Don’t look now, but Derek Carr is playing the best football he ever has

The Oakland Raiders finished 2016 with a 12-4 record, but were unceremoniously bounced from the playoffs in the Wild Card Round. The season essentially ended in Week 16 when Derek Carr suffered a broken leg, forcing rookie Connor Cook to be the starter in the playoffs.

The Raiders couldn’t survive without Carr. His 2016 season ended with 28 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a 96.7 passer rating. He got a handful of MVP votes and received a then-record five-year, $125 million deal that quickly looked like it could be a costly mistake.

Carr regressed in 2017 with 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Part of the reason the Raiders hired Jon Gruden in January 2018 was his reputation as a quarterback guru who could potentially get Carr back on track. The early results weren’t great, though.

In his first five games with Gruden as his new head coach, Carr threw seven touchdowns and eight interceptions. Some of his decisions were so poor, it was hard to imagine Carr sticking as the quarterback of the future in Oakland — especially when he and Gruden were bickering on the sideline.

But Carr’s all the way back now. He’s not just playing at the same level that made him the highest-paid player in the league a couple years ago — he’s even better than that.

Other NFL stars like Russell Wilson, Christian McCaffrey, and Deshaun Watson are stealing the spotlight on a weekly basis, while Carr’s success in 2019 has flown under the radar. He’s improving as the season goes on — and although he’s not in the MVP conversation yet — Carr could start earn his way into that discussion if he keeps playing like he has over the last month or so.

The Raiders don’t have a treasure trove of athletes for Carr to connect with in the passing game. A trade for Antonio Brown self-destructed before he ever suited up for the team, leaving Tyrell Williams, J.J. Nelson, and Hunter Renfrow as the top three options at wide receiver. Nelson has since been released and the Raiders made trades to acquire Zay Jones and Trevor Davis to shore up the receiving corps. Still, it’s not exactly a terrifying group.

Fortunately for Oakland, its unheralded tight ends group is playing at a tremendous level and Gruden’s offense is creating mismatches for Carr to exploit.

That was especially evident in Week 9 when Carr led the Raiders to a 31-24 win against the Lions.

Late in the third quarter with the score tied 17-17, the Raiders worked their way to midfield with Carr completing his first three passes of the drive. With the Detroit defense on its heels, the Raiders lined up in shotgun with four receivers overloading one half of the field and tight end Darren Waller on the opposite side.

The Lions ran a Cover 2 scheme, but the Raiders countered with three players running deep. Renfrow ran down the right sideline, Waller down the left, and Marcell Ateman went straight up the seam in the middle of the field. With the safeties spread just enough to make sure Renfrow and Waller were covered, Carr zipped a pass over the head of Lions linebacker Jarrad Davis, who was trying to run with Ateman.

The ball arrived just before the Detroit safeties had a chance to converge on Ateman.

Ateman was a tremendously productive player at Oklahoma State, but landed in the seventh round of the 2018 NFL Draft mostly because of his poor testing and lack of top-end speed. But you don’t need to be Tyreek Hill to run by a linebacker who’s late to recognize a seam route.

Carr immediately saw the opportunity and feathered in a beautiful pass before the pass rush ever had a chance. And that’s what is most impressive about his career renaissance: He’s making reads and lasering in passes before defenses have a chance to breathe.

In 2018, he was sacked 51 times — behind only Deshaun Watson and Dak Prescott. While he’s actually taken a little bit more time to throw in 2019 than he did last season, 43 of the 51 sacks last year happened after he held the ball for more than 2.5 seconds. Through the first half of the 2019 season, Carr has been sacked just nine times. Only the Steelers have allowed fewer sacks.

That’s partly because the offensive line in Oakland has taken a step forward. Second-year offensive tackle Kolton Miller has given up just two sacks through eight games after giving up an NFL-most 16 in his rookie season. Veteran guard Richie Incognito, who was signed by the Raiders in May, still hasn’t allowed Carr to get hit once. Free agent acquisition Trent Brown has given up just one sack.

It’s also a byproduct of Carr’s play, though. He’s developing a rapport with his receivers and getting the ball out of his hand quickly. The play of Renfrow — who caught six passes for 54 yards and a touchdown in Week 9 — has been particularly helpful as of late.

All of that has contributed to Carr playing at a level that could get him MVP consideration.

The Raiders finished year one of the Gruden era with a 4-12 record, but matched that win total at the halfway point of year two. Getting to playoffs will still be an uphill climb — especially when Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes returns from a knee injury — but it’s possible.

Oakland has a much-improved run game with first-round rookie Josh Jacobs, who averages 4.9 yards per carry and has six touchdowns. The defense has also taken a step forward from the worst in the league to one that can at least stop the run now. But it’s Carr who’s leading the way for the team.

No quarterback with more than three starts in 2019 has a higher completion percentage than Carr. He ranks in the top 10 in both passer rating and yards per attempt, and it’s hard to imagine the Raiders would be in the postseason hunt without him.

In Week 9, Carr needed to lead the Raiders on a scoring drive after the Lions tied up the game with just over five minutes left in the fourth quarter. He connected with Jalen Richard for 31 yards on the first play, found Richard again for 23 yards three plays later, and then punctuated the drive with a 9-yard dart to Renfrow in the end zone.

Multiple Raiders players told reporters after the game that they never had a doubt.

“I’ve played with very few quarterbacks that can take command of a huddle like that and just drive down the field,” Incognito told The Mercury News. “I played on a lot of teams where it’s the fourth quarter and there are question marks whether you’ve got the quarterback to push the ball down the field. We know with D-Carr, and this offense, we’re going to pick up those chunks. We’ve got a lot of confidence in him.”

The Raiders’ heavy ground attack may ultimately keep Carr from racking up the gaudy stats usually necessary to be an MVP candidate. But any quarterback, like Carr, whose passer rating is well over 100 is never too far from those talks.

Carr’s performance so far in 2019 can’t be overlooked. With a relocation to Las Vegas coming next year and two first-round picks, the Raiders were well-positioned to move on from Carr’s contract in 2020 and start fresh. Now that idea doesn’t seem plausible.

Regardless of if the Raiders make the postseason, what’s most important is that Carr once again looks like a player worth $25 million per year. The Raiders’ resurgence is well on track, and it’s largely because the Gruden-Carr connection is thriving.