Patriots vs. Cowboys Super Bowl matchup will happen, if you go by point differential

Add up points scored, subtract points allowed, and you’ve got a Patriots-Cowboys matchup waiting for Super Bowl LI.

It’s not bold to suggest the league’s two top teams will meet in the biggest game of the year. Scoring differential is an imperfect way to judge NFL teams. Blowouts against bad teams can wash out close wins and losses when totaling up up a team’s points scored and subtracting the points it has given up.

But the metric has its merits. It can point out when a division leader has failed to live up to its record, like when the Texans climbed to 6-3 but had been outscored by 27 points through nine weeks. They’ve gone 1-3 since.

Differential has also been able to help decipher which teams will make it to the Super Bowl, as NFL.com senior analyst Gil Brandt points out. A look at the last five title games shows at least one team in the top four has made it to the season’s final contest each year.

But correlation doesn’t mean causation, and while teams with the highest scoring gaps often make it to the Super Bowl, that’s no hard and fast rule. Just look at 2012, when a 9-7 Giants team beat the Patriots despite getting outscored during the regular season. Three of the last five NFL champions have had differentials ranked 10th or worse.

If we can expect at least one top-four team to make it to Houston this winter, which teams are in the best shape? As Brandt points out, New England and Dallas top the list, but they’ve got company.

The top three spots seem pretty secure, but the Steelers’ hold on No. 4 is tenuous. With the exception of the Ravens, all these teams seem like safe bets to make it to the postseason. The Patriots and Chiefs can clinch playoff berths this week, and the Seahawks already did Thursday night with a win over the Rams (one that also improved their net points to 63). Those top seven teams are also the top seven betting favorites to win this year’s big game.

Scoring differential doesn’t tell the story of a rising team like Tampa Bay or the close game skill of Detroit, but it lays a basic blueprint from which we can determine 2016’s contenders. History shows there’s plenty of room for teams like the Buccaneers, Lions, and Raiders to rise from the middle of the ranks and unveil a championship banner next fall. But with the Patriots and Cowboys comfortably rolling opponents, it’s no surprise they’re the safest bets when it comes to Super Bowl LI.