Colts climb from October Super Bowl long shot to first upset of 2019 NFL playoffs

The Indianapolis Colts have given us the first upset of the 2019 NFL playoffs. They went into NRG Stadium and beat the Houston Texans by a final score of 21-7. The Colts were a 1.5 point underdog and easily clear that spread, while the under

The public was betting heavily on the Colts in this matchup, but the big question is how many of those people have invested in the Colts as a Super Bowl contender. Indianapolis entered the wild card round even with the Philadelphia Eagles at 28/1 odds at Bovada. As the No. 6 seeded teams, both were guaranteed they would have to go on the road every round regardless of the outcome of other games.

And yet, if you wanted real value, the Colts were apparently the team to bet on after Week 6. The Colts lost 42-34 on the road against the New York Jets and dropped to 200/1 odds to win the Super Bowl. They had the same odds as the New York Giants, and the only teams with worse odds include the Buffalo Bills (250/1), Oakland Raiders (300/1), San Francisco 49ers (300/1), and Arizona Cardinals (400/1). I doubt many people outside of Indy were still betting on the Colts at that point.

Since that game, the Colts won nine of ten games to close the season. Here is how their Super Bowl odds changed after each game

Week 7: 37-5 win over Bills — 150/1
Week 8: 42-28 win over Raiders — 125/1
Week 9: BYE — 125/1
Week 10: 29-26 win over Jaguars — 80/1
Week 11: 38-10 win over Titans — 40/1
Week 12: 27-24 win over Dolphins — 33/1
Week 13: 6-0 loss to Jaguars — 40/1
Week 14: 24-21 win over Texans — 50/1
Week 15: 23-0 win over Cowboys — 33/1
Week 16: 28-27 win over Giants — 40/1
Week 17: 33-17 win over Titans — 28/1

We saw a strong move from October to November, but things settled in for much of December. They had an ugly win over the Giants, but you could argue that provided the last best opportunity on Colts Super Bowl odds. They dropped to 28/1 after clinching the last wild card berth, and their odds will drop further with their win over the Texans.

The Colts will head on the road to face the Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional round of the playoffs. The earliest line at BetOnline.ag had the Chiefs installed as 4.5 point-favorites. The Chiefs have played some impressive football this season, but that Chiefs defense could give them trouble. Although Indy could drop down to 20/1 or better odds to win it all, there could still be some modest value if you are looking to jump on somebody after the wild card round.