Tom Brady is the NFL MVP frontrunner again, both by default and not

Tom Brady suddenly looks like a solid favorite to take home the third NFL MVP award of his storied career, and it’s sort of by default. That’s not an indictment of his recent play — it’s a function of a league that’s chewed up and spit out its stars in 2017.

Brady’s hot start has devolved into a pedestrian middle. The 40-year-old hasn’t been putting up MVP numbers the last three weeks. In that span, he’s failed to break the 300 passing yard plateau and has a disappointing 2:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His Monday Night Football performance against the Dolphins in Week 14 nearly derailed his team’s hopes for the top seed in the AFC, at least until the Patriots stole one on the road against the Steelers.

As Brady faded, the opportunity for a first-time MVP winner grew bigger and bigger — but there was no one left to seize it. And now, through a combination of occasionally great play and a lack of worthy challengers, the league is on the precipice of its oldest MVP ever.

Not by choice, of course. The 2017 season will be remembered for the injury gods’ brutal indifference toward rising and well-known stars:

Any other obvious names just haven’t been consistent enough to sneak in. Philip Rivers looked like a candidate when his bounceback year had the Chargers in line for a playoff berth after an 0-4 start, but Saturday’s loss to the Chiefs likely ended their playoff hopes — and his MVP bid.

Russell Wilson’s Sunday was spent turning the ball over to the Rams in the worst home loss of the Pete Carroll era, so he’s out. Case Keenum has been one of the league’s best stories after leading the Vikings to an NFC North title, but his numbers can’t match up with Brady’s.

Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith outdueled Brady in the 2017 season opener and looked like the league’s best passer through the first third of the season. He’s been trapped between two worlds in the nine weeks since, retreating back to old habits as Kansas City’s postseason push sputtered and restarted.

There’s still an outside chance that Todd Gurley or Le’Veon Bell could make a late surge for the brass ring, but neither has the outlier stats a tailback traditionally needs to earn top honors. And while a smattering of non-skill players like Jalen Ramsey and Jason Kelce have also been paramount to their teams’ success, they don’t have a prayer in a vote geared toward QBs and RBs.

And while Brady’s stats haven’t been great in recent weeks, you can’t argue with his results. His ability to reach an extra gear when his team needs him the most is something that will never translate to numbers beyond the five Super Bowl rings he’s already earned.

On Sunday, he showcased that innate ability by carving up the Steelers.

The future Hall of Famer, battered all evening by a Steelers pass rush nearly as relentless as the driving rain at Heinz Field, played his final meaningful drive of the evening with the poise and calmness of a first quarter possession in September. Brady stepped up in the pocket to deliver strike after strike to the one target who has been there for more big plays than anyone else: Rob Gronkowski.

While Dion Lewis would be the one to find the end zone with just under a minute to play, it was Brady and Gronkowski with four catches, 69 yards, and one embarrassingly easy two-point conversion between then, who powered New England’s comeback:

It’s not the only time Brady has dug his team out from a hole this fall. His eight-play, 75-yard drive in Week 3 prevented an upset loss to the Texans. His 49-yard touchdown drive against the Panthers the following week was only wiped out by New England’s early-season defensive incompetence in a 33-30 Carolina victory. Wins over the Saints, Buccaneers, Chargers, and Raiders were all buoyed by 300-plus-yard passing performances.

And while his statistical profile may have taken a downturn from last year’s 12-game performance in the regular season, it’s not significantly worse than the performances of the league’s other recent MVPs.

Brady will need to sling a few more touchdowns and finish strongly to avoid finishing last in most of these categories — any edge he’s got on Cam Newton is negated by the Carolina quarterback’s ability to run the ball — but these aren’t egregious stats for an MVP. He currently leads the league in passing yards and yards per pass while ranking second in QB rating and third in touchdown passes.

Two more big performances could give him the lead in an even more important stat for AP voters: wins.

Even so, the honor might be one Brady wants to avoid. He’s never won the Super Bowl after being crowned league MVP. In fact, no MVP has since Kurt Warner in 1999.

Brady’s 2007 Patriots smashed league offensive records in an 18-0 start that came crashing down against the immortal Eli Manning in Super Bowl XLII. He won the award again in 2010, then suffered an embarrassing Divisional round loss to the Jets in the ensuing postseason.

So for New England’s sake, maybe it’s time to root for Gurley over the final two weeks of 2017.