Sammy Watkins has one last chance to make good with the Bills

2017 is Sammy Watkins’ last chance to prove Buffalo right.

The talented wide receiver cost the Bills two premium first-round draft picks nearly four years ago, but injuries have prevented him from blossoming into the consistent scoring threat Buffalo has needed for years. Instead, the player who management hoped would end a 17-year streak of regular-season futility has been so frustrating he couldn’t even earn the team option at the end of his rookie contract.

The Bills decided to let their erstwhile No. 1 receiver test free agency next season rather than retain him for $13.26 million. That kind of dismissal should light a fire under the young receiver, making him one of the AFC’s most dangerous scoring threats.

“My job is to go out there and earn it and play and stay healthy,” Watkins told the Bills’ official team site. “And that’s my goal this year.”

Staying healthy has been his biggest problem, though.

When healthy, Watkins is one of the league’s most explosive players. He combines a 4.4-second 40-yard dash speed with elite acceleration, allowing him to separate from defensive backs and then carry the ball across the goal line.

Having the kind of player who can bail you out on third-and-14 is a boon for quarterback Tyrod Taylor. Watkins’ strong hands and compact physique allow him to bully defenders and get to the ball first, making him an easy target downfield. At 24 years old and headed into his fourth season as a pro, he should be nearing his peak as an NFL receiver, too.

That is, as long as he can stay on the field.

When he’s on top of his game, the electric athlete is worthy of being paid like an elite wideout. But injuries have dogged him each season of his career.

The only season in which he’s played 16 games was his rookie year, and even then he was limited. Broken ribs, a groin injury, and a hip problem that required surgery the following offseason kept him from reaching his full potential. He had his best season in 2015 with an electric 1,047-yard, nine-touchdown performance, but he missed three games with leg injuries.

The injury curse came to a head last fall. Watkins played in only eight games, missing half the season for a team in desperate need of offensive punch. A broken foot was the latest addition to his list of maladies, keeping him from the field and sapping his explosive speed on it. His output dropped across the board: His receptions per game fell to 3.5, he scored just two touchdowns, and his catch rate slipped from 62.5 percent to 53.8.

Those are the numbers of a fourth receiver, not the best player in the league. The frustrating thing — for both Buffalo and Watkins — is that he has all the potential to be the latter.

Watkins exploded into the national consciousness with 1,450 yards from scrimmage as a true freshman at Clemson. As a junior, he tallied 1,464 receiving yards and scored a dozen touchdowns to emerge as the FBS’ preeminent playmaker. That put him at the top of a stacked list of draft-eligible receivers.

He came close to those heights in his second year in Buffalo, where his 17.5 yards per reception cemented his status as a top-notch deep threat. He had five 100-yard games, including an 11-catch, 136-yard performance that knocked the Jets out of the playoffs in Week 17. In his final six games, he had 679 yards and six touchdowns, looking the part of a fourth-overall draft pick along the way.

He couldn’t touch that output in 2016, forcing a do-or-die situation in 2017. A healthy Watkins will pair with LeSean McCoy and Taylor to make Buffalo a playoff contender. With a big payday looming on his performance, he’ll have more pressure on his shoulders than ever before. The idea of a “contract-year performance” — a season of strong play when the opportunity for a massive contract hangs in the balance — doesn’t largely hold true for NFL athletes, but all eyes will be on the young wideout who still has plenty to prove.

However, no matter his performance, his time with the Bills is almost certainly coming to a close in 2017. The team had little choice but to decline the option that would have paid a player with 430 receiving yards last season a base salary more than $6 million higher than Antonio Brown’s.

Moving up to No. 4 to select Watkins didn’t just cost Buffalo two first-round picks; it also cost the team a shot at drafting a pair of franchise receivers. The Bills shipped away the No. 9 pick in 2014 and the No. 19 pick in 2015 — along with a 2015 fourth-rounder — for the privilege of drafting the Clemson wideout. Here’s how his career has stacked up against the other 11 receivers drafted in the first two rounds that year:

That’s a long list of players who have outperformed the top WR selected, headlined by Mike Evans and Odell Beckham Jr., who both look like franchise cornerstones through their first three seasons. Two productive players taken at the end of the second round, Allen Robinson and Jarvis Landry, underscore just how deep the 2014 draft was at the position and how excessive it was for the Bills to trade up.

Watkins’ production most closely mirrors Davante Adams’ — the 53rd pick in the draft. Though Adams has benefited by playing with Aaron Rodgers and not Taylor, that’s clearly a comparison the former No. 4 overall selection would like to avoid.

A shallow crop of receivers in the 2015 draft made trading away that future pick less regrettable — the top wideouts available at the time of Buffalo’s traded pick were Nelson Agholor, Breshad Perriman, and Phillip Dorsett, three players who have yet to make their mark on the league. Even so, moving up for Watkins cost the team a chance at players like Malcom Brown and Landon Collins — two players selected after the Bills potential draft slot.

Watkins’ 2017 is his final shot at redemption in upstate New York. The Bills decided they’d paid enough between the first four years of his rookie contract and the three draft picks it cost to acquire the talented young wideout.

But that doesn’t mean he can’t still earn the kind of payday he’s lamented on Twitter:

Watkins put together an explosive 2015 despite battling nagging injuries all season. If he can find a way to stay healthy, he could be the missing piece in the Buffalo offense. With free agency looming, that would be a major win for both the Bills and Watkins himself. One big season is all it would take to reward Buffalo’s draft faith in him while setting the stage for a massive contract.

The first question any team will ask when it comes to Watkins next spring is whether or not he can stay healthy, and 2017 may be his last chance to prove he can. If the young receiver can fulfill the massive potential he’s displayed in flashes over three seasons in the league, this season could be the best of his life.