The football world was taken by surprise when one of the best receivers in the NFL was traded for not much at all. The Houston Texans sent DeAndre Hopkins, an All-Pro in each of the last three seasons, and a 2020 fourth-round pick to the Arizona Cardinals.
4 winners and 3 losers from the blockbuster DeAndre Hopkins trade
The Texans and Cardinals weren’t the only teams affected by the swap of DeAndre Hopkins and David Johnson.
In return, the Texans will get the Cardinals’ 2020 second-round pick, a fourth-round pick in 2021, and running back David Johnson.
It’s a trade that could immediately push the Cardinals into the thick of the competitive NFC West race. For the Texans, the deal is much more puzzling. They lost their best receiving threat for only a second-round pick and an overpaid running back who hasn’t produced much at all since 2016.
Beyond those two teams, the deal may have a ripple effect across the entire NFL. Here are four winners and three losers from the blockbuster deal:
Winner: DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins wasn’t in a bad situation in Houston. He signed a five-year, $81 million extension in 2017 and was targeted at least 150 times in each of the last five seasons. Hopkins had an ascending young quarterback in Deshaun Watson passing him the ball and was on a team that made the playoffs in four of the last five years.
But there are a few reasons the Cardinals could be an even better opportunity:
- Hopkins is likely to get an extension now. He wasn’t making chump change in Houston, but he was due $39.9 million over the final three years of his deal. With Julio Jones making $22 million per year and Michael Thomas at an average of $19.25 million, the final years of Hopkins’ deal were well below market value for an elite receiver. The Texans weren’t likely to pony up for another extension when they still had Hopkins on the hook until 2023, especially with Watson and left tackle Laremy Tunsil due for their own extensions. On the other hand, the Cardinals will probably want to lock down their 27-year-old prized receiver for the long haul.
- The Cardinals could give Hopkins even more targets. It’s still early in the Kliff Kingsbury era in Arizona, but the early returns suggest the Cardinals’ offense won’t be a college football-esque aerial attack. In 2019, they ranked 18th in the NFL in pass attempts with 554 and fourth in the NFL in seconds between offensive play. As the team gets better on defense, it’ll run more and more plays. And that means targets aplenty for Hopkins, who will immediately be the No. 1 receiver.
- Kingsbury isn’t Bill O’Brien. According to Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle, friction between O’Brien and Hopkins was part of the reasoning behind the trade. In Arizona, Hopkins gets to escape that and start over with a young head coach.
Winner: David Johnson
Once upon a time, Johnson was the NFL’s fantasy football king. He had 2,118 yards from scrimmage during the 2016 season, with 20 rushing and receiving touchdowns. Then a wrist injury derailed his career. Johnson missed 15 games in 2017 and hasn’t managed to get back on track since.
Now Johnson will get a fresh start in Houston. Carlos Hyde had the first 1,000-yard season of his career with the Texans in 2019 and Duke Johnson was targeted 62 times as a pass catcher. With Hyde set to leave as a free agent, there should be opportunities for David Johnson to revive his career.
Loser: Bill O’Brien
The Texans’ consistent failures in the postseason reflect poorly on O’Brien as a coach. He’s been even worse as an executive. O’Brien mortgaged the future in 2019 by trading away Houston’s first-round picks in 2020 and 2021, as well as the team’s second-round pick in 2021, to land Tunsil and receiver Kenny Stills. He also shipped away linebacker Jadeveon Clowney to the Seahawks for a third-round pick and a pair of linebackers.
Now he sent away another core piece of the team. O’Brien is somehow bleeding the Texans of talent AND getting hardly any draft capital in return.
By comparison, here’s what the Vikings got for trading Stefon Diggs, a player one year younger than Hopkins but with three fewer 1,000-yard seasons and first-team All-Pro nods:
- a first-, fifth-, and sixth-round pick in 2020
- a fourth-round pick in 2021
The Vikings also threw in a seventh-rounder in the deal with the Bills.
The Texans traded away one of the game’s best wideouts for pennies on the dollar. Hours later, the Vikings got appropriate value for Diggs. Not only did Houston get fleeced, but the lopsidedness of its trade got put in context on the same damn day by two franchises that ignored O’Brien’s earlier deal and evaluated their talent like actual NFL general managers.
Winner: Teams that want to draft a receiver
In the latest mock draft from SB Nation’s Dan Kadar, the Cardinals were projected to pick Oklahoma receiver CeeDee Lamb at No. 8 overall. With Larry Fitzgerald nearing retirement and Christian Kirk still developing as an option for Murray, an upgrade at the position looked like a must for Arizona.
Now that the Cardinals have Hopkins, receiver is no longer their top priority in the draft.
That’s wonderful news for teams looking to draft a receiver early. Take the Raiders, for example. They’re picking 12th and are projected by Kadar to select a receiver in the first round. Without the Cardinals as competition, the Raiders have a better shot at landing the receiver they covet most. The same could be said for the 49ers, who need a receiver and own the No. 13 pick in the draft after trading DeForest Buckner to the Colts.
Loser: Teams that want to draft an offensive tackle
The Cardinals’ biggest need in the draft is an offensive tackle to keep Murray upright. That’s bad news for teams looking for OL help in the draft.
The Browns and Jets — picking 10th and 11th, respectively — are both projected by Kadar to take offensive tackles. That could mean Cleveland and/or New York miss out on their first choice with Arizona set to pick ahead of them.
Winner: Kyler Murray
Murray finished his first NFL season with 3,722 passing yards, 544 rushing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, four rushing touchdowns, and Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. Those are especially impressive numbers when you consider his lackluster supporting cast.
Murray’s top receiver last season was Fitzgerald. While Fitzgerald is a future Hall of Famer, he’ll be 37 at the start of next season. Hopkins can come in and be a bona fide No. 1 receiver for Murray, which means Fitzgerald won’t have to do the heavy lifting anymore.
The Cardinals are also free to draft an offensive tackle in the top 10 to protect Murray, who was sacked an NFL-high 48 times in 2019. Most quarterbacks make significant strides in year two. Murray is primed to follow in the footsteps of Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson and push his way into the elite tier in year two.
Loser: Deshaun Watson
He’s been sacked 106 times in the last two seasons. Now Watson is without his top target.
While he has Will Fuller, Kenny Stills, and the recently signed Randall Cobb to throw the ball to, none of those guys are as sure-handed or durable as Hopkins.
Watson already has to play hero way too much for the Texans. How much longer should he have to carry the team by himself?
Someone, please give him some dang help.
