NFL panic index, Week 12: The Cowboys will go to the Super Bowl and lose

Here’s some good news for Cowboys fans: Dallas is probably going to the Super Bowl.

Here’s some good news for Cowboys haters: Dallas is probably going to lose the Super Bowl.

No, we don’t have a crystal ball or a Grays Sports Almanac. But what we do have is a little trivia for you.

The Cowboys also have a healthy lead in the NFC, putting them in the driver’s seat for a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the playoffs. The Super Bowl is certainly no sure thing, though. They only have one win over a team that currently has a record above .500, and they’d likely have to get through a tough-as-nails Seahawks team in the NFC.

And if they do make it to the NFL’s biggest stage, here’s a bad omen:

Those Patriots and Broncos teams cruised to the Super Bowl, and then they both lost.

You don’t have to be a Dallas fan to admit that Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott have revitalized the Cowboys with their dazzling MVP-like play and infectious energy. This year, the Cowboys are having fun and they’re fun to watch. In fact, they remind us a lot of last year’s Panthers, who entertained all the way to Super Bowl 50, only to lay an egg.

Panic index: Don’t write history before it happens. Just like polls, patterns like this are cool to talk about, but meaningless if they don’t come true.

The Colts’ hopes for a Thanksgiving Day win will rest with ... Scott Tolzien?

There remains a chance that Andrew Luck will be under center for the Steelers Thursday, but with Luck still in concussion protocol as of Tuesday, it looks likely that the Colts will be without their starting quarterback this week. That means Colts fans should brace for Scott Tolzien to helm the team’s offense on Thanksgiving night.

So, just how worried should Colts fans be about heading into battle with Tolzien at QB? Well, Tolzien turned in a less-than-stellar performance the last time he earned significant regular season run, when he was Aaron Rodgers’ backup in Green Bay.

The Packers failed to win over a three-game span in 2013 in which Tolzien played as the team’s primary QB. He threw for 717 yards over those games, but also had just one touchdown as opposed to five interceptions. In the one full game Tolzien played, a loss against the Giants, he did have one impressive silver lining, as he completed all five of his pass attempts that went 25 yards or longer.

Tolzien has a short week to adjust to starting for the Colts, but at least he has the support of coach Chuck Pagano:

Still, it’d be understandable if Indy fans were less confident. Like, way, way less confident.

Panic index: Hope that Adam Vinatieri can kick some extraordinarily long field goals ... or play quarterback ... or both.

After Week 6, we panicked because left tackle Lane Johnson was suspended for 10 games for violating the league’s PED policy. After Week 11, it’s time to panic once more — Johnson’s backup, Halapoulivaati Vaitai, is set to miss significant time after spraining his MCL in Sunday’s loss to the Seahawks.

Philadelphia’s 3-0 start crashed down to a 5-5 slog thanks in part to an offensive line that’s struggled to keep rookie quarterback Carson Wentz protected. Washington abused the Eagles’ patchwork line in a Week 5 win that saw Wentz get driven to the turf a dozen times. The line had stabilized recently as Vaitai, a rookie, adjusted to the game. Wentz was hit only 10 times and sacked four times in the team’s two games leading up to Sunday.

Then, Vaitai went down in the fourth quarter, setting Wentz up for another few weeks of dancing in the pocket behind a subpar line. Left guard Allen Barbre will move to right tackle and Stefen Wisniewski will come off the bench to take Barbre’s former role. Barbre is a nine-year veteran who only became a full-time starter since landing a role on Philadelphia’s depleted roster in 2015. He’s going to be the focal point for opposing defensive line coaches from Sunday until either Johnson or Vaitai — ideally both — return.

After averaging a 104.0 passer rating in his first four games as a professional, Wentz has dropped to a 72.3 over his last six games. While much of the change can be attributed to defensive coordinators learning his tendencies, Philadelphia’s inability to keep him protected is playing a similarly significant role.

Panic index: The Eagles’ receivers kind of suck right now. Maybe it’s time to see if Philadelphia can revolutionize the jumbo offense while all its tackles are hurt.

The Seahawks and the Eagles have more in common than just having birds as their mascot. Both of these NFC teams are having troubles at the running back position.

For the Eagles, Darren Sproles left their last game due to a fractured rib, and he’s questionable for their game against the Packers. Ryan Mathews is also questionable, after leaving with an MCL sprain in his right knee.

In Seattle, hype was really building around rookie running back C.J. Prosise. He had a monster game against the New England Patriots on Sunday night in Week 10, leading the team to waive Christine Michael. After a week of excitement surrounding Prosise, he injured his shoulder in the first half of their Week 11 game against the Eagles. He fractured his scapula, and will miss up to eight weeks.

Troymaine Pope is questionable for the Seahawks on Sunday after he sustained a high-ankle sprain, which means rookie Alex Collins is the next man up.

Perhaps the Seahawks pulled the plug on Michael a bit too early?

Panic index: The Seahawks have the defense and Russell Wilson to survive. The Eagles should just hope they don’t drop out of the playoff race entirely.

The Kansas City Chiefs are having a good season. They’re 7-3, and currently trailing only the Oakland Raiders (8-2) in a competitive AFC West race. The problem for the Chiefs is that they have been historically awful when the sun goes down, and Kansas City has a few night games remaining on the schedule this season, starting this week.

Not only do the Chiefs have to play half of their remaining games in primetime, all of those matchups are against AFC West rivals, which means Kansas City’s playoff hopes really do hang in the balance.

The Chiefs are 10-18 in primetime games since the 2004 season, and with the Denver Broncos also sitting at 7-3, the Chiefs can’t afford missteps.

Kansas City has an opportunity to gain an edge on Denver this week when the Chiefs face off against the Broncos on Sunday Night Football. This game wasn’t initially scheduled for Sunday night, but the league chose to flex it because it’s an intriguing matchup. That may not work out well for the Chiefs.

They’ve got an important Thursday Night Football matchup against the Raiders, one that could go a long way toward solidifying the division standings, in Week 14. The Chiefs’ last primetime game this season will be a Christmas Day matchup with the Broncos.

The Chiefs are in a good position to make the playoffs as things stand today, but if Kansas City follows its historical pattern of not playing well in primetime, it could all be for naught.

Panic index: Where’s a vampire when you need one? Unless the Chiefs suddenly gain nighttime powers, their fans have a legitimate reason to be concerned, especially in an extremely competitive AFC West.