It’s game day! Super Bowl 53 kicks off later today at 6:30 p.m. PT on CBS, and all the narratives finally come to an end. The New England Patriots can match the Pittsburgh Steelers for most Lombardi Trophies, while the Los Angeles Rams can maybe force a changing of the guard.
Super Bowl 53 pick: Aaron Donald and the Rams pass rush will be the difference
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For the first 11 days leading up to the Super Bowl, the betting public hammered the Patriots. The line opened at Rams -1 but quickly flipped to Patriots -2.5. It has remained there in spite of an overwhelming amount of Patriots money. And yet, as we got into the weekend, the Rams money started showing up. Six- and seven-figure bets started coming in on the Rams, and while it has not been enough to move the line, it’s something to track.
And so, it’s time for some kind of prediction. Normally, when the public is heavily betting one side, sharp bettors will look to the other side. That appears to be a played out notion for Super Bowl 53, with sharp bettors backing the Patriots nearly as heavily. Some hopped on the Rams at +3, but most sportsbooks will be rooting heavily for the Patriots.
I’ve gone back and forth on this, and I am going to go with the minority on this. The Rams could come in jittery and get rolled in short order. The most likely scenario is probably a close game, but I am going to say the Rams win this game outright and the point total will go over the 56 installed at BetOnline.
The Patriots beat the No. 1 and No. 3 teams in Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings to get to the Super Bowl. On Sunday they face the No. 2 team. They’re rolling, and yet, I think Sean McVay and Wade Phillips are going to have some tricks up their sleeves. And frankly, after seeing the Rams respond so well in the face of serious first half adversity against the Saints, I don’t think this game will be too big for them.
On defense, the Rams are among the league’s best against running backs and tight ends in the pass game. Julian Edelman will see plenty of work, but if the Rams can contain James White and Rob Gronkowski, they’ll be in a good position. The key though will be getting pressure on Tom Brady. When he is pressured, he is a fairly mediocre quarterback. The problem is teams have not gotten pressure on him in the playoffs. Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh, and Dante Fowler could be the three most important players in this game. If they can figure out a way to cause havoc in the Patriots backfield, the Rams can win this game.
The point total sits at 56 after looking like it might be a record high early in the bye week. Instead, it dropped from 57.5 to 56.5 and has settled at 56. At this point, the over is the value play. If you want to buy the under up to 57.5, be my guest, but at 56, look at the over. I think Todd Gurley bounces back in a big way to open things up for this offense and the games turns into a shootout, but the Rams will get enough consistent pressure to hold off Tom Brady and the Patriots.
If you’re looking for a final score, I’ll go Rams 30, Patriots 27.
