NFL picks 2018, Week 10: Saints, Packers and Chiefs should cruise this week

The first thing that jumps out about the picks this week is just how much agreement there is among our panelists. There are a few reasons for that, and it impacts how we’re picking the game this week.

Maybe that’s a reflection of how one-sided the matchups are this week, something that tends to happen as we get into the second half of the season and teams start to reveal who they are. Along those lines, it suggests too how a handful of teams have come to dominate the standings. The Chiefs, Patriots, Rams, Saints, and even the Chargers are tough for anyone to beat to right now, except when these top-tier teams play each other, like last week’s Saints’ win over the Rams.

Speaking of that game, our panel, the humans on it anyway, was split, with a slight lean to the Rams. I was thinking about that game and those picks while I was looking at the chart this week.

We don’t really have one of those BIG TIME matchups this week. The most evenly matched game and the hardest one to pick was probably Thursday’s tilt between the Panthers and the Steelers. But that one turned out to be a blowout win for the Steelers. Too bad for the four panelists who picked the Panthers to win.

The other game that would qualify, sort of, for that tough-to-pick group is the Saints at Bengals. There are two picks for the Bengals, one human and one from the coin. Cincinnati hasn’t inspired much confidence with its recent play. After a 4-1 start to the season, they lost two mettle-testing games in a row, to the Steelers and Chiefs, before a bounce-back win over the Bucs in Week 8.

But they just had their bye, so that at least gave them some time to strategize for a Saints team that has no fewer than 4,236 ways to beat you. I do still wonder if New Orleans’ defense is good enough to get them deep into January, but this week, it’s Cincinnati’s defense that’ll be under the microscope.

It was hard to find anyone willing to pick against the Jaguars early in the season. Not anymore! They’re Bortles’ing themselves right out of contention. The panel is pretty convinced that the Colts will beat them this week.

Even in a version of the NFL where offense matters more than anything, way more, we’ve finally seen the limits of how far an all-world quarterback can carry his team. Aaron Rodgers is one pace to throw two interceptions this season. Two. But it doesn’t matter. The Packers are terrible. Even when the defense plays up to its opponent, like they did last week against the Patriots, it’s not enough to overcome the massive talent deficit they have at the offensive skill positions.

However, that shouldn’t be a problem for Green Bay this week against Miami. The panel predicts Rodgers and Co. to cruise to a win.

The primetime games this week, after Thursday, look awful. It should at least be fun to watch Eagles fans celebrating what should be a thorough trouncing of the rival Cowboys. The 49ers are an overwhelming favorite to beat the Giants on Monday night, but I can’t figure out any compelling reason to watch a game between two teams that should have been mercy-ruled out of the season by now.

The Chargers are at Oakland for an easy win to pad their resume. Beating the hapless Raiders won’t do much for them this week to catch the Chiefs though. Kansas City is hosting the Cardinals, one of the league’s other cellar dwellers.

The worst game this week has to be the Bills at Jets. Buffalo’s offense has achieved something special when it comes to futility. They can’t even average 11 points a game. They haven’t score more than 10 in three weeks. Not that the Jets are much better. The one hope Buffalo seems to have is Sam Darnold’s penchant for turning over the ball. Seriously, this game might be the most entertaining one this week, but like a comedy.

OK, let’s get to the picks. Our guest this week is Bernd Buchmasser, the site manager at Pats Pulpit, SB Nation’s Patriots team site.

The computer picks come to us via OddsShark. The coin is a quarter from 2007 that gets flipped every Tuesday morning, heads for the home team. Panelists are allowed to make changes for up to two of their picks by Friday to account for injuries, etc.