Is Tom Brady really worth $30 million to the Patriots in 2020?

Tom Brady is set to hit the open market for the first time in a 20-year career. After years of signing bargain contracts for hometown discounts, the six-time Super Bowl champion could reclaim his status as one of the league’s highest-paid players.

NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported New England is willing to give the passer responsible for all six of the franchise’s NFL championships a $30 million+ salary to keep him with the only team he’s ever known. This would be a big turnaround for a player who’s signed below-market deals recently in order to pad out his roster around him.

It would also leave major questions for the Patriots to face this offseason, even with their veteran quarterback in tow. Namely: How much is a 43-year-old Brady worth?

Paying Brady a top-six salary in 2020 based on his 2019 performance would be a leap of faith from the Patriots, who typically have been steely when it comes to retaining aging talent. A contract with an average value of $30+ million would stand as one of the 10 richest in the NFL — more than Jimmy Garoppolo, Matthew Stafford, or Derek Carr averaged in previous record-setting deals. It would still trail, even with inflation, the mega-extensions signed by fellow veterans Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger, though both are only in their late-30s instead of their early-40s.

There’s no doubt Brady was worthy of a top salary all the way up until 2018, but this past leaves room for concern. Here’s where he ranked statistically as a passer in his age-42 season.

That doesn’t tell the whole story of his 2019. He was the driving offensive force behind a 12-4 team that won the AFC East for the 11th straight season. But much of that strength came from a defense that ranked best in the NFL in both yards and points allowed. When that unit needed an extra counterpunch to beat good teams, Brady struggled to provide it.

His Patriots went just 3-4 against playoff teams, and the two teams they did beat — the Bills and Eagles — failed to advance out of the Wild Card Round. Brady threw for 637 yards in those games and recorded just 5.4 yards per attempt.

Here were his numbers in the seven starts he had against teams that advanced to the postseason, including the Patriots’ loss to the Titans:

Not good! Jay Cutler, for comparison’s sake, had a 75.1 passer rating and a 9:7 touchdown:interception ratio in his lone comeback season with the Dolphins in 2017.

One major caveat in Brady’s sudden downturn can be traced to his lack of playmaking support. Rob Gronkowski retired and was replaced by Matt LaCosse, Ryan Izzo, and a 38-year-old Ben Watson. Together, they combined for 36 catches, 418 yards, and two touchdowns.

An overtaxed receiving corps couldn’t pick up that slack. Julian Edelman remained a reliable target (11 drops aside), but his supporting cast couldn’t keep pace. First-round rookie N’Keal Harry missed the first half of the season due to injury and didn’t make much of a difference upon his return. Josh Gordon was mostly a non-factor before getting hurt and then released; he’s currently on the league’s exempt list after failing another league drug test.

Antonio Brown signed a $10 million contract with the Pats and lasted one game before his off-field baggage led to his release. Mohamed Sanu, acquired before the trade deadline at the steep cost of a second-round pick, had little influence upon his arrival, injured his ankle soon after, and had 15 catches in his final seven games. Despite all these opportunities, Phillip Dorsett was mostly an ignored presence on the depth chart.

This put all the more pressure on New England’s offensive line and running game, which didn’t step up. Center David Andrews missed the entire season due to blood clots in his lungs. Left tackle Isaiah Wynn was out half the season with a lower leg injury, forcing the team to turn to September free agent Marshall Newhouse to protect Brady’s blindside for its first eight games. That went ... poorly.

Fullback James Develin went on injured reserve after just two games. His replacement, Jakob Johnson, made it four games before landing on IR. Linebacker Elandon Roberts had to move to the backfield in their steads.

This all contributed to a massive sophomore slump from Sony Michel. The former first-round pick was electric in New England’s run to Super Bowl 53, rushing for six touchdowns in three postseason games. But in 2019, his yards per carry dropped from 4.5 to 3.7 — even as his yards after contact (2.4 to 2.4) and broken tackle rate (11.0 to 10.9 percent) remained the same.

That’s a lot of moving parts that went awry, and it would be foolish to believe Brady was insulated by the swirling tide of awfulness that surrounded him. At no one point was this more evident than in the team’s home loss to the Titans in the playoffs.

And despite all this, New England still ranked 11th in the league in offensive efficiency, per Football Outsiders. There’s room to build from there.

That leaves this team with plenty of holes to plug in order to make one or two (or three?) seasons of mid-40s Brady worthwhile at a high price. So how would they get there?

As it currently stands, the Patriots are slated to have a little more than $50 million in cap space headed into the 2020 offseason, not counting Brady’s voided $6.7 million hit. Brady’s deal would eat up somewhere between $20 and $30 million in space for next season, which would immediately handcuff the club when it comes to signing veteran help. The bulk of whatever’s left over would likely go toward pending free agents like Devin McCourty, Kyle Van Noy, Danny Shelton, or Jamie Collins, all of whom were vital to the Pats’ league-best defense last season.

Not all of those guys will be back, but the ones who re-sign will leave precious little salary cap space around them. While players like A.J. Green, Emmanuel Sanders, and Eric Ebron will be available in free agency, New England may not be able to harvest the cream of that underwhelming crop. The Pats could be stuck trying to turn other teams’ unpolished goods into gems, either through that market or via low-key trade.

That works out great when those guys turn out to be Wes Welker, LeGarrette Blount, or Randy Moss. It’s been much less of a boon when those buy-low deals have brought in players like Eric Decker, Jordan Matthews, or Scott Chandler.

The draft is another viable avenue to add talent, but not an especially reliable one. Bill Belichick’s track record with receiver prospects isn’t especially successful, and the jury’s still out on last year’s top pick Harry. The Patriots are also without their second-round pick thanks to the aforementioned Sanu trade.

This puts the them in a bit of a catch-22. Brady needs better targets, but if he’s going to re-sign in New England for $30 million, the team won’t be able to afford many upgrades. That leaves a thin line for Belichick to walk when it comes to balancing his roster over the final however-many years of his star quarterback’s career.

There’s a chance Brady finishes his career outside New England. The Raiders are reportedly interested in making him the crown jewel of their debut season in Las Vegas. Or the two-time regular season MVP could make a return to his home state now that no one’s really quite sure what the future holds for the Chargers and free agent quarterback Philip Rivers. Several other teams could use him as a towering bridge between their present and future at quarterback.

It’s easy to see why he’d be a wanted man outside Foxborough. Brady has spent the back half of his career shattering expectations for aging quarterbacks. He’s the oldest player to ever win MVP honors and the oldest starting QB to win a Super Bowl. Projecting his decline is a futile exercise.

His 2019, however, was not a season worthy of a $30 million deal, no matter what his legacy says. Paying out the nose for Brady would ensure a New England legend stays in town, but it would also handicap his team’s ability to fill the holes that led to its worst playoff performance in a decade. There’s no way both Brady and Belichick don’t know that.

So the question now is whether they hurtle forward toward mutually assured destruction, or whether they’ll return to the careful roster building that’s helped make the Patriots the most accomplished team of the millennium.