Jameis Winston’s patience and vision put the Buccaneers in the playoff hunt

Less than two years after bottoming out and selecting Jameis Winston with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in position for a playoff spot. It couldn’t happen without their franchise quarterback.

Winston has overcome a slow start to shake off any semblance of a sophomore slump and take his team from 1-3 to 7-5 and a place in the thick of the postseason race. The Buccaneers currently hold the sixth and final NFC playoff spot and are just a tiebreaker away from reigning over the NFC South. Their second-year quarterback has the Bucs in the midst of a four-game winning streak that includes victories over Super Bowl contenders like Kansas City and Seattle.

Winston’s averages during that span? 286 passing yards per game, a 67.7 percent completion rate, an efficient 8.8 yards per pass, and a 6:3 TD:INT ratio. While Tampa Bay rallied to playoff position, the 2013 Heisman Trophy winner posted a 100.9 passer rating — better than all but six other quarterbacks in the NFL.

A better understanding of opponent coverage, thinking smaller, and protecting the ball have led to a key turnaround in what looked like a lost year through one quarter of the 2016 season. Winston’s propensity for big plays paid off in an opening day upset of the Falcons, then failed him in the three-game skid that followed. He completed just over 58 percent of his passes through four games, threw for only 6.2 yards per pass, and held a dead-even 8:8 TD:INT ratio.

His ability to extend plays outside the pocket was both a blessing and a curse for a quarterback who struggled to protect the ball; Winston fumbled three times in those first four games, losing two. All signs pointed to a regression in year two, and Tampa Bay was primed to spiral back to the high draft position it had maintained since 2011.

His play was enough to ignite warning flares over head coach Dirk Koetter’s head. Koetter, who was Winston’s offensive coordinator last fall before taking the lead role in 2016, told reporters he was “very concerned” with his young QB after the team’s 1-3 start.

”He’s not regressing, but we’ve got to take care of the football,” Koetter said after Tampa Bay’s loss to Denver. “I mean, we’ve got to take care of the football. We can’t turn it over three times in a half. We just can’t do that.”

But the cliffs that propped up the impulsive passer who starred at Florida State began to erode, giving way to the foundation for an upper-tier NFL quarterback. Winston’s growth has been the product of his patience. Sunday’s win over the Chargers showcased his ability to progress through his reads and find windows of opportunity rather than trying to blast holes through closed doors.

For example, here’s Winston staring daggers through his primary receiver in 2015. This set up an easy pick-six for Josh Norman during the QB’s rookie season (courtesy of USA Today):

Winston settles on a target — and not even a viable one, as his wideout has inexplicably stopped 7 yards into his route on third-and-8 — and trusts everything will work out in the end. Instead, it ends as poorly as a passing play can.

Since then, Winston has gotten much better in regards to square pegs and round holes. Here he is in Week 13 against the Chargers, buying time against the San Diego pass rush (thanks to some solid blocking) before checking down to Doug Martin for a 23-yard gain.

But that doesn’t mean Winston’s risk-taking playmaking has left him. He’s just gotten better about the choices he makes. He’s developed into a much more accurate passer who understands how his receivers’ routes will affect coverage. Case in point:

With the Buccaneers trailing in the fourth quarter, Winston throws what would become the game-winning touchdown by finding Cameron Brate’s perfect window of opportunity in the end zone. He quickly cycles through his three wideouts along the left sideline and makes a decision. Freddie Martino, running to the corner of the end zone, is covered. Russell Shepard, second from the top, is wide open for first-down yardage after a quick button hook.

But Brate found a seam in the Chargers secondary, and he has a split second before San Diego’s safety help erases him from the list of viable targets. Winston sees this and delivers a perfectly timed, perfectly thrown pass that ultimately won his team the game.

And just because Winston’s athleticism is what gives him the ability to truly stand out, here’s a bonus look at what he can do when his legs, brain, and arm all operate on the same level.

Is it a stupid play? Probably. Winston has done a strong enough job managing risk in the pocket that he’s allowed a couple of these per game — especially since he’s proven time and time again he can pull moves like these off in both the NCAA and NFL.

Winston’s confidence is shining through on the field, and that’s affected everyone on the Tampa sideline, all the way up to the coaching staff.

“I just think we’re one of those teams that is starting to believe,” Koetter said after Sunday’s win. “It’s crazy what confidence can do when you start making plays. It seems to build on itself.”

This growth is even more impressive when you consider Winston’s supporting cast. Mike Evans is playing at a Pro Bowl level and has nearly cut his drop rate in half this fall, but ranks second in the NFL with six drops in 2016. Brate is making a mark in his second season, but he’s not yet a full-time threat at tight end. Vincent Jackson is injured. Cecil Shorts is a refugee from the league’s Island of Misfit Toys (Jacksonville) and now also injured. Martino and Shepard are young and unproven.

Despite that, Winston has emerged as a viable franchise cornerstone who has Tampa Bay in line for its first playoff appearance since 2007. He’s been better than 2015 NFL MVP Cam Newton. He’s thrown for more yards, more yards per pass, and a better QB rating than two-time Super Bowl winner Eli Manning.

The Buccaneers’ resurgence may not last through the season. The team may be 7-5, but a scoring differential of -8 puts them closer to 4-7-1 Cincinnati than teams like Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and division rival Atlanta. Their lack of a running threat — the Bucs rank 29th in the league in yards per carry — will put the offense squarely in the hands of a second-year quarterback in the midst of his first playoff run. The odds aren’t in Tampa Bay’s favor.

Even if the Bucs miss out on the postseason in 2016, they’ll still have the foundation for a revival. While the sample size for Winston’s upper-tier play is small, his improving ability to read defenses and take the right risks suggests it’s sustainable. The next step in Tampa Bay is to flank him with all the resources he’ll need to be successful. If he can do this with Mike Evans and not much else, just imagine how good he could be with a platoon of playmakers in his huddle.