Week 4 NFL picks against the spread: Sticking primarily at home, with two upsets in mind

The fourth week of the 2017 NFL season is upon us, and 30 of the 32 teams will be quarter of the way through their schedule by the time Monday Night Football wraps up. The Green Bay Packers got the week going with a win on Thursday Night Football, having little trouble with the Chicago Bears.

As we look ahead to the full Sunday and Monday slate of games, I’m here to offer some of my “best bets” of the week with some help from our friends at Odds Shark. I am taking part in the annual Westgate Super Contest, which requires me to select five games against the spread, based on a spread set Wednesday evening. Since the spread is set on Wednesday, you could very well have a better number for some of these games.

Here are my five Super Contest picks, with the home team listed in bold. For those new to gambling, -6.5 for the Cowboys means I think the Cowboys will win by seven or more points. +3 for the Ravens means I think they will lose by less than three.

The Cowboys offense has some question marks, but too many people are liking the Rams right now. They’re 2-1 top the NFC West, and coming off a close win over the 49ers. Maybe they are for real under Sean McVay, but I think we see some regression in Week 4. It’s going to come down to what Ezekiel Elliott puts together in the ground game.

Both teams are coming off tough losses, but it feels like people are quick to abandon the Ravens. The Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger in particular significantly different at home vs. on the road. I am often a fan of the home dog, so I’m going to jump on this one.

The Giants showed some life against the Philadelphia Eagles, but they’re still a bad football team. I think the Bucs are going to compete for the NFC South crown, and I’m comfortable laying the points even as the public loves the Giants this week.

It is worth noting I run Niners Nation for SB Nation, so you either think this is an awful pick because I’m a homer, or you think it’s a brilliant pick because I know something. What I do know is the Cardinals will be without their starting left guard, and could be without starting left tackle D.J. Humphries as well. At the very least, Humphries will be playing with some limitations. The 49ers got after Russell Wilson regularly two weeks ago, but Carson Palmer lacks the same mobility, or any mobility really. I would have liked the hook to make his seven points, but I think we see a close one.

The Raiders defense is abysmal, which bodes well for Trevor Siemian and company. I think the Raiders will compete for a playoff berth this season, but heading into Denver, they face a serious uphill climb against that defense.