The 2016 NFL season has featured several teams with questions or gaps at starting quarterback. The 2017 NFL Draft may not be able to provide any answers.
Todd McShay’s 2017 NFL mock draft is bad news for quarterback-needy teams
The teams at the top of the draft may have to focus on defense instead.
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According to ESPN Insider’s Todd McShay and SB Nation’s Dan Kadar, teams at the top of the draft would have to make a major reach to select a passer next May. North Carolina’s Mitch Trubisky, the current front-runner among QB prospects, is no lock to be a first-round draft choice. Behind him, talented-but-flawed players like Deshaun Watson and DeShone Kizer will have to raise their stock significantly in workouts to continue a tradition of quarterbacks at the top overall spot.
Instead, defensive players have taken over the deep end of the draft pool. McShay’s top six picks are all primarily defensive players (hello, Jabrill Peppers!), while Kadar’s top four are more interested in tackles than touchdowns. At the top of the wish list are standouts like Texas A&M’s Myles Garrett (who the Browns reportedly love), Alabama’s Jonathan Allen (15 QB hurries), and the aforementioned Peppers.
That’s not the only trend that stands out between the two mock drafts. Here’s what else we can expect from the 2017 draft, now a mere five months away. Note that Kadar’s most recent (non-SEC) mock draft only runs 20 picks deep, but several needs and wants across the NFL become apparent between the two prognosticators.
The teams who need a quarterback the most won’t get one.
Five of the six teams at the top of the draft order fell down the standings at least partly due to quarterback problems. The Browns, 49ers, Bears, and Jets have all started multiple passers this season. The Jaguars, set to pick No. 3 overall, maybe be waiting for a Blake Bortles revelation that never comes.
The answer won’t come in the first round of the 2017 draft. While Trubisky has earned some love from the experts, the uncertain situation behind the UNC quarterback and his peers Watson and Kizer make a top 15 selection seem like a stretch this far from draft day.
No offensive lineman is worth a top 10 selection.
McShay’s first offensive tackle off the board is Alabama’s Cam Robinson at No. 13. Kadar doesn’t have a single lineman in his top 20. While Robinson and Wisconsin’s Ryan Ramczyk could both work their way up the draft ladder, 2017 won’t just be a bad year for passers, but also the hogs tasked with keeping them upright.
The Titans need playmakers.
Tennessee is wealthy with draft capital in 2017 after shipping last year’s No. 1 overall pick to the Rams. As part of that deal, the Titans will have what projects to be a top-five draft selection next spring on top of their own pick, which should land in the mid-to-late teens. Both McShay and Kadar have Tennessee selecting a wideout with one of those picks, which almost makes too much sense.
Marcus Mariota has developed into a dynamic and dangerous passing threat despite a mostly-anonymous receiving corps in Nashville. While Rishard Matthews and Tajae Sharpe are talented wideouts, the team needs a true No. 1 receiver to break open defenses and maximize Mariota’s potential. For McShay, that’s Washington’s John Ross. For Kadar, that’s Western Michigan’s Corey Davis.
The Packers are getting a running back.
GM Ted Thompson has never drafted a tailback in the first round. The last time Green Bay spent that kind of pick on a runner was 1990, when Darrell Thompson moved east from Minnesota and rushed for just 1,641 yards in five disappointing seasons.
But with a converted wide receiver currently leading the Packer backfield and Eddie Lacy’s status constantly in flux, it may be time for Thompson to buck his own trend. Both ESPN and SB Nation have Green Bay adding prolific college backs to its roster in May. D’Onta Foreman, the NCAA’s leading rusher in 2016, and Florida State record-holder Dalvin Cook are both early choices to give Aaron Rodgers some ground support next fall.
Consensus All-American Zach Cunningham isn’t a consensus first-round draft pick.
Cunningham was the first player in Vanderbilt history to be named a first-team All-American by every leading publication (including SB Nation). The rangy athlete has the size (6’4, 230 lbs), strength, and speed to play as an inside or outside linebacker in the NFL. But while Kadar pegs him as a top 20 selection, McShay doesn’t see the leader of the Commodore defense as a worthy first rounder.
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