NFL picks against the spread, Week 15: Lions and Titans are the best underdog bets this week

Update: We told you not to bet on the Jets, and, well, we were right.

Let’s start with the NFL’s early holiday present to us, the AFC East sadness bowl happening Saturday night in New Jersey. The Dolphins are 2.5-point favorites over the Jets. Not even a field goal against Bryce Petty.

I’d take it. The Jets are T R A S H this season, yet again. The Dolphins, meanwhile, seemed to have found their way out of the wilderness under Adam Gase. They’re doing it with Matt Moore at quarterback now, and that’s fine. The secret to their recent success was keeping Ryan Tannehill minimized in game-manager mode. They can do the same with Moore.

It’s more than enough to beat the Jets and the 2.5-point spread.

Dolphins (-2.5) over JETS

A quick reminder. All of our odds come via OddsShark. We’ll have these updated as the lines change on Sunday morning too. Be sure to check back before the games and keep it refreshed.

Packers (-4) over BEARS

It’s going to be stupid cold for this game, MAYBE into the low single digits for the high. I can’t imagine anything less fun than sitting outside watching the Bears and Matt Barkley play ... or watching it inside for that matter. Aaron Rodgers is hobbled, but intends to play. Take the Packers.

Colts (+5) over VIKINGS

The Vikings do have Adrian Peterson back this week. Unfortunately, they have the same garbage offensive line. Not even Peterson in his prime would be enough to overcome that.

Besides, the Colts are red hot, 2-0 against the spread in their last two road games.

Steelers (-3) over BENGALS

At least we’ll have Vontaze Burfict to make this game interesting.

Lions (+4.5) over GIANTS

This game really could go either way, as Geoff Schwartz, who used to work for both of these teams, pointed out in his examination of the matchup. Both teams are 9-4, but the Lions are a solid 8-5 against the spread compared to the Giants at 6-5-2.

BILLS (-10.5) over Browns

I don’t feel all that confident in the Bills covering a 10-point spread against the Browns. Rex Ryan’s team have a knack for letting incompetence get the better of them at the most inexplicable times. Hell, I wouldn’t be all that surprised if the Browns managed to pull out the win this week, but I wouldn’t bet on it either.

RAVENS (-5.5) over Eagles

Both of these teams are nearly unwatchable at this point in the season. I’m picking the Ravens because of their defense.

TEXANS (-3.5) over Jaguars

I really hope the Titans edge out the Texans to win the AFC South. I think that’s our best bet to spare us from an ugly playoff game in the Division round. But I’m not all that confident. The Texans are 7-6 and have an edge thanks largely to their perfect 4-0 record against the division.

Titans (+6) over CHIEFS

I like the Chiefs to win this game. In fact, I kind of wonder if Justin Houston and Eric Berry can’t take a little magic out of the Titans awesome red zone offense, which is scoring at a 71 percent clip. This should end up being a close game, and I’ll take the Titans to cover.

CARDINALS (-3) over Saints

I went back and forth on this one. The Saints are 8-1-1 against the spread in their last 10 games as an underdog. They’re capable of scoring 35 points any week. However, Arizona’s defense is stingy at home, allowing an average of 14.1 points at home. Plus, the last six times these teams have met, the visitor is 0-6 straight up and against the spread.

FALCONS (-14) over 49ers

This is a great chance for Matt Ryan to pad his MVP stats.

Raiders (-2.5) over CHARGERS

The Chargers have one foot out the door to Los Angeles and the city of San Diego has basically told Dean Spanos not to let the door hit him in the ass on his way out. Spanos is the one who has to be Stan Kroenke’s tenant. I kind of feel sorry for the Chargers players and their fans, who clearly deserve better.

The Raiders shouldn’t have any problems in this one, especially with a few extra days of rest under their belt since they played the Thursday game in Week 14.

Patriots (-3) over BRONCOS

Denver’s defense could give Tom Brady and Co. a hard time this week. I’m kind of anxious to see if they do, because it might give us a good idea if the Patriots will struggle against a good defense in the playoffs. They won’t struggle against Trevor Siemian and this terrible offense though, which is why they’re a safe bet to beat a three-point spread.

COWBOYS (-7) over Buccaneers

The Bucs are red hot, thanks to their defense. They still shouldn’t be much of a problem for the Cowboys.

WASHINGTON (-7) over Panthers

The Josh Norman revenge game! I’m sure we won’t hear anything about that. Washington seems like a good team that’s prone to a collapse, but I’m picking them because the Panthers have already collapsed.