The Patriots really lost their first-round bye because they couldn’t handle the Dolphins

The New England Patriots came into Week 17 with a 12-3 record, the AFC East title, and a chance to secure a first-round bye through the opening round of the playoffs. All they had to do was topple a Dolphins team they’d previously beaten 43-0 on the road.

But Miami stuck around. And stuck around. And finally, after a 75-yard comeback drive from Ryan by-god Fitzpatrick, the Dolphins forced Tom Brady into his first Wild Card Round game since 2009.

Fitzpatrick and his cast of misfit toys cracked the Patriots’ top-ranked defense time and time again in a 27-24 win in Foxborough Sunday afternoon. The loss dropped New England to 12-4 and gave the Chiefs the opportunity to leapfrog the Pats and vault into the AFC’s second seed. Kansas City’s 31-21 win over the Chargers means Patrick Mahomes will have a week off and the honor of hosting a Divisional Round playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium in two weeks — a game that may feature the Patriots.

Fitzpatrick outplayed Brady on a day when he had no help from the league’s least powerful running game (63 yards on 22 carries). The journeyman quarterback threw 41 passes en route to a 320-yard, one-touchdown, zero-turnover performance.

None of those yards were as important as the final 75 he racked up to lead Miami to a come-from-behind victory. A James White touchdown gave New England a 24-20 advantage with 3:56 to play, leaving Fitzpatrick one last chance to push his team to victory in the hostile confines of Gillette Stadium. He responded by completing eight of 10 passes in a 13-play drive, capped off by this touchdown strike to tight end Mike Gesicki.

That left the Pats just 24 seconds to respond with a last-gasp scoring drive of their own. They couldn’t, and the Dolphins finished 2019 with a 5-4 record in their final nine games and the newfound ability to raise a “shocked the Patriots late in the season, again” banner at Hard Rock Stadium.

Fitzpatrick was only the primary factor in Miami’s win as a 17-point underdog. The Dolphins’ defense stifled New England all afternoon. Former Patriot Eric Rowe stepped in front of a terrible Brady pass to deliver the first pick-six against the future Hall of Famer since 2017, giving his team an early 10-0 lead.

That defense also held New England to three third-down conversions (on nine attempts) and held Brady to 221 passing yards. That was a statement performance from Dolphins head coach Brian Flores, who’d spent his entire coaching career pre-2019 as a defensive assistant under Bill Belichick in New England. Miami came into the season with designs on a rebuild, but that plan may be farther ahead of schedule than anyone would have imagined after late season wins over the Colts, Eagles, and Patriots.

Yes, but only a little! The Dolphins and Bengals were locked in a battle for next year’s No. 1 overall pick through the first 10 weeks of 2019. Miami’s sudden competence has meant a drop from the top of the draft to the fifth pick.

That’s going to make the team’s quest to find their franchise quarterback slightly tougher. While Fitzpatrick has proven to be a solid option as a veteran mentor (and the kind of spot starter who can deliver an upset win), the 37-year-old is not the foundation from which the team can build.

Falling from the top pick already meant reigning Heisman winner Joe Burrow was likely out of the picture for the Dolphins. Sunday’s win could make it difficult to secure the services of Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa — who could still be a top-four pick despite the hip injury that ended his 2019 season — without a trade up the draft board. Beating the Patriots may wind up being the difference between the fourth and fifth overall pick, but Miami — loaded with three first round picks next spring — has the assets needed to move up if necessary.

For the second straight year, a surprising loss to the Dolphins has affected the Patriots’ playoff seed. Last year, the Miami Miracle ultimately prevented New England from claiming homefield advantage in the AFC. This year it means the Patriots will be the No. 3 seed instead of No. 2 — and thus lose the free pass through the Wild Card Round that comes with it.

New England will instead face the AFC’s No. 6 seed to start its playoffs. Depending on Sunday’s results, that will either be the Titans, Steelers, or Raiders.

More importantly, it means New England’s championship-caliber defense is mortal. The Patriots were faced with several high-stress situations where a big stop could stem the Dolphins momentum or, as was the case late in the fourth quarter, deliver a vital win. Instead, that group got gashed by Fitzpatrick, Gesicki, and DeVante Parker. As good as those three can be, they’re no match for the skill players the Pats are slated to face in the postseason.

That only compounds worries about New England’s playoff seaworthiness. The team’s other three losses have all come against the AFC’s other division champions — the Ravens, Texans, and Chiefs. Now the Patriots are looking down the barrel of a three-game run through the conference in order to get to the Super Bowl, and it’s one that would include a must-win game in Kansas City and a likely AFC title game trip to Baltimore.

Normally that’s the kind of lapse Tom Brady could overcome, but the six-time Super Bowl winner hasn’t been himself in 2019. The 42-year-old has struggled, even against a soft schedule this season. His 24 touchdown passes are his fewest in a full season since 2006, and while he’s led come-from-behind fourth-quarter drives in each of his last two games, it’s fair to question how effective he’ll be with an inconsistent receiving corps, leaky offensive line, and a depleted tight end rotation that won’t be able to rely on Rob Gronkowski in tight situations.

The Patriots could have used their bye to stabilize their passing offense and work out the defensive kinks that allowed Fitzpatrick to torch them in Week 17. Instead, they’ll have to figure out those flaws on the fly when they host a playoff game next weekend. That’s another ominous sign in a season full of them that 2019 may be the beginning of the end for New England’s dynasty.

Or, as it has been so many times before, it could all be a harbinger of nothing before another Bill Belichick Super Bowl.