The secret reason NFL teams don’t need an elite running back anymore

The Carolina Panthers have signed running back Christian McCaffrey to a $64 million extension, making him the highest-paid running back in NFL history. With that decision, the Panthers have made the same mistake the Rams, Cowboys, and countless others in the NFL continue to make: paying a running back a second contract.

While I love running backs just like y’all do, there’s no evidence this strategy works when building a winning team. It’s unfortunate, but running backs don’t hold value in the NFL like they once did. And to be clear, having a good running back is important to your offense, but paying one top dollar isn’t worth it.

Just looking at the numbers from last season only, where did we see the value returned in paying running backs? David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley, and Le’Veon Bell all got paid, and none of them helped their teams make the playoffs. People will point to Derrick Henry getting the Titans close to the Super Bowl, but maybe we should look at his stats pre- Ryan Tannehill vs. with Tannehill. Before Tannehill, Henry averaged 3.68 yards per carry and with Tannehill, he averaged 5.91. Tannehill must be the best running backs coach of all time.

McCaffrey, for all his playmaking skills, is going to be the next in line. I keep hearing that CMC is a “different” back, because of his ability to catch the ball. And it’s true. McCaffrey is the first running back in NFL history to have 2,500 yards rushing AND 2,500 yards receiving by the end of his third season. However, those stats are misleading.

McCaffrey has 15 games in his career with double-digit receiving targets. The team has won one of those 15 games. McCaffrey has five games with over 100 yards receiving. The team has won zero of those games.

In a disastrous 2019 season for the Panthers — with Cam Newton being hurt and Ron Rivera getting fired — you’d figure big performances from McCaffrey as a receiver would boost the Panthers. Nope. Two games with 100 yards receiving, two games where the Panthers scored three and six points. Those are empty stats.

If a quarterback puts up tons of passing yards while losing, we’d make the argument those stats should be ignored as the team is behind a bunch. The same should be applied here with CMC. His numbers are impressive, but they’re not helping the Panthers win. His contract won’t either.

So this raises the question: Why do these uber-talented running backs not hold their value?

In recent years, undrafted and late-round picks are doing just as good of a job, for far less money, at running back. We rarely see this at other positions. Quarterback? Most of the top ones are drafted within the top 45 picks. Pass rusher? First- or second-round picks. Elite offensive linemen? Mostly high picks.

I’ve figured out the reason: Box counts.

A box count is the number of defenders in the box for any given play, but it’s mostly used to describe the amount of defenders on rushing plays. You have either a good box count, meaning six blockers (5 OL + 1 TE) for six defenders, or a bad box count (six blockers for seven defenders).

Before NFL offenses started to spread out, the general idea in the rushing game was “making the extra defender miss.” We’d call a run, and no matter the box count, you’d run it. If you had seven blockers and eight defenders, the runner just had to make that extra guy miss.

Looking back on it, it was a silly way to design the run game, but this is why you needed an elite back, especially when more offenses were so run heavy. If you didn’t have special talent at the running back position, you couldn’t make that extra guy miss, and the rushing attempt wouldn’t be successful.

As NFL offenses have evolved and stretched the field with their formations and play concepts, it’s opened up the rushing attack. Teams are much smarter about how they run the ball. They plan to run the ball only into good box counts, where there are enough blockers for defenders.

And if the box count is bad, they have a better answer for that, either via a run-pass option, formational adjustments, or changing the play.

Teams have achieved better box counts by eliminating the fullback and spreading out the formation so the defense must match. Or, if a team is still using a fullback, it’s generating a run game with better leverage for their offensive linemen, like the 49ers do well. There’s no running uphill or into these bad box counts.

So when you’re working to set up the run game for success and only rushing into good box counts, you don’t need that top-level running back to “make guys miss” anymore. Add into the equation the spreading of a defense over a formation, and the rushing lanes are bigger.

It should be “easier” to run the ball now with less-talented players. This is why we are seeing success of offenses without highly paid, or highly drafted, running backs.