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Come Fan with UsSaturday, June 20, 2026

Ranking the 8 remaining NFL playoff teams by trustworthiness before the Divisional Round

There were a few surprises on Wild Card Weekend, shaking up Geoff Schwartz’s latest confidence rankings.

NFL: San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens
NFL: San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens
Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

Football is the greatest sport in the world and wow, did the NFL show out this weekend. The games weren’t always the best, but they were entertaining. We had two No. 6 seeds go on the road for victories in places thought to have magical homefield powers. The Texans came back from down, 16-0, to win at home, and the Seahawks went to Philadelphia for the road victory.

So where do all these results move my confidence rankings heading into the Divisional Round? Here’s what I think of the eight remaining playoff teams:

1. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens easily remain here. They are one of the best teams Football Outsiders has ever charted. They can do it all and while I was on the fence about them for the first half of the season, it’s hard to deny where they are now. Their defense has made the biggest jump from the start of the season until now. They are a dominating unit that loves to bring pressure.

Offensively, we know what they are about: Running the ball straight at you. Lamar Jackson is accurate in the play-action pass game. The only concern I see is the Ravens coming out rusty, but since they are a run-based offense, I don’t think that happens.

2. San Francisco 49ers

I thought the Saints were the best team in the NFC. Oops on that. The road is now clearer for the 49ers, who got healthier this weekend during their bye. Next week, they get a Vikings team coming off that big win over the Saints. But, simply put, the 49ers are better.

3. Kansas City Chiefs

I wish we stopped saying, especially when teams aren’t in the same division, “well, team A already beat team B,” as if they are expecting that again. Games that happen earlier in the season can give us a good idea about how a team might scheme up the other, but often, teams change a lot if they meet again in the playoffs.

The Chiefs lost to the Texans at home in Week 6. The Chiefs were missing several starters, including their left tackle, a wide receiver, and their middle linebacker. Patrick Mahomes was banged up. The Chiefs’ defense has vastly improved since that time and their offense is healthy again. They should steamroll the Texans.

4. Minnesota Vikings

Yes, the Vikings are here, ahead of the Packers. Guess why? They are a better overall team. They played a masterpiece against the Saints Sunday. They pressured and harassed Drew Brees early and often. They moved Everson Griffen inside to find favorable matchups. Their run defense shut down Alvin Kamara. No one was open most of the game. Their run game was on fire.

BUT, most importantly, Kirk Cousins made some big-time throws. He finally got the monkey off his back in a big game. And if that Cousins shows up the rest of the playoffs, the Vikings are a tough out, folks.

5. Green Bay Packers

The Packers get the Seahawks in Lambeau Field. They should win this game, because the Seahawks are simply worse than the Packers. The Packers’ defensive line, including the Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith duo, should dominate the Seahawks’ offensive line. The Packers should run the ball well, too.

But again, what do the Packers do so well that you’re worried about them? It feels like the hope with the Packers is basically “if Aaron Rodgers becomes his old self.” That’s why I don’t have them higher ranked.

6. Seattle Seahawks

Oh boy, do they win ugly. There’s been no tweet more evergreen than this beauty from Kevin Clark:

The Seahawks continue to win because their quarterback is a Hall of Famer. Russell Wilson is a pleasure to watch and he continues to always make it right for Seattle. DK Metcalf, who many thought would struggle in the NFL, is continuing to show out. That pair helped the Seahawks take down the Eagles.

It’s hard to judge the Seattle defense, which entered the game barely average, against the Eagles because the Birds were so darn beat up. Carson Wentz got injured, and then Josh McCown was limping by the end of the game as he was throwing to guys who were recently called up from the practice squad.

But the Seahawks won again. They continue to just do enough with Wilson at QB. But just enough isn’t winning the Super Bowl.

7. Tennessee Titans

I’m here to wade through the bullshit and give you the facts. The Titans won in New England because the Patriots’ offense was awful. Just terrible. I don’t think the Titans did anything special on defense to stop the Patriots.

Derrick Henry rushed for 182 yards on 34 carries, plus added another long reception on a screen pass. And guess what? The Titans scored 14 points on offense. That’s not beating the Ravens. The Titans will need Ryan Tannehill to produce better than what he did against the Patriots — 8 of 15 for 72 yards, a touchdown, and a terrible interception — to win in Baltimore.

8. Houston Texans

Bill O’Brien has coached the Texans in four home playoff games. They’ve been shut out in the first half in three of those. That’s, umm, not good.

Thankfully, O’Brien has Deshaun Watson, a freak show at the QB position who can make things right when everything else is going bad. Watson is a tad more up and down than I’d like, but when it comes to crunch time, he’s the guy.

The Texans seem to have zero plans to deal with pressure on offense, though. It’s maddening. The Chiefs will bring the house. If receiver Will Fuller can’t play again, that sets the Texans back, as they are at least 10 percent worse on third down without him in the lineup.

As a reminder, here’s a look at next week’s playoff schedule:

All times are ET.

Divisional Round

Saturday, Jan. 11:

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers, 4:35 p.m.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens, 8:15 p.m.

Sunday, Jan. 12:

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs, 3:05 p.m.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers, 6:40 p.m.

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