The Houston Texans will play host to the Indianapolis Colts in the first wild card playoff game on Saturday, but it will be the third time these teams will meet each other this season. As divisional rivals, the Colts and Texans split their regular season series and will enter Saturday’s matchup with a deep knowledge of each other.
Why we’re giving the Colts a slight edge over the Texans in their Wild Card Round matchup
It’s the third go-around for the Colts and Texans this season.
Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images
Both teams have experienced ups and downs this season, and both teams will be fired up after missing out on the playoffs last year. But with this being their third meeting, should we expect more of the same, or has much changed?
What happened the first and second time the Texans and Colts played
The first meeting, back in Week 4, went to overtime. The Texans narrowly edged the Colts, 37-34, for their first win of the season. That game saw T.Y. Hilton go off, as he generally does against the Texans, with four receptions for 115 yards, while Andrew Luck threw four touchdowns in a losing effort.
The Texans got 375 yards and a pair of touchdowns out of Deshaun Watson through the air, and another 41 yards and a score on the ground. In total, the Texans gained 119 yards rushing. Both teams wound up kicking field goals in overtime, but Houston was able to notch two. Ka’imi Fairbairn also missed a 59-yard game-winner as regulation expired.
What the game was most remembered for is Colts coach Frank Reich opting to go for it on fourth down in overtime, which gave the Texans good field position they needed for the game-winning field goal. It was a gamble that didn’t pay off for Reich, but it arguably sent a message that his team bought into; the Colts went 9-3 the rest of the season.
The second time around was another close game, this one won narrowly by the Colts, 24-21. Hilton went off again, this time with 199 receiving yards. Luck threw for 399 yards and two touchdowns, while Watson put up just 267 yards and a touchdown. Watson was also sacked five times, a recurring problem throughout the season.
Interestingly, both times, the team that won was the one that had an interception from its quarterback. Both games also involved the snapping of nine-game streaks — the first one ended a nine-game losing skid by the Texans dating back to Week 12 of 2017, and the second game ended a nine-game winning streak started by Houston with its win over Indianapolis.
What’s different now?
These teams are very familiar with each other, and there are not strictly any big changes, but there are a few things to note.
- In both games they played head-to-head this season, the road team won. The Texans are hosting the playoff game, and are 6-2 at home while the Colts are 4-4 on the road.
- This might be a cop-out answer but it’s still important: this is the playoffs. This will be Luck’s seventh postseason appearance, while Watson will be playing in his first NFL playoff game. Watson, however, knows how to keep his teams competitive:
- The Colts have won nine of their last 10 games and are arguably the hottest team in the playoffs.
- Not even ongoing ankle injuries will prevent Hilton from playing in Houston, a place he’s called his “second home.”
- Elsewhere on the injury front, both teams are fairly banged up, with Houston listing 18 players on their Week 17 injury report and Indianapolis listing 19. Keke Coutee, who had 11 catches for 109 yards in the first meeting, is among Houston’s injured. Colts starting center Ryan Kelly has missed time with a neck injury, but is expected to be full-go for the wild card matchup.
So what’s gonna happen Saturday?
For the most part, Colts fans have been more confident in the direction of their team than Texans fans. But in our latest FanPulse survey, there wasn’t a big gap about Saturday’s matchup. In a straight-up poll on who will win, the Colts edged the Texans with 55 percent of the vote.
However, the advanced stats favor Indianapolis to a surprising extent.
In SB Nation’s expert picks, the panel was spilt down the middle. Our six humans who make selections were evenly divided, with three picking Indianapolis and three picking Houston. Our two non-humans were spilt, as well. The OddsShark computer picked Houston while the coin sided with Indianapolis.
Overall, we trust the Texans a little more than we do the Colts, but we honestly wouldn’t be surprised by either team winning.
Score prediction: Colts 30, Texans 28
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