prospects who have been relative failures after not starting a game until the second half of their rookie seasons or beyond. While some players like Carson Palmer and Philip Rivers have had long, fruitful careers, they’re the exceptions on a long list of mediocre passers.

Old friend Rodger Sherman pointed out the last six first-round quarterbacks to make it to November without starting a game reads like the list college coaches push in front of hot-shot juniors to convince them to return for one more year.

Woof. Unless Goff can buck recent trends, his most favorable comparison is either Jake Locker or Tim Tebow. Even in the most accurate of comparisons, theoretical Goff would only be the 28th-best starting quarterback in the league.

Of course, this is a small sample size and is no way a rule. Eli Manning, for example, didn’t start a game until November of his rookie year and he’s got two Super Bowl rings. Manning got to play in relief of Kurt Warner earlier in the season, however. Goff is coming in cold behind an ineffective Case Keenum.

While the NFL’s newest starting quarterback may continue to struggle, the Rams have little to lose. Keenum was just 4-5 and has recorded a 76.8 passer rating this fall. If Goff falls in line with even these pessimistic projections, the Los Angeles offense won’t skip a beat.

The Dolphins won, but the Rams are still betting the quarterback they traded away boatloads of draft capital can buck recent trends. Los Angeles will have to hope Goff is more Carson Palmer than Brady Quinn in the future.