NFL picks 2018, Week 6: Will the Chiefs beat the Patriots? Experts aren’t so sure

I can count several Falcons fans among my friends and colleagues, so it is with the upmost respect when I say this — I am done picking the Falcons to win. They’ve burned me now for three weeks in a row.

There’s always a few of those kind of teams, the ones you think can win, ones you think should win. I feel like the Packers are another example here. You pick them because it makes sense. They have a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers or an offense that can put up 30 points a game regularly, like the Falcons. And damned if they don’t go out and lose to the Steelers at home or the Lions ... THE LIONS.

We probably should know better. The Falcons’ defense has been destroyed by injuries, as opposed to just being unable to close out games. Naturally that happened right when the offense figured out how to score in the red zone, until last week anyway. The Packers have Mike McCarthy calling the plays. He’s essentially Jeff Fisher with an offensive background.

Neither one of those teams are going to lose every week, but they’re going to lose enough that they shouldn’t be automatic picks, no matter who the opponent is.

I didn’t pick either one of them this week. It’s not too much of a stretch to see Tampa Bay beating Atlanta, albeit in a defense-free shootout. The Packers really should beat the 49ers on Monday night, but, hey, I’m not getting burned by them again. I’m the outlier. Our panel is pretty much unanimous for both the Falcons and the Packers this week.

Which team the one that consistently burns you?

Who’s the best team in the AFC? Pretty safe to say it’s the Chiefs right now. They’re 5-0, they’re beating quality opponents, and they’re mostly healthy. However, I bet a lot of you fine folks, if you had to choose who would win represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, you’d pick the Patriots, through gritted teeth.

Nobody will fault you. In fact, that’s another one of those automatic picks, but not the kind that burns you for picking them. It’s just a safe bet until further notice. We’ll get a better idea about the question this week when the Patriots host the Chiefs on Sunday night.

I fully expect Kansas City to win this game. The Chiefs only burn you in January. They should be nicely schemed up against a Patriots team that still seems like it’s finding its sea legs. Most of our panel is picking the Chiefs too.

The Steelers beat the Falcons last week, so they must be good again, right? I don’t know. It’s impossible to know which dysfunctional version of the Steelers you’re going to get week to week. Most of our panel is taking the Bengals, and that’s the smart pick.

Speaking of auto picks, you can’t just mindlessly take Cleveland’s opponent this season. However, the Chargers are a little better than anyone realizes, their 25 or so fans included. Philip Rivers is putting up MVP numbers, and nobody even noticed. It’s a tough test against the Browns defense though.

Our guest panelist this week is Levi Damien from Silver and Black Pride, SB Nation’s home for all things Raiders. Our human panelists are allowed to change up to two picks by the end of the week, Friday, to account for injuries, etc. The coin is a 2007 commemorative quarter featuring the state of Oregon. OddsShark handles the computer picking, and you might be well advised to pay attention to what the machine has to say. It’s in second place in our little picks contest here.

I’m quite sure machines will replace everyone in sports media someday, and, you know what, I’m really pretty OK with that.