NFL playoffs Panic Index 2019: History is against the Cowboys on Wild Card Weekend

Only one team in the NFL has more playoff wins in its franchise history than the Dallas Cowboys (the Steelers have 35), but only one of those 34 playoff wins has happened during Jason Garrett’s nine-year tenure with the team. They might have had another one that year, 2015, if not for the NFL’s old catch rule. That they didn’t is enough to make even the most devoted skeptic wonder if there’s not some cursed monkey paw tucked inside the bottom draw of Garrett’s desk.

Then there was January 2017, when some really iffy clock management and some of Garrett’s questionable playcalling that left Aaron Rodgers and the Packers just enough time to put together a game-winning drive.

Not convinced? Think about what happened the last time the Cowboys played the Seahawks in the playoffs (the most recent of two postseason meetings between the teams) in January 2007. Tony Romo’s botched snap cost the Cowboys a win and saddled him the choker label that dogged his entire career and really wasn’t fair. He wasn’t even supposed to be the holder!

(It’s a damn shame that CBS isn’t broadcasting this game.)

That’s a rough patch of recent history, one that should leave Dallas fans very worried. But this is a new year, right?

Panic index: Let the past die is always good advice. If anything, ya’ll should be more worried about what happened in that 2017 playoff game. Garrett’s got bad tendencies as playcaller and clock manager, and we’ve seen them flare up this year too.

Another thing to be concerned with: Seattle is really good in primetime games. The Seahawks are 11-2 in their last 13 games in primetime.

One year ago, we wondered if the Rams had enough experience to succeed in the playoffs. They had a first-year head coach, a 23-year-old quarterback, and a roster stacked with Pro Bowlers who had never won a playoff game (Andrew Whitworth, who had previously spent the entirety of his career with the Bengals) or had never been in one, period (Aaron Donald, Todd Gurley). In all, only six of their players had ever been to the postseason.

It turns out we were right to be worried. The Rams, who surprised us by going 11-5, looked in over their heads against a more experienced Falcons team, losing 26-13 in the Wild Card Round.

Fast forward a year and the Bears, who surprised us by going 12-4, have a first-year head coach, a 24-year-old quarterback, and a roster stacked with Pro Bowlers who have never won a playoff game (Khalil Mack) or have never been in one, period (Kyle Fuller, Kyle Long). It just so happens that their next opponent knows a little bit about playing in January — they’re the defending Super Bowl champions.

And arguably no team is playing with more confidence right now than the Nick Foles-led Eagles.

Panic index: The Bears aren’t completely devoid of playoff experience, especially compared to last year’s Rams team. Akiem Hicks went there with the Saints and Patriots. Prince Amukamara and Danny Trevathan have Super Bowl rings. Trey Burton was a Super Bowl hero last year with the Eagles; there would be no Philly Special without him.

Their offensive skill players, including Mitchell Trubisky, Tarik Cohen, and Allen Robinson, have never appeared in a playoff game, but luckily they have a defense that can make up for any deficiencies. Mack and Co. — and a stadium full of rowdy Bears fans who’ve been waiting eight years to watch a playoff game in person — will make Soldier Field a hostile environment to visit, even for the reigning champs.

Besides, the Eagles won a Super Bowl last year with Nick Foles and a second-year head coach, so it’s not like playoff history is a prerequisite for success.

Houston looked cooked after an 0-3 start, but a nine-game winning streak vaulted the Texans into the AFC South lead and an unlikely playoff spot. Pushing that streak out to 10 would have effectively sewn up a first-round bye — but it was stopped painfully short against the team Houston will face in the Wild Card Round, the Indianapolis Colts.

The Colts went down to Texas and upset the Texans to fuel their own unlikely postseason berth, pointing out some of Houston’s most glaring flaws in the process. First and foremost among them: Bill O’Brien’s passing defense.

The Texans have been shaky against the pass this season, and while a strong effort from the front seven and the return of starting safety Andre Hal have helped, Houston is vulnerable to big plays downfield. That’s especially true when it comes to Colts wideout T.Y. Hilton.

The last time these two teams played — the aforementioned upset win in Houston — Hilton exploded with nine catches for 199 yards. This was not much of an aberration. In 14 career games against the Texans, he’s hauled in 76 receptions for 1,445 yards and nine touchdowns. If Houston holds him to an average performance Saturday, he’ll still walk away with a 100+ yard afternoon.

Panic index: Hilton has played seven career games in Houston, a place he’s called his “second home.” He’s sprung for 175 receiving yards or more in three of them and 374 total in his last two. Even the ankle injury Hilton is dealing with shouldn’t stop him from putting up big numbers again. The Texans better hope Tyrann Mathieu and Justin Reid are ready to provide plenty of help over the top on Saturday.

Two weeks ago, the Los Angeles Chargers’ offense got wrecked by the Ravens in a 22-10 Week 16 loss. The Ravens held the Chargers to just 3.5 yards per play and 198 total yards.

On Sunday, the Chargers have to travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens in the Wild Card Round to get revenge. The game is taking place at 1:05 p.m. ET, which is 10:05 a.m PT — the time zone that the Chargers are used to.

Not only that, but the Chargers, despite a successful season (going 12-4), now face an immensely tough road test against one of the most rugged defenses in the NFL.

Panic index: The time zone factor shouldn’t be a huge deal — the Chargers are undefeated away from LA this season. Besides, if they can’t get the juices going for a playoff game it wasn’t meant to be. Going up against Baltimore’s defense for a second time might be the bigger issue. The Chargers were completely shut down and failed to get much going outside of a Melvin Gordon touchdown early in third quarter.

Ten points again likely won’t cut it against the Ravens. A much stronger offensive showing will be needed to advance to the Divisional Round.

The Seahawks’ first win of the 2018 season came against the Cowboys to dig the team out of an 0-2 start to the year. Seattle got the 24-13 win at home, despite getting outgained by the Cowboys, who got 127 rushing yards out of Ezekiel Elliott on only 16 carries.

The difference in the game was Earl Thomas.

Seattle’s six-time Pro Bowl safety had two interceptions — including one in the final minutes that was a dagger for the Cowboys’ chances at a comeback. After his second pick, Thomas turned to the Dallas sideline and bowed. It was a perfect celebration for a safety who was putting the pressure on the Seahawks to either pay him or trade him.

But Thomas broke his leg a week later and his season ended before October even began.

The Seahawks went on to win six of their last seven games of the season to secure a wild card berth, and the Cowboys won seven of their last eight to win the NFC East. Now the rematch is here — in Dallas this time — and the player who had the most significant role in Seattle’s first victory isn’t here to rescue them again.

Panic index: Thomas is a special player, but the Seahawks aren’t quite the same team they were in September. Neither are the Cowboys. Both teams found an identity in the latter half of the season and shook off early struggles and inconsistency to get into the playoffs.

Having Thomas would absolutely be a good thing for the Seahawks defense, but you’d be silly to dismiss Seattle’s chances at winning without him.