Week 2 of a 17-week NFL regular season is super important to the future success of your team. You wouldn’t think so, with 14 games left to decide their fate, but the historical numbers show otherwise. Since 1990, teams that start the season 2-0 make the playoffs 61.3 percent of the time, according to Pro Football Reference. Those teams win the Super Bowl almost 8 percent, by far the highest Super Bowl-winning percentage for a record after two games.
The 2-0 and 0-2 teams that have the best and worst chances of making the NFL playoffs
Nine teams are still perfect, while nine teams have only lost. Geoff Schwartz looks at where they stand after a surprisingly pivotal Week 2.
Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images
On the flip side, teams that start the season 0-2 are mostly likely sitting on the couch when the playoffs start. They only have a 12.6 percent chance to even get into the dance. So with these numbers in mind, where do we stand in the NFL after two weeks?
Five of the nine 2-0 teams, ranked by their chances of making the postseason
The Patriots, Chiefs, Cowboys and Rams are no surprise. Those might end up being the four teams in the conference championship games. They will be part of the 61 percent. There are five other teams sitting at 2-0. The Ravens, Packers, Seahawks, Bills, and Niners. Four out of those are “surprising,” as the Ravens did win their division last season. Math would suggest that only one or two teams will make the playoffs, but I’m feeling generous this season, so I’ll assume two of them get in.
Let’s rank them:
- Baltimore Ravens. They have to be first because of their division. The Bengals are 0-2 and just got smoked by the Niners at home. They are bad. The Steelers are 0-2 and are banged up. The Browns are still a question mark at 0-1. The Ravens have a schedule set up for success and an offense that doesn’t appear to have any way to stop. I’ve been Debbie Downer on them before, but I’m going to have to swallow my pride and acknowledge the Ravens are winning the division.
- Green Bay Packers. This is a vote of confidence for Aaron Rodgers and the defense. First off, the defense is crushing it. I know they haven’t exactly played two offensive juggernauts in the Bears and Vikings, but once again, good teams should beat worse teams. The Packers’ defense has allowed 19 points in two games. Plus, Rodgers looked more comfortable in the offense in Week 2, and the offense will only continue to grow from here. They have a great chance to win the division now after starting 2-0.
- Seattle Seahawks. They are my next pick because they’ve been there before. I trust Russell Wilson in big game situations, and their defense will always be capable under Pete Carroll. If the Seahawks ever decide to run the offense through Wilson instead of “establishing the run,” they’d be elite on offense. Wilson throws the best deep ball in the league, plus can use his legs to win the game, as he did to ice the game in Pittsburgh.
- Buffalo Bills. Against my better judgment probably, the Bills are next on the list. They don’t do anything “special.” They play outstanding defense, but their offense is just OK with Josh Allen guiding it. But in that division, that’s all they need from Allen to get four wins. They’ve beaten the Jets and Giants now, and I can find three or four more wins on the schedule. Allen needs to protect the ball, unlike in Week 1, and let the defense plus rushing attack help the team win games.
- San Francisco 49ers. They are the new kids on the block. It’s hard to put money on them when their division has the Rams and Seahawks ahead of them. But, there’s much to be encouraged about with the offense. It looked like a classical Kyle Shanahan offense in Week 2: unique, fast, and fresh. However, Joe Staley, their left tackle, breaking his fibula is a rough injury for them, and their defense is probably closer to average if they played anyone who can move the ball.
Four of the nine 0-8 teams, ranked by their chances of making the postseason
Last year, the Texans and Seahawks both started 0-2 and made the playoffs. Can any of this year’s 0-2 teams, against the odds, do it?
The Dolphins are a hard no. They might be the worst team I’ve ever seen with my eyes. The Bengals, Giants, Jets, and Washington aren’t doing anything this season. That leaves some surprising 0-2 teams: the Steelers, Panthers, Jaguars, and Broncos. Although two teams did it last year, it’s more likely that only one of these final four make the dance.
Here’s how I rank them:
- Carolina Panthers. I wrote about the Panthers at length after their loss on Thursday. You can find that here. I still believe they are a talented team, have an outstanding coach, and can recharge the offense. Unlike the Steelers or Jaguars, their starting QB is “healthy.” The Panthers’ schedule is tough down the stretch, but for whatever reason, I think Ron Rivera has this team clicking to end the season. Throw out last season when Newton was clearly hurt, the Panthers under Rivera are 36-20 between 2011-17 after eight games.
- Jacksonville Jaguars. I loved watching Gardner Minshew play some hectic football at the end, leading the Jaguars down the field in Houston for a touchdown that put the Jaguars a point away from tying the game. Going for the win, Doug Marrone kept his offense on the field to attempt a two-point conversion. I LOVED the call. Heck why not. You have the confidence after a long scoring drive ... So what do the Jaguars call? A freaking inside zone from shotgun! That’s your best two-point play? Terrible. That’s just poor coaching.
- Denver Broncos. There’s almost no chance for them. They can barely score. Scoring points is how you win in the NFL. It’s that simple.
- Pittsburgh Steelers. I originally had them at No. 2 on this list, out of respect for their organization and Mike Tomlin. With the news that Ben Roethlisberger is now out for the year, I dropped the Steelers to last. Mason Rudolph might be their future, but I can’t see them winning nine out of their last 14 with a backup QB. They are the team I think I’ve been the most wrong about. I thought for sure they were winning the AFC North, but not anymore.
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