The 4 most important changes in Mel Kiper’s second 2019 NFL mock draft

Defensive linemen Nick Bosa, Josh Allen, and Quinnen Williams were the top three picks in Mel Kiper Jr.’s first mock draft of the year. That hasn’t changed a month later.

ESPN’s NFL Draft expert released his second mock of the year Monday and still believes that the Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, and New York Jets will use their top three selections to add defensive line help. But this time around, he thinks the Oakland Raiders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will do the same with the No. 4 and No. 5 picks too.

Kiper followed Todd McShay’s lead and projected linemen will be each of the top five picks, although McShay had an offensive lineman at No. 5.

It would be unprecedented if Kiper’s projection became a reality. There has never been four defensive linemen in the top five of an NFL Draft before. The last time there was even three was in 1985 when Bruce Smith, Ray Childress, and Chris Doleman were three of the top four picks. It’s a great year to add defensive linemen, and it could be a historically great draft for the position group.

Here are the four most important takeaways from Kiper’s mid-February mock draft:

In January, Kiper projected Oakland would add cornerback Greedy Williams and Tampa Bay would pick Alabama offensive tackle Jonah Williams. Those picks have changed to Michigan’s Rashan Gary and Mississippi State’s Montez Sweat, respectively.

While the Raiders secondary could use help and Jameis Winston needs better protection, both teams could stand to improve up front on defense. Dan Kadar lists edge rusher help as one of the biggest needs for the Raiders and Buccaneers in his latest mock draft.

Oakland finished the season with a laughable 13 sacks — a total that’s only impressive if one player does it on his own. That’s the fewest sacks a team has finished with in a decade. It’s a problem that needs to be fixed and Gary would be a good start.

The need for pass-rushing help isn’t quite as dire in Tampa Bay, but it’s still an area that needs improvement. Via Kiper:

Tampa Bay’s defense is likely to undergo an overhaul under new coach Bruce Arians and coordinator Todd Bowles, and the Bucs have to add edge rushers. Jason Pierre-Paul had a nice first season in Tampa (12.5 sacks), but he’s 30. Former second-round pick Noah Spence, meanwhile, has just one sack over the last two seasons.

After the early run, the next defensive lineman off the board in Kiper’s mock draft is Ed Oliver at No. 14 overall to the Atlanta Falcons.

Kiper didn’t make many changes with his quarterback projections. In fact, it was almost a carbon copy of his January mock as it pertains to passers.

Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins is still slated to be the first quarterback off the board to the New York Giants, Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray is paired with the Miami Dolphins once again, and Duke’s Daniel Jones is still pegged as the New England Patriots’ eventual Tom Brady successor. The only difference is that Missouri’s Drew Lock was added to the mix.

Kiper now has Washington taking the strong-armed quarterback at No. 15 overall.

The team is probably going to need to do something at the position with Alex Smith likely to miss the entire 2019 season due to a gruesome leg injury. Washington was reportedly interested in trading for Joe Flacco before a deal was made with the Broncos that caused a ripple effect across the league.

Kiper says Lock — who he cites as the player who “was the best quarterback at the Senior Bowl” — could be the solution for Washington instead.

Eric Ebron is the only tight end to be drafted top 10 in the last 12 years. He was the Lions’ No. 10 selection in 2014, and it was a swing and a miss for Detroit.

Ebron only caught 11 touchdowns in four seasons with the Lions and was released last March so the team could avoid paying his fifth-year option. The tight end then had a breakout, Pro Bowl year after signing with the Indianapolis Colts.

In Kiper’s latest mock, he projects the Lions will go with the same bold draft strategy that burned them five years ago and take Iowa tight end T.J. Hockenson.

Hockenson (6-5, 250) is a complete player who can run routes out of the slot on one play, then line up next to a tackle and blow up an edge defender in the running game on the next. I’m not going to call him a Rob Gronkowski clone, but there are similarities, particularly when you see each as blockers. And remember that Lions coach Matt Patricia and GM Bob Quinn saw firsthand what Gronk did for the Patriots during their time in the organization.

Patricia was hired by the Lions last year, and Quinn became the general manager in 2016. So neither was with the organization picked Ebron. But it’d be understandable if Detroit fans were wary of the team taking another tight end that early.

In Kiper’s first mock draft, the Lions took LSU linebacker Devin White and Hockenson was slated at No. 19 to the Titans.

A month ago, Kiper had Ole Miss wide receiver A.J. Brown as the first receiver off the board all the way at No. 22 overall. This time he showed the position much more love, although it wasn’t Brown sliding up the board.

Instead, it’s his freakishly gigantic teammate D.K. Metcalf who is now projected to go No. 9 to the Buffalo Bills. Another receiver, Oklahoma’s Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, is three picks later in the mock draft to the Green Bay Packers.

Just a few hours after Kiper’s mock draft was released, it was revealed the latter recently underwent surgery that will keep him out of action throughout the pre-draft process:

Then it’s no receivers until A.J. Brown at No. 26 overall to the Indianapolis Colts.

Taking a receiver early would make sense for the Bills, who gave rookie quarterback Josh Allen little help in 2018. It’d be a more curious decision for the Packers, who have big needs on defense, although it wouldn’t hurt to add a No. 2 receiver to pair with Davante Adams.

Kiper and Dan Kadar both believe you should expect to hear a whole lot of defensive linemen get their name called at the beginning of the 2019 NFL Draft. They also think New York, Miami, and Washington will be in the market for new passers in April.

It’s still really early though, and there will undoubtedly be plenty of shuffling in the next couple months. At this point last year, Kiper still believed Josh Allen would be the Cleveland Browns’ No. 1 pick and that Baker Mayfield would be the Jets’ selection at No. 6 overall.