The 7 remaining games that will decide the 2019 NFL playoff race

With four weeks remaining in the NFL season, we only know one thing about the playoffs: the Saints are going to be there.

New Orleans was the first team to clinch a postseason spot, reigning supreme over the rest of the NFC South en route to its third straight division title. Throughout the rest of December, Sean Payton’s team will be joined by 11 other Super Bowl hopefuls as the second season determines who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy this February.

There are plenty of near-certainties we can pencil in to the proceedings — the Patriots, Ravens, 49ers, and Seahawks are all looking pretty good, for example. Where they’ll end up and who will join them is still a mystery. The Bills are battling for what could be their first AFC East title since the Colts were still part of the division. The Packers and Vikings will have an old-school battle to declare the king in the (NFC) North. Either San Francisco or Seattle will wind up being the wild card team no opponent wants to face.

Every team in the league has just four games remaining to leave their mark on the 2019 regular season. Some will only impact the 2020 draft order — looking at you, Dolphins-Bengals. Others will map out January’s road to Super Bowl 54.

These are the seven most important games left on the NFL schedule, in no particular order.

Week 14: Chiefs at Patriots

Week 16: Bills at Patriots

New England’s 2-2 record over its past four games is hardly anyone’s idea of a skid, but it’s been enough to drop the Patriots out of the AFC’s top seed. While remaining games against the Bengals and Dolphins suggest Bill Belichick is headed to his ninth 12+ win season in the past decade, two home games will likely determine whether the AFC Championship runs through Foxboro.

Kansas City comes first in a rematch of last year’s classic conference title game. The Chiefs lost that one at home when Patrick Mahomes didn’t even get the chance to touch the ball in overtime. Now they’ll try to bolster their case for an AFC West title in a stadium where no opponent has won in their last 21 tries (yep, homefield is pretty important for the Pats).

Andy Reid’s team will have to put a lackluster regular season in its rearview as the playoffs approach. A 6-4 start meant Kansas City needed just 10 game to match 2018’s loss total, though part of that slump was attributable to the knee and ankle injuries that kept Mahomes either limited or off the field entirely. Beating the Patriots in New England would give the Chiefs no worse than a two-game lead in the West with three games to play. It would also send a size-60 font headline to the rest of the AFC that Kansas City is all-caps BACK.

The Bills are also back, and you may have to go back to the 1990s to find a better version of this team. Buffalo’s defense has been smothering, and the steady (if uneven) improvement of Josh Allen and addition of playmakers across the depth chart have the offense trending upward. The Bills are a game behind the Pats in the standings and still have to face the MVP frontrunner Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in Week 14, but there’s a not-insignificant chance a win in Week 16 could propel them to their first division title since 1995.

Ten players on their current roster, including Allen, defensive lineman Ed Oliver, and leading rusher Devin Singletary were not yet born when that happened.

Week 17: 49ers at Seahawks

The first meeting between these teams was a sloppy, beautiful overtime classic. The second could decide who earns homefield advantage in the NFC and who becomes one of the best wild card teams in NFL history.

Each team stands at 10-2 with four games left to play, a record matched only by New Orleans in the NFC. That means one of them could be just the second franchise to ever win 13 games and still have to play a road game in the first weekend of the playoffs (the 1999 Titans were the first). The Niners have only lost to 10-win teams. The Seahawks are in the same boat.

San Francisco hosted the first matchup, but it also had a litany of injuries that took players like George Kittle and kicker Robbie Gould out of the lineup. The Niners should have that duo back for the rematch — even if players like Dee Ford and Matt Breida have hit the injury report in the intervening weeks. They’ll also have to deal with a loud CenturyLink Field and Seattle’s 12th Man.

Whomever wins that Week 17 showdown — which in a just and obvious world will be flexed to Sunday night — will likely stand as NFC favorites.

Week 16: Packers at Vikings

Minnesota’s Week 13 loss to the Seahawks gave Green Bay a little breathing room at the top of the NFC North. There’s still time for the Vikings to claim a division crown and the home playoff game — and possible first-round bye — that comes with it. The Packers may have locked down their first winning season since 2016, but their resume isn’t entirely inspiring. Green Bay’s best win came over either the Mahomes-less Chiefs, the Cowboys (which have yet to beat an opponent with a winning record), or a Minnesota team unable to get over the hump in big games.

About that: the Vikings still have plenty to prove despite an 8-4 start. Kirk Cousins fell to 0-8 for his career on Monday nights when he failed to rally back from a 34-17 deficit in Seattle. His 2019 team is 0-3 against teams that currently have a winning record.

Cousins may only have one more chance to break that streak — in the season’s penultimate week against his division rival. Green Bay won the first matchup between these teams by blasting out to a 21-0 first-quarter lead and then hanging on for a 21-16 win. The Vikings have shown some improvement since then. Cousins, in particular, has stepped up his game and is having the best statistical year of his career.

The Vikings can likely earn a spot in the playoffs while roasting a rival if they can win the rematch in Minneapolis. The bad news? It’s on Monday Night Football.

Week 16: Cowboys at Eagles

The NFC East is a mess. Dallas is a below .500 team incapable of beating contenders. The Eagles are 5-7 and just lost to the Dolphins.

But someone’s gotta win, even if the reward is the NFL equivalent of a dog catching its own tail. Whichever team escapes the East at 9-7 or 8-8 (or worse) will earn the NFC’s No. 4 spot and have the honor of hosting either the Niners or Seahawks to kick off their postseason run.

Both of these teams are more talented than their records imply. Dak Prescott has put the Dallas offense on his back en route to his most productive season as a pro. The defense held the Patriots and Saints to 25 points combined. Yet the Cowboys are 0-6 against teams with current winning records and sit at 6-7 after a 3-0 start.

The Eagles have shown off the fortitude to beat teams like the Packers and Bills, but there’s no semblance of consistency to Doug Pederson’s team. Philadelphia was gifted a prime opportunity to take the reins in the division in recent weeks and responded with a three-game losing streak. Now they’ll have to handle their rival at home in order to keep their postseason hopes alive — the same division rival that beat the Eagles by 27 points in Dallas back in October.

Weeks 15 and 17: the Texans-Titans double-dip

Division titles are important. You’ve got to win one to host a playoff game in the first two rounds or earn a bye through Wild Card Weekend. That’s why this list is loaded with rematches. That includes a 14-day span when the Texans and Titans will meet twice in what will likely be the two biggest games of their seasons.

Houston made its postseason intent clear by shutting down Tom Brady for three quarters and gashing New England’s once-impenetrable passing defense in a Week 13 win. Though questions remain about their playoff seaworthiness — the Texans got absolutely ruined in a 41-7 loss to the Ravens in November — they’ve got a mostly clear path to double-digit wins.

The dual roadblocks on that highway are, surprisingly, Ryan Tannehill-shaped. Tennessee has surged since swapping out Marcus Mariota for the former Dolphin, a turn of events we all saw coming. Since benching their starting quarterback, the Titans have gone on a 5-1 run that includes wins over the Colts and Chiefs. They’re also gaining steam as the end of the season nears; their latest two victories, over Indianapolis and Jacksonville, each came by at least 14 points.

These two often-dodgy teams are peaking at the right time. A Tannehill-Deshaun Watson matchup that sounded like a game you’d only accidentally click on with GamePass has now become appointment viewing. A sweep for the Titans likely clinches their first division crown since 2008. A sweep for the Texans could result in a first-round bye and potentially wipe Tennessee off the playoff bracket entirely.

That sounds awesome. And we get to do it twice.