Patrick Mahomes is built to rally the Chiefs from a Super Bowl deficit

10 points vs. the Titans. 14 points vs. the Patriots. 24 (TWENTY-FOUR!) points against the Texans.

These are all deficits Patrick Mahomes has faced in a postseason career that’s spanned only four games so far. He erased every single one of them — even if New England staged its own comeback to win the AFC title game a year ago when the Chiefs never saw the ball in overtime.

Mahomes’ late-game mastery has led to a 3-1 playoff record and a place in Super Bowl 54. That’s where he’ll face the San Francisco 49ers for the second time in his career.

The Niners have averaged 6.7 first-quarter points through the regular season and playoffs — the third-best mark in the NFL. (Mahomes’ Chiefs rank 10th at 5.4.) San Francisco hasn’t tailed for a minute in the postseason. In fact, the 49ers led for 92:26 of a possible 120 minutes of game time on their road to the Super Bowl.

If the 2019 season is any indication, the Chiefs are probably going to fall behind early once more. This isn’t a problem, however. Mahomes has been an absolute monster when his team has asked him to throw his way out of a hole. And that means San Francisco can’t get comfortable with any lead, no matter the size.

In four postseason games, all in the hyped-up environment of Arrowhead Stadium, Mahomes has only held a first-quarter lead once. That was against the Colts last January in the Divisional Round, where he led a 90-yard touchdown march on Kansas City’s first possession.

This set an unsustainable expectation for the games that followed. Mahomes’ opening drives in his next three playoff games all ended in punt attempts. Only a Reggie Ragland interception in the end zone against New England prevented opponents from turning all three of those punts into early touchdowns.

Luckily for the Chiefs, Mahomes only gets better as his playoff games wear on.

Aided by drops and some general lethargy across the Chiefs lineup, Mahomes’ first quarters in the postseason have seen him play roughly as well as Kyle Orton did in Kansas City. This is in stark contrast to Mahomes’ numbers during the regular season, when he’s recorded a career 107.9 passer rating, a 20:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and run for 7.5 yards per carry in the first quarter.

With that bad stretch out of the way, Mahomes turns into one of the greatest playmakers the NFL has ever seen. Only one of his 11 playoff touchdown passes has come in the first 15 minutes of game time. He’s also run for six total yards in the first quarter of those games (3.0 yards per carry, zero touchdowns) and 119 yards in the final 45 minutes (6.6 yards per carry, two touchdowns).

Let’s isolate those numbers to exclude the 2019 win over the Colts. That afternoon, the Chiefs built a 17-0 lead early in the second quarter and ran the ball 33 times — the most rushing plays Andy Reid has ever called with Mahomes as his starter. Instead, let’s focus on the games where Mahomes has had to will his team back through the air.

Here’s what those numbers look like.

When Mahomes trails early, he roars back to life: 17 percent of his second-quarter passes have ended in Kansas City touchdowns. If he were able to keep that pace through a full 60 minutes, he’d average 367 passing yards (!) and seven(ish) touchdown passes per playoff game (oh my GOD).

It’s not just with his arm, either. With his back against the wall, he can do things like this:

While he hasn’t maintained those numbers into the third quarter, he remains absurdly efficient thanks to his ability to make big plays downfield. His 131.4 passer rating in the fourth quarter is better than any other quarterback with more than one postseason start since 1994. Mahomes has averaged 10.4 yards per pass in the second half when he’s had to come from behind in the playoffs. For comparison’s sake, Ryan Tannehill led the league with 9.6 yards per pass in the 2019 regular season. No other quarterback threw for more than 8.6 yards per attempt.

Not only has Mahomes been at his peak when his team has needed him the most — he’s put up these amazing numbers against the best teams the AFC had to offer. This is the kind of resume that will keep San Francisco defensive coordinator Robert Saleh sleepless in the two-week run-up to Super Bowl 54.

San Francisco is built to control the ball. Kyle Shanahan hasn’t shied away from run-heavy offensive attacks to devastate playoff opponents and burn time off the clock.

In two postseason wins, the 49ers have rushed for 471 yards and passed for only 191. Tevin Coleman ran for 105 yards against the Vikings in a game where San Francisco dialed up 12 straight running plays in the third quarter to bury Minnesota. This was just a preview of the NFC Championship Game. Raheem Mostert, elevated to the top of the depth chart due to Coleman’s shoulder injury, set franchise records by rushing for 220 yards and four touchdowns to dust the Packers.

In those two games, the Niners have controlled the ball for 67 minutes, smothering the Vikings’ and Packers’ comeback efforts. The key to shutting them in the playoffs may lie in their opponent’s ability to stop the run. This could be bad news for a Chiefs team that ranked 29th in rushing defense efficiency during the regular season.

Or not, because it wasn’t a problem against Derrick Henry and a similarly rush-dominant team in the AFC title game.

But while the defense may have survived a major test last week, Mahomes’ offensive line will face its toughest challenge of the year in Miami. The big-armed quarterback can be pressured into mistakes downfield — and the Niners have the horses to create that brand of chaos in the pocket.

San Francisco ranked third in the NFL with an 8.5 percent sack rate in the regular season. Four different players — DeForest Buckner, Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, and Dee Ford — all had 6.5 sacks or more. That group has nine postseason sacks so far, totaling 76 lost yards for the Vikings and Packers in two games.

Shanahan is going to need both his offense and his defense to come through to limit Mahomes’ opportunities in Super Bowl 54. Not only that, but the 49ers may have to do something no team has ever done to win their first NFL title in 25 years: make Mahomes look mortal in the second and fourth quarters of a playoff game.