Update, 12/15: As expected, the Patriots handled the Bengals in Week 15 and officially clinched a spot in the playoffs. Before that happened, here’s what it would’ve taken to keep them out of the postseason.
How the Patriots could’ve missed the 2019 NFL playoffs (but they didn’t)
The scenario to keep the Patriots out of the postseason involved the Bengals and Dolphins winning games.
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The 2019 season has taken a decidedly uncomfortable turn for the New England Patriots.
After starting the year 8-0, New England has lost two in a row and three of its last five. More importantly, those three losses all came against AFC playoff contenders (the Ravens, Texans, and Chiefs).
In Week 14, the Patriots were handled for most of the game by the Chiefs. Despite plenty of defensive struggles in 2019, Kansas City managed to hold New England to 278 yards of offense in a 23-16 win. For the eighth game in a row, Tom Brady finished with a passer rating below 100 — the longest streak of his career.
The Patriots had a chance to clinch a spot in the postseason with a win, but with three weeks left, they’re still not quite in. While there are reasons for a bit of panic in New England, making the playoffs really isn’t something to fret about. It’d take a monumental collapse, along with a ton of help, to keep the Patriots out.
In fact, nine results would have to go against New England to make the defending Super Bowl champions miss the playoffs:
The nine-step formula to keep the Patriots out of the postseason
The Patriots would have to lose out and get passed by the Bills for the AFC East title. Then they’d have to fall behind at least two teams in the AFC Wild Card race.
That looks a little something like this:
Week 15
Week 16
- Bills beat the Patriots
- Titans beat the Saints
- Texans beat the Buccaneers
Week 17
With those results, Buffalo would have at least 11 wins and the Patriots would finish 10-6. That would guarantee the Bills win the AFC East for the first time since 1995.
The other games make sure the Steelers, Titans, and Texans are all at least 10-6. It doesn’t really matter if the Titans or Texans win in Week 15, but they have to split the season series. Houston would win the AFC South in that scenario and the Patriots would be in a three-way tie of 10-6 teams for two wild card berths.
Both the Titans and Steelers would have better records in conference play than the Patriots who would be 6-6 in AFC play. And there you have it, New England is on the outside looking in.
Of course, the real issue with the hypothetical is that it relies on the Patriots losing to both the Bengals and the Dolphins. Cincinnati has the worst record in the NFL and Miami is engineered to fail. The Patriots beat the Dolphins, 43-0, back in Week 2.
New England is struggling, but not so much that it’d lose to those two teams.
Still, the much more likely scenario is the Patriots losing their grasp of a first-round bye. A loss to the Bills or one of those two awful teams would open the door to the Chiefs to take away one of the top two seeds. New England’s probably not going to miss the playoffs in 2019, but getting eliminated on Wild Card Weekend isn’t out of the question.
