5 NFL teams that could use a 1st-round pick on Duke QB Daniel Jones

As March came and went, it appeared the 2019 NFL Draft would only have three first-round quarterbacks: Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, and Drew Lock. A mediocre combine showing pushed Duke junior Daniel Jones out of Day 1 in many mock drafts.

But while experts across the media landscape saw a slide, NFL evaluators apparently weren’t swayed.

A recent rash of visits with QB-needy teams in the mid-range of the first round may mean Jones’ stock is higher than previously thought — he could even be the second or third passer off the board, if the latest rumors in the NFL’s lying season are to be believed:

Jones’ ascension would be a testament to the demand for effective young quarterbacks on bargain rookie contracts. The former Blue Devils signal-caller looks every bit of a franchise building block, but his college numbers suggest a steep learning curve in the pros.

He had a breakout season in 2018 while leading Duke to seven regular-season victories and a blowout win over Temple in the Independence Bowl, where he threw for 423 yards and five touchdowns (and running for a sixth). But buried in his big numbers (22 touchdowns in 11 games) are causes for concern. Jones averaged just 6.8 yards per pass in a down year for ACC defenses — excluding Clemson’s national champion unit, ACC clubs allowed a shade under 29 points per game last fall. He also particularly struggled against the conference’s best defensive teams; in games against Clemson and Miami, he completed just 52.5 percent of his passes, averaged a putrid 3.7 yards per attempt, and failed to find the end zone.

The weather in that Miami game played a role in his inefficiency, but even with that caveat it can’t redeem an impressively awful performance from a potential first-round quarterback.

Despite those warts, he’s still got his share of suitors who could ensure he doesn’t last into the latter half of the first round. So which teams are in the running to pick up a second-tier prospect who could transform a franchise’s fortunes — or waste a valuable first-round pick?

New York Giants
Picks: No. 6, No. 17

The 17th overall selection appears to be Jones’ terminus if the latest rumblings are correct. Adding a young quarterback, any young quarterback, is paramount to Pat Shurmur’s second year at the helm in New York. While Eli Manning was acceptable last season — his efficiency numbers were significantly higher than his career averages, though still not great — he’s also 38 years old and winding down a Giants tenure that’s been equal parts incredible and incredibly frustrating.

Jones could be the answer if he lasts into the latter half of the draft. But that would presume the team isn’t interested in Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins, who is the most commonly mocked pick for New York at No. 6.

There are plenty of game-changing defenders who would be available with the club’s first selection, including the kind of pass-rushing presence who could offset the departure of Olivier Vernon. General manager Dave Gettleman could target one of those players to rebuild the league’s 24th-ranked defense while hoping Jones (or Missouri’s Drew Lock) slides to him at No. 17. The Giants could also trade up a few spots from No. 17, though the QB-hungry teams ahead of him (Broncos, Dolphins, Washington) may be uninterested in his offer.

Plus, the Giants have a connection with drafting Duke quarterbacks and the number 17 — even though it’s not a good connection.

Denver Broncos
Pick: No. 10

John Elway loves quarterbacks who look like franchise quarterbacks, even if they fail to pan out on the biggest stage. Since taking over as Denver’s general manager, he’s used early draft picks to select Brock Osweiler (6’7) and Paxton Lynch (6’7), and replaced a 6’1 quarterback (Case Keenum) with 6’6 Joe Flacco.

The 6’5 Jones could be his next large project. Flacco is 34 years old and appears to have left his best years in his rear view (though some of his late-stage struggles can be attributed to Baltimore’s consistent lack of viable receiving talent). Even if he improves this year, he’s a bandaid for a franchise that hasn’t developed a Pro Bowl quarterback since Jay Cutler.

Jones makes sense for a team that needs a foundational piece behind center. However, with the No. 10 pick Lock or even a sliding Haskins could be a more viable option for the Broncos.

Miami Dolphins
Pick: No. 13

The Dolphins are heading into a full-fledged rebuilding year in 2019, giving Jones the landing spot with the least pressure to win as a rookie. Sometimes that works in a young player’s favor. Other times you get one of the worst seasons of quarterbacking in the NFL’s scoring era, as the Cardinals did with Josh Rosen in 2018.

Miami’s current QB depth chart includes Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jake Rudock, and Luke Falk, three names that anagram to “4-12.” Unless Falk can make major strides in his development, there’s no long-term solution there. Fitzpatrick is still solid enough to give Jones some runway if he’s not yet ready to be a starter, but unsteady enough to allow the rookie to take his place behind center as soon as he’s capable.

Washington
Pick: No. 15

Alex Smith may never play football again, Case Keenum’s 2017 may be an outlier in a career filled with replacement-level quarterback play, and the only reason we’ve talked about Colt McCoy in this, the year of our lord 2019, is because he drinks a gallon of unpasteurized milk every day in some kind of weird sacrifice to the dairy gods.

Suffice to say, Washington needs a young quarterback. But picking 15th in this year’s draft limits the team’s options.

The good news is Jones could be available by the time its selection is due and Keenum, despite his flaws, has been a solid placeholder/mentoring quarterback in the past. He helped onboard Jared Goff his rookie season, and the pair weathered the storm of Jeff Fisher’s final season of 7-9 bullshit before both moving on to better things. Keenum could do the same for Jones — though they’d each be better served if the club could add some receiving help around them.

New England Patriots
Pick: No. 32

Bill Belichick has been loath to trade up in the first round of drafts unless he feels he’s found a can’t-miss talent. But he also hasn’t been shy taking quarterbacks to give his team a contingency plan behind the ageless Tom Brady, especially in recent seasons. New England has selected three quarterbacks in the past five drafts, including two who would become starters, albeit for other teams (Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett).

If the Patriots are enamored with Jones, they have the draft capital to make a move into the top half of the first round. New England has six of the first 101 picks in this year’s draft and 12 total — more than it can hope to fit on its roster. Playing behind Brady would give Jones at least one year to play understudy and smooth out his rough edges as Garoppolo did from 2014-15.

Jones is an imperfect prospect, but the allure of an inexpensive rookie contract could push him higher in the 2019 NFL Draft than most mocks expect. The quarterback was the focal point of a Duke offense that averaged nearly 30 points per game and continued the Blue Devils’ recent resurgence. If he can continue the growth he showed between 2017 and 2018 as a pro, he’ll become a valued starter in the league.

That’s a big “if,” but the reward may be enough for one team to give up prime position in a draft loaded with defensive talent and take that risk.