No teams have burned bettors and survivor pools this season like the Browns and Jaguars. The Jaguars were supposed to be good, better at any rate, and the Browns have been an attractive pick just because, hell, they have to win one of these games, right?
NFL picks against the spread, Week 14: The Packers are a great underdog bet against the Seahawks
Always bet on Pack. Well, this week anyway. The Browns look like a decent bet, too.
Not necessarily. I’ve learned my lesson about picking Cleveland to win straight up this year. But this looks like a good week to bet on the Browns, or at least the best chance you have to make a little money on them as an underdog for the rest of the season.
The Bengals are favored by 5.5 points at Cleveland this week. However, they’ve been almost as bad at covering the spread as the Browns have been, 3-8-1 compared to 2-10, respectively.
Over their last four games, the Browns averaged less than 10 points, but this week they’ll have Robert Griffin III at quarterback. That figures to boost their offensive output, at least until he gets injured again. And with the state of Cleveland’s offensive line, that’s possible.
The Bengals are a disaster, though. This game could be the one that ends up getting Marvin Lewis fired, finally.
BROWNS (+5.5) over Bengals
A quick reminder. All of our odds are courtesy of OddsShark. Don’t forget to check the injury report either.
Okay, let’s talk about the Jaguars now.
They’re 3-point underdogs to the visiting Vikings this week. Normally, I’d pick the Jags to win this one, win it outright. They have the kind of defensive horses capable of destroying the Vikings pitiful offensive line, which doesn’t take much. But the Jags just don’t look like they have an ounce of life to them anymore; not a whit of give-a-damn left to give.
And why should they? Their coach is way over his head. No matter what kind of effort they put forth, Gus Bradley or Blake Bortles finds a way to ruin it for them. I wouldn’t even bet on them to cover a slim spread like this at home right now.
Vikings (-3) over JAGUARS
A road game with the Steelers as a 3-point favorite? That would have been an invitation to take the Bills a month ago, but things have changed since then. Pittsburgh seems to be over its midseason struggles. Rex Ryan, true to form, is on the verge of letting a promising season slip away.
The Bills are 9-3 in their last 10 games as an underdog at home. However, they’re facing a Steelers team that’s very good at stopping the run, holding opponents to less than 100 yards per game. That’s what Buffalo needs to do to win. The Bills are 0-3 when they rush for less than 100 yards in a game this season.
Steelers (-3) over BILLS
The Titans are favored over the Broncos. I had to read that twice myself to make sure I wasn’t making a mistake. But this is where the Broncos are this season.
Tennessee has a very productive offense, the best red zone unit in the NFL by a long shot. However, the Titans are matched up against a pretty good defense. And Denver’s 3-0 against the AFC South this year.
What makes the Broncos an attractive pick this week is that Trevor Siemian appears likely to play. And the Broncos are a better-than-average team when they have a perfectly average quarterback playing. Can you imagine how good they’d be with a legitimate starter? And, damn, John Elway is bad at picking quarterbacks.
Broncos (+2) over TITANS
Julio Jones is probably going to play, but there’s some talk that he’ll mostly be a decoy. That’s probably enough to fool the Rams.
I’m still picking the Rams this week.
Jeff Fisher is bad coach, but a good excuse-maker. It’s pretty clear that his job isn’t safe. He’s gone from making excuses for the team’s losses to trying to throw his general manager under the bus for the team’s fifth-straight nonwinning season.
Boos from the home crowd won’t be well-received. Fisher’s desperate, so I would expect him to pull out a couple of meaningless wins over the last four games of the season. The guy always finds his way back to 7-9.
RAMS (+6) over Falcons
Woof. The AFC South is terrible. I think the Colts will end up getting the honor of being the team dispatched in an ugly loss on Wild Card Weekend.
COLTS (-6.5) over Texans
Washington is 7-2 against the spread in its last nine division games.
Washington (-2.5) over EAGLES
Miami is 0-12 against the spread in its last dozen December games. It’s amazing how bad the Dolphins have been over the years, which makes it all the more entertaining to see that they may have kind of figured out a way past that. I’m not especially confident in this pick since Mike Pouncey probably isn’t going to play.
DOLPHINS (+2) over Cardinals
This game sounded like such a winner back in August.
PANTHERS (-1.5) over Chargers
The Lions won their first game of the season where they weren’t trailing at some point in the fourth quarter last week against the Saints. It’ll be two in a row this week.
LIONS (-7.5) over Bears
A game so bad it could be good!
49ERS (-3) over Jets
Ahoy! The Buccaneers are my pick to win the NFC South because the Falcons can’t have anything nice. The over/under is 51. Take the over. Hell, I’d take the over in this one if it were set at 61 points.
BUCCANEERS (-2.5) over Saints
Seattle on the road without Earl Thomas ... without one of the game’s best safeties and they’re taking on Aaron Rodgers? Pass. Geoff Schwartz took a closer look at this game, and found that the Seahawks actually have quite a bit going for them. However, it’s a road game in Green Bay with several inches of snow expected.
PACKERS (+2.5) over Seahawks
The Cowboys are 1-6 against the spread as a road favorite against the Giants. However, this is the Giants. They’ve won three of their last 20 as an underdog. This is just a simple matter of picking the better team. Don’t overthink it.
Cowboys (-3.5) over GIANTS
I just want to see the Patriots win with a play that exploits some wrinkle in the rulebook and then watch this spring when John Harbaugh campaigns to have that rule changed.
Ravens (+7) over PATRIOTS
