Broncos extending Von Miller early last year could have saved Texans from Brock Osweiler

The Denver Broncos had a problem in 2016. Von Miller, in the middle of ascending to his position as one of the greatest linebackers of the millennium, was in line for a new contract. He was primed for money previously unheard of for a defensive player, and it would take some creative salary cap management to keep him on board.

His impending free agency butted up against that of rising quarterback Brock Osweiler, a 2012 draftee who was groomed to take the reins once Peyton Manning retired. Osweiler went 5-2 as a starter in Manning’s stead in 2015, and while his numbers weren’t eye-opening, he was a young talent with a track record of winning. Both would be expensive to retain, but through creative accounting and the use of the annual franchise tag — an option teams can use that lock a single player onto the roster for one year at an average of the top five salaries at his position — general manager John Elway had a shot at holding on to both.

But when attempts to ink Miller to an extension failed and questions arose about the viability of Osweiler as a full-time starter, the Broncos were faced with an either/or franchise tag scenario. The honor went to Miller, who later worked out a six-year, $114.5 million deal with the team. That left the young quarterback to hit the market as an unrestricted free agent.

It was a move that looked bad for the Broncos at the time, but only negatively affected the Houston Texans. Osweiler earned a four-year, $72 million deal to relocate to Texas, seemingly giving the team the solution to its offensive woes while hitting reset on Denver’s passer rotation. One year later, the Broncos — at worst — broke even. The Texans now have to plan around one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league.

But here’s what could have happened if the Broncos extended Miller a year ago and given the franchise tag to Osweiler instead.

Osweiler upgraded to a better offensive line, better running game, and was given similarly talented, if less reliable, receivers in Houston. Regardless, his passer rating in his first full season as a starter dropped from 86.4 to 72.2. Both of Denver’s starters in 2016, Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch, performed better.

It’s tough to chalk up Osweiler’s awful play to learning the ropes and a lack of continuity with his new team. Three of his four worst performances of the season came in Week 11 or later, including an 11-pass, two-interception bottoming-out against the Jacksonville Jaguars that led to Tom Savage taking over under center. Since the Broncos failed to make the playoffs with two marginally better quarterbacks on the roster last fall, it’s tough to see them replicating a nine-win season in the AFC West with Osweiler as the starter.

However, since the team would have retained him with the franchise tag, the Broncos could have cut their losses with no salary cap repercussions this spring. Instead of making a guaranteed $37 million with the Texans and holding its cap hostage for at least two seasons, Denver would have paid out nearly $20 million in 2016 with no financial commitment moving forward.

That’s good news for the franchise, but bad news for Osweiler, whose stock took a major hit in 2016. He wouldn’t be able to sniff a four-year, $72 million deal in 2017, though he’d probably be able to recoup enough of that lost cash to break even on his Texans guarantee after earning big money in one extra year with the Broncos.

The Texans dodge a bullet in this scenario, although it’s unclear for how long. Without Osweiler on the market, quarterback would have remained a huge question mark for a team with one of the league’s most explosive defenses. Without a potential franchise passer on the market — a designation we now know was a huge overshoot for Osweiler — Houston has to go back to the drawing board. Its options:

— Re-sign Brian Hoyer, who was coming off his second-best season as a pro but threw four interceptions in a Wild Card de-pantsing against the Kansas City Chiefs.
— Turn the reins over to Savage, a 2014 fourth-round draft pick with, at the time, 19 passes and zero starts to his name.
— Select a veteran passer from the free agent scrap heap and roll the dice on the passers of the 2016 NFL Draft.

After letting Hoyer walk and waiting 14 agonizing games before inserting Savage into the lineup, the most likely scenario would be the third. Here’s what the team would have been looking at in free agency last spring. Keep in mind that at this point, the Texans are looking for a two- to three-year rental to keep a young quarterback’s seat warm. The Texans’ options, based on available quarterbacks who changed teams last fall, include:

— Hoyer
— Robert Griffin III
— Sam Bradford
— Nick Foles
— Matt Cassel
— Matt Schaub

There’s one palatable starter on that list, and it’s Bradford, who was anything but a guarantee to stay healthy and play at a high level in 2016. The Philadelphia Eagles re-signed him that spring, but later shipped him to the great north after Teddy Bridgewater’s catastrophic knee injury forced the Minnesota Vikings into panic mode. With Bradford locked into a two-year extension on March 1, Houston was likely faced with either trading away premium draft picks for the veteran, or rolling the dice with a player like Foles.

Foles didn’t sign with a team until August, and even then was relegated to backup duty with the Kansas City Chiefs. If the Texans saw him as the best of a limited bunch of options, it wouldn’t have taken significantly more than the $1.75 million Kansas City dedicated to him last summer.

Foles would have likely been a better option than Osweiler. Though he was coming off his worst season as a pro, his career 88.1 passer rating is higher than what the Texans’ passer produced last fall. The former Eagle played well in relief for the Chiefs; he won both of the games in which he played the bulk of the team’s snaps and completed more than 65 percent of his passes without throwing an interception.

His theoretical arrival in Texas leaves just one last piece of the puzzle: finding the young franchise quarterback Osweiler was supposed to be. The 2016 NFL Draft produced a pair of elite prospects at the top two spots between Cal’s Jared Goff and North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz. Each passer was drafted by a team that traded away significant capital just to have the chance to gamble on them.

The Tennessee Titans shipped out the right to draft Goff, as well as two late-round selections, to the Los Angeles Rams for two first-round picks, two second-round picks, and two third-round picks between 2016 and 2017. The Cleveland Browns, apparently wary of destroying another young quarterback, traded away the chance to select Wentz for two first-round picks, one second-round pick, and a third- and fourth-rounder over a three-year span.

Would the Texans have been desperate enough to hamstring their 2016 and 2017 draft classes to pick up either Goff or Wentz? Since this was the team that handed $72 million to a quarterback who failed to outplay a 39-year-old, can’t-feel-his-fingers Peyton Manning, it seems a reasonable bet. Let’s say Houston ships 2016’s first-, second-, and fourth-round picks and 2017’s first- and second-rounders to Cleveland. That would cost the team WR Will Fuller, a chance to draft LB Deion Jones (later traded for C Nick Martin), and RB Tyler Ervin, along with two key players from this year’s upcoming draft.

But it also gives them Wentz, who showed flashes of brilliance during a trying rookie season. Wentz outplayed Osweiler last year, posting higher completion rates and lower interception rates despite playing in an offense with similar levels of pass protection and fewer legitimate receiving threats. Wentz would have had the chance to usurp Foles early in the season, and based on his performance with the Eagles, likely would have transitioned into the team’s starting role around October.

Maybe that wouldn’t have moved the needle in 2016, but the Texans would almost certainly have been better off with a rising rookie passer with two playoff starts under his belt than their current scenario.

Without a franchise passer for which to trade, Philadelphia would stand pat at the No. 8 pick and could select either Laremy Tunsil or Jack Conklin to anchor its offensive line into the 2020s. With its third-round pick intact, the team would have the opportunity to add a promising mid-round quarterback — Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler, or even Dak Prescott.

That might not have been enough to convince the Eagles to part ways with Bradford, who would be the leader of a platoon that includes Chase Daniel and Mark Sanchez. Even the king’s ransom the Vikings offer after Bridgewater is lost for the season could prove insufficient, leading Minnesota to trade for Colin Kaepernick instead. That last part may be a long shot, but it’s certainly better than calling up Michael Vick or Matt Flynn.

Here’s what happens if the Broncos reach a contract extension with Von Miller before he becomes a free agent. With Miller locked down, the team can roll the dice by giving Osweiler Denver’s franchise tag -- much like Washington did last season with Kirk Cousins.

As a result, the Texans can find only a stopgap solution on the free agent market. Foles winds up as the team’s presumptive starter, but with the young veteran coming off his worst season as a pro, Houston’s front office would take the boldness it reserved for signing away the Broncos’ quarterback and invested it in a trade up to select Wentz.

Wentz, while imperfect, likely outplays Osweiler as he ascends to the team’s starting role early in his career. The Texans still win the weak AFC South and advance to the Divisional round of the playoffs, where the New England Patriots viciously remind the passer he’s a rookie who was playing FCS teams a season before. Still, the future is bright — or at least much brighter -- for a Houston franchise that might finally have found the passer it has been searching for since its inception.

Meanwhile, the Broncos break even, and the Eagles and Vikings possibly even get a little better in the long run, all because Osweiler played out his no-good, very-bad year in blue and orange.