Dolphins vs. Jets 2016 picks and predictions: Miami favored in the battle of the backups

When the NFL scheduled an AFC East tilt for its first Saturday night game of the season, it probably wasn’t betting on a showdown between backup quarterbacks Bryce Petty and Matt Moore.

Injuries and ineffective play have dulled the luster from Week 15’s Jets-Dolphins matchup. Miami has exceeded expectations by climbing back into the playoff race despite a 1-4 start, but will have to play out their near future with Moore behind center after Ryan Tannehill suffered a sprained ACL and MCL in last week’s win over the Cardinals. Moore has the chops to keep the Dolphins rolling, but he’s got work to do to bring the team to its first postseason since 2008.

The Jets will turn to a backup quarterback as well, though in this case it’s due to incompetence rather than injury. Ryan Fitzpatrick had the lowest passer rating of any starting QB in 2016, one season after reviving his career with a 31-touchdown performance. His inability to lead an offense has taken his team from 10-6 to 4-9 this fall.

That allowed Geno Smith to briefly regain his starting role, but Fitzpatrick wound up back in the driver’s seat after Smith tore his ACL in his lone start of the season. Fitzpatrick remained the team’s primary starter, but Petty pushed him for the job in the middle of a lost season. After a Week 13 loss to the Colts, head coach Todd Bowles turned to the second-year passer in hopes of seeing what the young prospect can bring to the offense.

So far, the returns haven’t been entirely encouraging. Petty has completed fewer than 59 percent of his passes and has thrown twice as many interceptions (four) as touchdowns (two). Moore has a much smaller sample size with which to work — he’s thrown only 35 passes the past five years — but he’s been roughly as ineffective as Petty in that span.

The Dolphins will have to hope Jay Ajayi can round back into his early-season form to help take the pressure off his offense’s passing game. The second-year tailback burst onto the scene by gaining more than 500 rushing yards in a three-game span, but has failed to match that success lately. Ajayi hasn’t gained 80 yards or more in Miami’s last five games.

Bringing Moore into the fold has turned what likely would have been a clean sweep for the Dolphins into some unlikely love for the Jets. CBS Sports’ experts overwhelmingly leaned toward Miami, but New York still managed to catch Will Brinson’s eye. ESPN’s picks began to shift back toward Petty, even though the majority of the network’s writers sided with the Dolphins.

At SB Nation, the picks went 6-3 in Miami’s favor.