How Mike Vrabel can be the next former Patriot to upend Bill Belichick

For a very long time, Bill Belichick was nearly invincible when pitted against his former assistants. Between 2007 and 2018, Belichick acolytes went just 4-11 against the Pats.

That trend began to crack in 2018, however, and it could crumble this winter. The last two seasons, former Patriots players and coaches alike have been able to get the upper hand on Belichick, going 4-1 against their mentor. That success has come against a team that won a Super Bowl last season, and won another 12 games ahead of this year’s playoffs. It also is threatening to end an incredible streak of dominance.

Since 2010, the Patriots have played in every single AFC title game, winning five times. They’ve dominated the conference so much, that scores of children only know the AFC Championship as that one playoff game between the Patriots and a rotating cast of challengers.

This Saturday afternoon in Foxborough, Titans head coach, and former Patriots linebacker, Mike Vrabel has an opportunity to shatter Belichick’s aura with a win. The Patriots are already playing in the Wild Card Round after failing to secure a bye for the first time in 10 years. If the Patriots lose, they will have failed to win a playoff game for the first time in the same span, as well.

And Vrabel and the Titans have a good shot of pulling off the win. Here’s why:

The 2018 season was the turning point after assistants like Bill O’Brien, Eric Mangini, and Romeo Crennel all repeatedly fell short.

Former Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia led the Lions to a dominant 26-10 victory over New England in his rookie season as head coach (one of only nine wins he’s had in two years). Vrabel — not technically part of Belichick’s coaching tree but a player who spent eight seasons in New England — then led a Titans team laden with former Pats to a 34-10 win over New England in his rookie season.

While those losses didn’t stop the Patriots from becoming Super Bowl champs, Belichick’s struggles against underlings in 2019 might. In Week 13, O’Brien logged his first win against his former coach in six tries when the Texans beat New England, 28-22. In Week 17, Dolphins head coach Brian Flores, a former 15-year veteran of the Patriots’ organization, pulled off this season’s biggest upset with a 27-24 win in at Gillette Stadium as a 17-point underdog. Those losses knocked the Patriots down to the Wild Card Round, a place they hadn’t been since 2009.

In the last two years, Belichick’s only win in five tries against his followers was a blowout over a tanking Miami team that began the year 0-7. The Titans will be a stiffer test.

The Patriots finished first in the NFL in both points and yards allowed in 2019. They forced more turnovers than any team except the Steelers. Eight different players had at least three sacks for the league’s most balanced pass rush.

But in the midst of a lot big performances was one major concern: New England struggled to bottle up tailbacks.

Four different rushers, ranging from 23-year-old Joe Mixon to 36-year-old Frank Gore, notched 100-plus yards against the Patriots in 2019. Six different players had at least 15 carries and more than four yards per carry. Le’Veon Bell’s 15-carry, 70-yard performance in Week 7 was the most efficient game he had in a lost season with the Jets.

As a result, a unit that ranked in the top five of most defensive categories ranked just 14th in the league in yards allowed per carry (4.2). That’s mediocre, even before you consider the lackluster slate of running backs the Patriots faced. Players who earned double-digit carries against New England this season included Patrick Laird (2.7 yards per carry in 2019), Jon Hilliman (3.0), and Bell (3.2).

On Saturday, that team will face Derrick Henry, this season’s leading rusher. Henry — roughly the size of an RV, but with the breakaway speed of a Formula 1 car — has been a dynamo in his fourth season. Over his last six games, he has rushed for 895 yards on 6.5 yards per carry, and 10 touchdowns; that’s the equivalent of a 2,389-yard, 27-touchdown season across 16 games.

He will be well-rested when he takes on the Pats after sitting out a meaningless Week 16 game against the Saints to help heal a nagging hamstring injury.

The Titans will also have Dion Lewis, who boasted after the Titans’ 2018 win over New England by calling his former team “cheap,” and accurately dubbed the game an ass-kicking.

If the Titans are able to lean on the run game, they’ll have a shot to make history.

But that’s because ex-Pats rarely get very far. These are the coaches who have beaten Belichick’s New England teams in the postseason.

None of them branched from Belichick’s coaching tree. He has only faced a former assistant once in the postseason — Bill O’Brien’s Texans in 2016’s Divisional Round — because most of them have gone on to be, well, underwhelming as NFL head coaches. Ten of his one-time assistants and players, including Vrabel, have gone on to NFL head coaching jobs. Combined, they have 1-5 postseason record. Four of those playoff appearances are courtesy of O’Brien.

The Patriots have several factors working against their quest for a ninth straight AFC title game. Doubters can point out this year’s lack of a playoff bye, the presence of three teams in the postseason who have already beaten the Patriots, or the idea of Henry blasting through holes in Foxborough.

If New England slinks out of the playoffs, it will have to consider some difficult questions. Would New England, armed with a draft pick in the low-20s (and no second-round pick thanks to the not-yet-worth-it Mohamed Sanu trade) target Tom Brady’s successor at quarterback? Would Belichick, facing free agent decisions on key players like Kyle Van Noy, Devin McCourty, Danny Shelton, Adam Butler, and Jamie Collins, spend big to keep his defense together to counter his waning offense?

A Wild Card Round loss would bring up the most scrutinized offseason the Patriots have had since trading Matt Cassel to the Chiefs in 2009, or perhaps even the 2002 offseason when Brady claimed the starting role from Drew Bledsoe. A win would kick those decisions down the line ... for another week, at least.