Geoff Schwartz’s best bets for Week 3 of the NFL season

It’s time for week 3 picks against the spread. These are my favorite games of the week for the NFL week.

Lets start with Thursday Night Football. I love the under tonight. We have two excellent defenses against two offenses that have struggled at times. Just looking at football outsiders DVOA we can see why taking the under makes sense. On defense, the Jets are 2nd and the Browns 6th in efficiency. On offense, the Jets are 27th and Browns 30th in efficiency. Thursday night’s game is going under.

If this game was played on a neutral field, it would be a pick ‘em. Feels like the Bengals aren’t getting the respect they should be. They are 2-0 and have played well as a team in both those wins. They are fourth in overall DVOA while the Panthers are 13th. I get the better team right now getting points. I’ll take it.

Another team getting no respect is the Miami Dolphins. They are 2-0 and get a Raiders team flying across the country for that 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff — which we know is tough for west coast teams. The Raiders have started fast in both their losses so far, and even more so last weekend in Denver. They were up 19-7 and lost 20-19. It’s going to be high 80s all game in Miami this weekend and they will wilt in the second half. Miami is also 1st in defensive DVOA and will shut down the Raiders.

Points are going to be raining in Kansas City this weekend. The Chiefs offense is soaring right now and I don’t think the 49ers can do much to stop them. By the same token, the Chiefs defense is brutal and can’t stop anyone, so the 49ers offense should be able to hum.

This is the squarest play of them all. The sharps are going to be on the Bills and the points here — no doubt. But come on, the Vikings are going to destroy the Bills. Josh Allen’s first start on the road in Minnesota against an angry team coming off that tie against the Packers. I’ll swallow all the points and take the Vikings.