Bengals vs. Texans 2016 picks and predictions: Houston a slight favorite despite QB controversy

The Houston Texans’ offensive woes finally reached a breaking point last week against the lowly Jaguars. Bill O’Brien benched a $37 million quarterback for one who has a cap hit of just under $700,000 this year.

While wage discrepancy is more an indictment on the front office handing out large contracts, the Texans (8-6) announced this week that they will start Tom Savage over Brock Osweiler against the Bengals (5-8-1) as the AFC South title remains within reach. Savage completed 23 of 36 passes for 260 yards after replacing Osweiler against Jacksonville, leading a comeback victory at home. In his third season in the NFL, Savage attempted 17 more passes on Sunday than he had in his previous two appearances combined.

Now the QB with a career 73.8 rating will face a defense giving up the 13th-fewest passing yards per game in the league (241.6) — not to mention tied for sixth in the league with 15 interceptions. Savage will have a home crowd behind him, but it’s still a tough task.

The Texans give up the fewest yards per game in the league (306.5) and just 21 points per game on average, which will help their cause against a Bengals team that has attempted the ninth-most rushing plays in the NFL (389).

Cincinnati is coming off a rough loss at home to division rival Pittsburgh that saw the Steelers rally back from a 20-9 halftime deficit. The Bengals have been eliminated from the playoff race and their star wideout, A.J. Green, has been dealing with a hamstring injury that’s kept him out since late November.

Even still, ESPN’s experts see this game as a toss-up. Over at CBS Sports, five of their eight writers are going with Houston. Here at SB Nation, there’s way less faith in a Bengals upset. Only Joel Thorman believes Cincinnati will notch a win in Houston.

There’s certainly more incentive for the Texans here. Houston can clinch the AFC South with a victory plus a Tennessee. The Texans play the Titans on the road in Week 17 in what would be a de facto title game should the division standings remain unchanged this week.