Week 17 of the season is a lot like the third week of the preseason. The starters are out there for a little bit, a quarter or two, and then the rest of the roster starts to get some reps. Sure, there are a few teams, like the Packers and the Lions, playing meaningful football this Sunday, but for the most part, game will be incredibly dull or, if we’re lucky, downright strange by the time the fourth quarter starts.
NFL picks against the spread, Week 17: Don’t bet against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers
Pick the Packers this week, and plenty of helpful advice for the other games, some that mean something and a lot that don’t.
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It also makes it hard as hell to pick games. How are you supposed to handicap a game when Josh Johnson is taking snaps?
So let’s start with the games where teams are going to be resting their starters, or should be anyway. Even when a coach says he’s going to treat the Week 17 like any other game, that usually only holds true for a quarter or so. So ignore the coach speak for now.
Once again, all odds come via OddsShark. Stay tuned, we’ll update as the lines move, and I expect them to move plenty. Home team is in all caps.
EAGLES (+5.5) over Cowboys
We’re probably going to see Tony Romo, but I doubt we’ll see him for the entire game. That means Mark Sanchez is getting reps. This game means something for the Eagles, so I’m picking them to show up for a big game that doesn’t matter.
Browns (+5.5) over STEELERS
Ben Roethlisberger has two Super Bowl rings and no bye next week. The Steelers also have the third seed locked up, so you can expect the starting offense to be resting most of this game.
WASHINGTON (-7.5) over Giants
Washington is still playing for an outside shot at the playoffs. The Giants have clinched the fifth spot no matter what happens.
Texans (+4) over TITANS
This is a meaningless game for the Texans, but I expect them to get Tom Savage reps with the starters for a bit. That should be good enough to beat the Titans without Marcus Mariota.
There are a few more games that are harder to read. In theory, teams like the Patriots and Falcons should be able to put it in cruise control this week. They have their playoff spots clinched, but they’re still vying for position.
Saints (+8) over FALCONS
Atlanta might actually have to go out and try to win this one. If they slip up here and the Seahawks beat the 49ers, which is to be expected, the Falcons could lose the second seed and the bye and a home game in the division round. I fully expect them to have it under control early enough to get the backups in there and let the Saints beat the spread.
Who’s in and who’s out in the playoff picture?
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Which teams will join the Cowboys in the postseason? Check out the complete standings.
DOLPHINS (+9) over Patriots
The Patriots need a win to lock up the No. 1 seed. They can also get that if the Raiders lose to the Broncos, which seems likely. However, the Patriots play at 1 p.m. ET and the Raiders don’t play until 4:25 p.m.
What probably happens here is that the Patriots get things under control early and send in the clowns. It’s worth pointing out that they might do that anyway since winning without Tom Brady wasn’t a huge challenge earlier in the season.
The Dolphins have their spot clinched, too, but they have the chance to get the fifth seed instead of the sixth if they win AND the Chiefs lose to the Chargers, which isn’t all that likely.
Chiefs (-4) over CHARGERS
This could be it for football in San Diego. For that reason alone, I’m tempted to pick the Chargers here. But nice narratives aside, that’s just too much of a stretch. Have you seen the Chargers play lately? They lost to the Browns.
Seahawks (-9) over 49ERS
Forget the playoffs, I would pick the Seahawks as 9-point favorites against the miserable 49ers no matter the circumstances.
Raiders (+1.5) over BRONCOS
The Raiders will most likely have their starting offense in there. Matt McGloin needs reps with the ones, as many as he can get, in the wake of Derek Carr’s injury last week. Oakland also has the second seed on the line. They need a win or a Chiefs loss to clinch it. And remember there’s that outside shot at the Patriots losing to the Dolphins and the Raiders getting the top seed.
But the reason I’m picking this game is because we’re likely going to see Paxton Lynch playing quarterback for the Broncos, at least for a bit.
BUCCANEERS (-3.5) over Panthers
Tampa Bay has a 1 percent shot at the playoffs, maybe slightly less if you really did the math. They have to win and have a bunch of other dominoes fall their way. It’s not going to happen, but they should at least beat the Panthers pretty good.
Packers (-3) over LIONS
This is the big one, the one for all the marbles. I won’t rehash the various scenarios for the outcome of this game, but suffice it to say that neither team can afford to lose.
I can save you some words here. I’m not picking against Aaron Rodgers. That offense has just been too good lately. Sure, Dom Capers has the defense playing much better too, but DO NOT BET AGAINST AARON RODGERS.
Alright, here are my picks for the trash games.
Cardinals (-6.5) over RAMS
Jaguars (+4.5) over COLTS
Bills (-3.5) over JETS
BENGALS (+1.5) over Ravens
Bears (+6.5) over VIKINGS
