Patrick Mahomes II lands in great spot with Chiefs

Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes II might be one of the biggest boom-or-bust prospects in this year’s NFL draft. The Kansas City Chiefs are taking a huge gamble here, trading away their 2018 first-round pick to move up and select Mahomes with the No. 10 pick.

The son of former MLB player Pat Mahomes, Mahomes II was drafted by the Detroit Tigers in 2014, but turned down a contract offer to play football at Texas Tech. Mahomes racked up 11,252 passing yards and 93 touchdowns in just three seasons with the Red Raiders. He was also an asset in the running game, rushing for 845 yards and 22 touchdowns in his college career.

Thanks to his impressive workouts, Mahomes’ stock soared throughout the pre-draft process. He was a perfect fit in Kliff Kingsbury’s air raid offense, but the big challenge for him will be adjusting to the NFL style. While an exciting prospect, Mahomes will need to be brought along slowly at the professional level. He’ll at least have an opportunity to sit and learn behind Alex Smith.

Mahomes has tools to spare. At 6’2, 225 pounds, he has the right build for an NFL quarterback. His arm strength and confidence are some of his biggest attributes — Mahomes can gun it down the field even without the need to step into his throw, like he did with this touchdown pass against Baylor:

Mahomes’ ability to place the ball where he wants with just a flick of the wrist is impressive, and his fearless gunslinging style can be a joy to watch. His accuracy improved every year he was in college, going from a 56.8 completion percentage his freshman year to 65.7 last season.

When the play breaks down, Mahomes has the agility and running skills to escape pressure and improvise on the fly.

He also had a strong performance at Texas Tech’s pro day, including this 78-yard bullet that almost looks too easy.

Though Mahomes is typecast as a gunslinger, there’s almost a method to his madness. During a tape session with Bleacher Report’s Doug Farrar, Mahomes explained that he developed his play style due to the Big 12’s general wackiness, where defense is optional and you have to keep scoring points just to keep up.

B/R: Some people have called you a gunslinger. You call yourself a gunslinger. Are you conscious of having to be more careful with these throws against NFL defenses?

Mahomes: Yeah, definitely. This is a whole different football game than playing in the Big 12—when you have to score 50 points a game to win because the offenses are so good, you have to take more chances and put the ball downfield more. In the NFL, you might be facing a coverage where you don’t need to score—you’d like to, but if it’s 3rd-and-15, you might want to take a short pass, get better field position, punt the ball and stuff like that. That’s a win, and you’ve got to know what the situations are, and you’ve got to realize that you have fewer possessions than you have in the Big 12.

For starters, Mahomes will have to break the stigma of air raid quarterbacks not being able to hack it in the NFL. He’s a better passer than those before him from similar systems, like Brandon Weeden, Geno Smith, or Case Keenum, but it’s still not a great track record.

In addition to scheme adjustments, Mahomes’ throwing mechanics need almost a complete overhaul. His footwork is spotty at best. He’s prone to throwing off his back foot, and his arm motion can be all over the map. Sure, Mahomes has the arm power to make certain throws, but to be a complete passer, he’ll have to learn to step into his passes and develop a more consistent technique.

In addition, Mahomes’ devil-may-care style, while fun, could be disastrous at the next level. There’s a fine line between fearlessness and recklessness in the NFL, and Mahomes has to avoid dancing over that line. One of his biggest obstacles will be learning to be patient enough and let plays develop, rather than bailing the pocket and trying to make something happen by himself. He committed six fumbles last year and needs to do a better job taking care of the ball.

There’s a lot of upside to Mahomes, but he also carries plenty of risk. The Chiefs would be wise not to rush his development.

Indeed! Pat Mahomes spent 11 years as a journeyman pitcher in MLB, having runs with the Minnesota Twins, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, Texas Rangers, Chicago Cubs, and Pittsburgh Pirates. He hung up the cleats with a 42-39 record, 5.47 ERA, and 452 strikeouts in 709 career innings.

Part of Mahomes II’s poor mechanics are likely because of his baseball background and lineage. He spent his childhood traveling around the country during his father’s baseball career, and played both sports at Texas Tech for a few years, before leaving the baseball team in 2016 to focus on football. While Russell Wilson is touted as a success story playing both baseball and football, there are also two-sport players like Jake Locker and Brandon Weeden, both of whom failed to make an impact in the NFL.

They still have Alex Smith, so Mahomes won’t be pressured to start right away. When he does, he brings a bigger arm that Smith never had, giving the Chiefs’ offense a more dynamic approach. If all goes well, Mahomes could be a natural successor to Smith.