Why the Eagles will rebound and win the NFC East this season

2017 was a magical season for the Eagles. They won the Super Bowl with a back up quarterback who also was named the game’s MVP. Think about that for a second. We see backup quarterbacks littered around the NFL who can barely keep an offense functional. Nick Foles was out here leading his team to a 41-33 win. The Eagles lost their left tackle, middle linebacker, special teams ace and their scat running back to injury, and none of it bothered Foles. They kept ticking along.

To sum up their 2017 season — “Everything went right”

It’s a different story for the 2018 Eagles, who enter Week 10 at 4-4. The law of averages is catching up with them. It’s hard to pinpoint just one or two reasons why they aren’t as good this season, but I’ll try.

The Eagles on offense are ranked 21st by Football Outsiders DVOA. Last season they were eighth on the back of an outstanding run game. Last season they averaged 4.47 yards on the ground per rush, were eighth on third downs and first in the red zone. This season they average 4.1 per rushing attempt, are 13th on third down and 18th in the red zone. Small changes in the offense are adding up to bigger issues on the whole.

So where do these issues get fixed? I think we are seeing the Eagles slowly work it out.

Foles started the season at quarterback but wasn’t the same player we saw in the NFC championship game or the Super Bowl. No surprise there. All offseason, I said that Foles is a back up quarterback; that’s his ceiling. There’s a reason for that. And he played like a backup to start the year.

Despite the Eagles record, Carson Wentz has actually played better than last season. He’s completing 70 percent of passes and has a higher passer rating (101.9 to 109.6). His yards per attempt are up (8.7), but his yards per completions are down a bit (11.2). He seems to get stronger each week.

Another difference between this year and last is the pass protection. Last season the Eagles gave up 32 sacks in 16 games. This season it’s already 26. I covered the offensive line woes more in depth for this article I did for the Athletic earlier this week. In short, shit happens.

It’s a whole bunch of random issues that are leading to more sacks. It’s not one thing or another where I can say “fix this and it will be ok.” It’s random stuff like defenses calling the right call, running backs getting confused, lineman tripping, etc. The law of averages is real.

The run game has also taken a step back, no surprise. They’ve had too many injuries at that position. Injuries on the offensive line. Teams were loading the box early in the season, not scared of Foles. Now, Lane Johnson is banged up, and Jason Peters has a torn bicep. Their backup isn’t quite the same player. They’ve been rotating at left guard too. It’s just not going like planned.

Let’s turn our attention to defense. Last season, wow! It was awesome, right? Second in rushing defense, eighth in pass defense. Their defensive line was getting after the quarterback.

But remember this, it’s easier to rush the passer when you’re up 17 in the fourth quarter and opponents have to throw. It’s not quite the same this season. When these games are closer, it’s been easy to see some mismatches in the Eagles secondary that might have been masked by the pass rush last season.

Also what’s odd about the numbers for the Eagles rushing defense is their overall raw numbers don’t add up with the advanced stats.

The reason I like using DVOA is that it measures how successful each rep was. For example, if the goal was getting 4 yards on first down and you rush for 3, that’s not a successful play. If it was third-and-1 and you got 3, that’s a successful play. Not all 3 yard runs are the same. That’s the simplest way I can explain it.

The Eagles are second in rushing yards per game, but 23rd in rushing DVOA. So teams are moving the ball on the ground against them, but those teams are choosing to throw it anyway. I do wonder if that trend will change moving forward.

This was a fabulous time for a bye, right in the middle of the season. It gave them time to get healthy and do a full audit of the team. We’ve seen Doug Pederson and his staff to use this time wisely in the past, and I believe they’ll have a renewed game plan and focus moving forward.

Also, they play in a bad division this season. The Cowboys stink, and stink even more on the road. Washington has been up and down. The Giants, well, they are the Giants.

I think the Eagles win the NFC East and have a showdown with the Panthers in the Wild Card Round as the fourth seed. Everything will be alright in Philly.