NFL picks against the spread, Week 11: Browns, Jaguars make good underdog picks

Let’s drill down a little further into the Week 11 games featuring the league’s saddest franchises this season: the Bears, Browns, Jaguars and 49ers.

All four teams have lopsided matchups this week. They’re lopsided every week this season and probably will be through Week 17. None of these teams are going anywhere and the problems holding them back are just too much to overcome.

Why they’re struggling is pretty clear—they don’t have much talent, and injuries have sapped them of their best players. The Jaguars have more going for them than the other three, but a coach who’s absolutely clueless about what to do with that talent. However, all four teams have varying levels of dysfunction inside the organization that makes the prospects for next year a mixed bag. That’s where there’s some separation in character here. But let’s stay focused on this week’s games, where all four teams are underdogs.

All odds are via OddsShark, and we’ll update them as the lines move.

Patriots (-11.5) vs. 49ERS

The biggest spread this week is the Patriots vs. 49ers game in Santa Clara. On Friday afternoon, the line had moved to -11, down from an opening of -14. Some of that probably has to do with sports books trying to entice a few more bettors to put money on the Niners. It could also have something to do with the fact that Gronk isn’t playing this week.

The silver lining for the Niners is how well Colin Kaepernick has played lately. No, it’s not going to be enough to win the game or even cover a double-digit spread, but it is at least something to make the rest of this terrible season slightly less insufferable (except for the egg avatars on Twitter).

BROWNS (+8) vs. Steelers

The Browns are the most hopeful of this bunch of sad-sack franchises. We learned this week that the notoriously impatient owner, Jimmy Haslam, isn’t going to fire Hue Jackson after the season, even if the Browns do somehow manage to go 0-16.

This is a complete rebuild, like, rip out the foundation and lay down a new one. It’s hard to win like that, but dammit, the Browns are at least trying.

They even made a nice motivational poster/inside joke for Terrelle Pryor.

I’m probably a fool to suggest putting any money on the Browns, but ask yourself just how much you trust the Steelers right now.

GIANTS (-7) vs. Bears

Good news. Jay Cutler isn’t as hated in the locker room as you thought, according to Jay Cutler. No matter. He’s become the symbol of a franchise spinning its wheels. He’s been just good enough to tie them together, but bad enough to hold them back.

That’s probably going to change after this year. But since we’re talking about Week 11, just don’t bet on the Bears at all, especially since they’re without Alshon Jeffery for a month.

Jaguars (+6) vs. LIONS

The Jaguars are a miserable 2-7, but at least they have a decent 5-4 mark against the spread. That’s what happens when your quarterback is only capable of playing well in garbage time.

RAMS (+2) vs. Dolphins

The next saddest franchise, though it doesn’t fit on this list, is the Rams. They’re like Richie Rich: worth a gazillion dollars now that they relocated to Los Angeles, but perpetually unhappy because the owner’s too busy counting his money to notice how poorly Jeff Fisher and general manager Les Snead are running the team.

Miami should normally win this game, but with Branden Albert out and Mike Pouncey doubtful, that’s up in the air. The offensive line has been the biggest reason for the Dolphins’ turnaround, but without two of their best starters, it’s that much easier for the Rams to get back to that 7-9 threshold.

But what about Jared Goff? Come on. He’s not going to make any more of a difference than Case Keenum did. The miracle of Fisher’s 7-9 bullshit is that he can pull it off no matter who’s playing QB.

CHIEFS (-7) vs Buccaneers

COWBOYS (-7) vs. Ravens

Cardinals (+2.5) vs. VIKINGS

Titans (+2.5) vs. COLTS

BENGALS (-2.5) vs. Bills

SEAHAWKS (-6.5) vs. Eagles

Packers (+2.5) vs. WASHINGTON

RAIDERS (-5.5) vs. Texans