The rematch between the 49ers and Seahawks might decide the entire NFC playoff race

Monday night’s thriller between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers was an instant classic, and easily the best game of the 2019 NFL season so far. The Seahawks pulled out the 27-24 overtime win on the road and gave the NFL’s only unbeaten team its first loss.

This one had everything you could possibly want in a football game — defensive dominance, weird turnovers, high-stakes field goals, and late-game quarterback heroics.

The best part is that we haven’t seen the last of this matchup just yet. We’ll get at least one more on Dec. 29, when the two NFC West rivals are set to meet again in Seattle in Week 17. The 49ers and Seahawks are on a collision course to close out the season in a game that could put the final touches on the NFC playoff picture,

The Week 11 contest also had a major impact on the the playoff picture — and it did so in dramatic fashion.

Even Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson, who’s been part of two thrilling NFC Championships — a comeback vs. the 49ers and an OT win vs. the Packers — thought so:

In the first half, the 49ers led the whole way and each team turned the ball over once. In the second half, there were five more turnovers, three committed by Seattle, which made its victory even more improbable. The Seahawks took a 21-10 lead with 1:42 left in the third quarter, but the 49ers countered with a wild fumble touchdown and two-point conversion to make it a three-point game in the fourth.

As Wilson avoided a sack, the ball came out and went right to offensive lineman Germain Ifedi — who hilariously tried to run with it— until DeForest Buckner ripped it out of Ifedi’s hands:

Both teams hit field goals to make it 24 all at the end of regulation. The last one was a 47-yarder by the 49ers’ Chase McLaughlin, who was literally signed last week to fill in for an injured Robbie Gould. (More on him in a bit.)

The overtime period was something out of a movie, with seemingly endless back-and-forth drama. Seattle looked poised to score after Wilson somehow made this throw on third-and-16 to Malik Turner:

Instead, Wilson was picked off by rookie linebacker Dre Greenlaw deep in 49ers territory three plays later. Jimmy Garoppolo was able to drive his team down to the Seattle 29, and it was McLaughlin’s turn once more with the game on the line. Unfortunately, this 47-yard attempt was so wide left it almost hit people standing in the tunnel:

Both teams forced three-and-outs to give Seattle the ball back with 1:25 left, and Wilson made late-game magic on third down to scramble into 49ers territory:

Wilson got the Seahawks to the 49ers’ 24-yard line to set up Seattle kicker Jason Myers, who nailed the 42-yarder to get the victory.

As exciting as this game was, there’s likely even more on the line for the next matchup.

Here’s a look at the current NFC West standings:

Seattle has to get past four playoff hopefuls — the Eagles, Vikings, Rams, and Panthers — before facing San Francisco again. The 49ers also have a tough road ahead, with games left against the Packers, Ravens, Saints, and Rams. The Seahawks, followed by the 49ers, have the hardest remaining schedule in the NFC, based on SOS by opponents’ win totals.

As it stands now, the 49ers are still projected to be a No. 1 seed in the NFC, but the Seahawks are sitting just a half-game back with a projected fifth seed. Per FiveThirtyEight, the 49ers’ chances of getting a first-round bye dropped to 45 percent after the loss.

The 49ers can’t afford to lose any more ground to the Seahawks, who currently have the tiebreaker head-to-head advantage.

Here’s a look at the current NFC playoff projections:

NFC standings:

1. 49ers (8-1)

2. Packers (8-2)

3. Saints (7-2)

4. Cowboys (5-4)

5. Seahawks (8-2)

6. Vikings (7-3)

In the hunt:

Not only could the NFC West come down to that Week 17 game, it could drastically affect the NFC playoff seedings. The top seed gets both a first-round bye and homefield advantage for the playoffs, the No. 2 seed gets a first-round bye and homefield through the Divisional Round, and the Nos. 3 and 4 teams host the Nos. 5 and 6 teams in the Wild Card Round.

If the 49ers slip further down in the NFC race, the Seahawks could go from a wild card spot to atop the division and a potential first-round bye. It could also give another NFC team, like the Packers or Saints, the top seed.

Securing that No. 1 seed is pretty important — nine out of the last 10 No. 1 seeds in the AFC and NFC have advanced to the conference championship.

There will be more tiebreakers at play, especially with the 49ers and Seahawks facing other NFC heavyweights later this season. But if they come into Week 17 tied — or the Seahawks just a game back — that game could be the decisive game in the NFC standings.

If things stay as is, Seattle would play in the first weekend and the 49ers would get a bye. If the Seahawks make it through the Wild Card Round, there’s a chance they could meet the 49ers yet again in the playoffs. This has once happened before — in the NFC Championship Game during the 2013 season, when Seattle defeated the 49ers 23-17. They split the series during the regular season, however.

Just like that season, there’s reason to believe the next time these two teams meet won’t look exactly like the first.

For the 49ers, finding a way to run the ball more effectively against the Seahawks’ front will be key. On Monday night, the team was held to a season-low 87 yards, and averaged just 3.2 yards per carry. That put more pressure on Garoppolo, who had problems connecting with some of his receivers. But he was also missing his favorite target George Kittle (out with a knee and ankle injury) and Emmanuel Sanders, who left in the second quarter with a ribs injury.

There’s a good chance both will be healthy for the rematch. The 49ers should be with Gould on kicking duties by then too.

While the 49ers’ defense did a good job of forcing turnovers and pressuring Wilson, including sacking him a season-high five times, the MVP frontrunner was able to make plays when he needed to. It’s not an easy task to shut down Wilson completely, as the 49ers learned the hard way on Monday night. Coming in, the 49ers were allowing just a 27 percent conversion rate on third down — the Seahawks converted 46.7 on Monday.

San Francisco’s defense having to be on the field more than usual may have been a factor late too. Based on time of possession, the defense was out there for nearly 10 minutes longer than they have been in games this season, and it showed on those third downs:

For Seattle, it’s pretty hard to win a football game when you turn the ball over four times, so ball security will be a priority. Offensively, finding better ways to get new receiver Josh Gordon, who had two clutch catches on third down, involved throughout the game will be big. Since Gordon just joined the team a week before this matchup, his knowledge of the playbook is likely a lot more limited than it will be by the end of December.

Wilson’s No. 1 target Tyler Lockett also left the game with a lower leg injury, but he’s expected to be OK.

More production on the ground would help Seattle too. Not including Wilson’s 53 yards on the ground, running backs Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny averaged just 3.4 yards per carry, and they both had fumbles. Defensively, the Seahawks pressured Garoppolo and were able to shut down the run, so you can’t ask for much more than that.

Round 2 may not be as electrifying as the first matchup, but it could be more important with playoff implications on the line. And who knows, maybe we’ll get a Round 3 in January.