The race to the NFL playoffs will come down to the final weeks of the regular season. Unless you’re a fan of the Cowboys, Patriots, or Seahawks, you’ve probably rolled through some complex tiebreaker scenarios just in case Week 17 leaves two teams tied atop your favorite division.
NFL playoff tiebreakers explained
A 12-step guide to unknotting division and wild card standings.
Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
The NFL’s tiebreaking procedures are arduous and thorough. You have to plow through 11 different steps before you get to the nuclear option of the league throwing up its hands and just flipping a coin. They range from the obvious (head-to-head results) to the obscure (net touchdowns in all games).
Here’s how the NFL unties its knots after Week 17. These tiebreakers are not cumulative. Whichever team can claim victory in the earliest entry on increasingly complex metrics advances. Therefore, a team could win the head-to-head battle with a division rival and lose every other measure and still advance to the postseason.
For two teams in the same division:
- Head-to-head results. Example: If the Ravens and Steelers have the same record, Baltimore would lead the division thanks to an earlier victory over Pittsburgh.
- Best win percentage in games played within the division. Example: The Falcons and Buccaneers are 1-1 head to head, but if Atlanta wins out against Carolina and New Orleans and Tampa Bay slips up down the stretch, the Falcons would win the NFC South thanks to the superior record against division foes.
- Best win percentage in common games. Example: The Falcons and Buccaneers play 12 games against 10 common opponents. Whoever has the best record in that stretch would win the tiebreaker.
- Best win percentage in games played within the conference. Just like No. 2, but across a 16-team conference instead of a four-team division.
- Strength of victory. This is the composite win percentage of the opponents a team has beaten over the course of the regular season. Example: By Week 13, Oakland had beaten 10 teams with a combined record of 68-76, giving the Raiders a .472 strength of victory.
- Strength of schedule. The composite win percentage of all the opponents a team has on its schedule, regardless of whether the team in the tiebreaker has beaten these opponents. Example: Through 13 weeks, the Patriots’ opponents went a combined 59-85, giving them a .409 strength of schedule.
- Best combined ranking in the conference in points scored and points allowed. Lowest score wins, so if your team is No. 1 in scoring and No. 1 in defense, it’d be untouchable in this metric.
- Best combined ranking across the NFL in points scored and points allowed. Just like No. 7, but expanded to the entire league.
- Best net points in common games. Go back to No. 3, and then figure out which of the two teams in the tiebreaker won by more points in those games. This is where sportsmanship starts to fly out the window.
- Best net points in all games. Example: The Titans and Texans have the same record, but Tennessee would win this tiebreaker because it has outscored all opponents this season by a net 12 points — considerably more than Houston’s -50.
- Best net touchdowns in all games. (Touchdowns scored) - (touchdowns allowed) over the course of the season.
- Flip a coin. The great equalizer!
So what if three (or more) teams tie atop the division? The rules remain the same, but make an exception to fit an extra team (or teams). If at any point during the tiebreak process one franchise drops out, the two (or three) remaining teams revert back to step one until a clear winner is determined.
So if the Colts, Texans, and Titans all tie at the end of 2016, they’d start at No. 1. If Titans dropped out on, say, strength of victory, the Colts and Texans would start the process again from the beginning.
That sets some clear definitions on division titles, but doesn’t address the AFC and NFC’s wild card spots. Unsurprisingly, the format is essentially the same — just with an emphasis on conference records in place of divisional ones.
- Head-to-head (if applicable).
- Best win percentage in games played within the conference.
- Best win percentage in common games (minimum of four).
- Strength of victory.
- Strength of schedule.
- Best combined ranking in the conference in points scored and points allowed.
- Best combined ranking across the NFL in points scored and points allowed.
- Best net points in conference games.
- Best net points in all games.
- Best net touchdowns in all games.
- Coin toss.
The moral of the story here? Hope your team wins enough games (and beats enough good teams) so it doesn’t have to rely on net points, net touchdowns, or — heavens forbid — the cruel fate of a flipped coin at the NFL’s headquarters.
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