The Bengals’ uncharacteristic big-money rebuild depends on A.J. Green

The Bengals might finally be changing their stingy ways after handing out nearly $150 million in free agent contracts this spring. D.J. Reader, Vonn Bell, and Trae Waynes each signed with Cincinnati in hopes of spurring change for one of the league’s most snakebitten franchises.

Those players will all help on the defensive side of the ball, but the move that may pay the biggest dividend could be the re-signing of a 31-year-old wideout who didn’t play a single game in 2019. And that makes perfect sense.

Cincinnati kept seven-time Pro Bowler A.J. Green with the franchise tag, extending his tenure in tiger stripes for at least one more year at approximately $17.8 million. No one on the Bengals’ roster will cost more against the salary cap than Green this fall.

While 2020’s free agency period has been predicated on upgrading the defense, Cincinnati sent a message about how it can rebuild its offense. With prospective No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow set to take the reins, Green is a weapon who could help turn Burrow into a true franchise quarterback.

The Bengals know 2020 won’t be an easy year for Burrow. The reigning Heisman winner will have to make the jump from college football’s top team to the NFL’s least successful team. His learning curve will be as steep as any other rookie in the league.

Keeping Green around helps. If a full season of rest and rehab has restored him to his 2016-17 form, he’ll rejoin peers like Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins atop the league’s list of most reliable playmakers. Even at 90 percent of his peak, he’d be the clear-cut WR1 in a receiving corps that also features Tyler Boyd, John Ross, and Auden Tate.

That’s the kind of lineup tailor-made to ease a young quarterback’s transition to the NFL.

There are plenty of concerns that come along with a soon-to-be 32-year-old who has played just nine games in his past two seasons. A quick look at what he brings to the lineup when he’s healthy, however, makes him a worthwhile risk. Here’s how Andy Dalton performed when he dialed up Green’s number downfield compared to all the times he didn’t over the last five years.

Andy Dalton targeting A.J. Green, 2015-19: 99.5 passer rating, 8.9 yards/attempt, 14.6 yards/catch, 6.2 percent TD rate

Andy Dalton targeting anyone else, 2015-19: 86.7 passer rating. 6.8 yards/attempt. 10.9 yards/catch, 4.1 percent TD rate

Green’s 452 targets the past five seasons are nearly 100 more than the next closest Bengal (Boyd, at 369), even though he missed 29 games due to injury in that span. He’s averaged more than nine targets per game as a pro while he was constantly No. 1 on opponents’ to-do list on Sundays. Despite that, he still managed to turn more than 80 percent of his receptions into first downs in 2018.

In 2020, he’ll go from Dalton’s bail-out option to Burrow’s, barring a surprising change of plans.

Green will give the rookie passer another top-of-the-market option after playing with a handful of them at LSU — early-round draft picks (in 2020 and beyond) like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Thaddeus Moss, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The 6’4 Green combines the best traits of guys like Chase, Jefferson, and Moss. He’s a big target who can consistently get open for deep plays or flash dependable hands past the line of scrimmage. That’s a win for Burrow, whose journey from the transfer portal to the Heisman Trophy was predicated on a big-play passing game.

While having players like Boyd, a hopefully healthy Ross, and Tate would help welcome Burrow to the league, none can replicate the blend of size and speed Green uses to create windows of opportunity. Since 2015, his average target distance downfield, per SIS, has been a healthy 12.6 yards past the line of scrimmage. That trails only deep threat Ross (15.1) for Dalton’s regular wideouts over the past five years. And while Ross has dropped nearly 19 percent of his targets, Green’s drop rate is only 5.6 percent.

Not only does Green give Burrow a 6’4, just-throw-it-I’ll-take-care-of-it target who can do this:

But his ability to confound the best cornerbacks creates a rising tide that lifts the Cincinnati passing game. Let’s take a look at what he brought to the table in the nine games he played back in 2018.

With Green in the lineup, Boyd broke through as a 1,000-yard receiver in his third season in the league. His numbers from the past two seasons suggests Boyd’s a great wideout when playing alongside Green ... and just an OK one when he’s not:

Tyler Boyd playing with A.J. Green (9 games): 74 targets, 55 catches, 717 yards, 79.7 yards per game, 13.0 yards/catch, 5 TDs, 74.3 percent catch rate

Tyler Boyd playing without A.J. Green (21 games): 182 targets, 111 catches, 1,357 yards, 64.6 yards/game, 12.2 yards/catch, 7 TDs, 61 percent catch rate

Boyd also had 9.7 yards per target alongside Green the past two years, which would rank 16th — tied with Amari Cooper — among qualified NFL wideouts. His 7.5 YPT figure he posted without Green ranks 82nd.

The return of the team’s top wideout will push Ross and Tate down the depth chart, but should also be a boon for each. Ross remains a mercurial talent whose first two seasons painted him as a first-round draft bust. In 2019, he used his speed en route to a career-best 506 yards (on only 28 catches) in only eight games. Alongside Green, he’ll have a chance to thrive by stretching the field for Burrow.

Tate was a useful, if inconsistent, playmaker for a 2-14 team last season. The 6’5 receiver can escape single coverage downfield and elevate to snatch the ball at its highest point — a window Burrow proved he can hit time and time again in last year’s national championship season. With Green, Boyd, and Ross consuming focus, Tate should have plenty of opportunities to be Burrow’s safety valve in 2020.

This is all very good news for second-year head coach Zac Taylor. Unsurprisingly, his Cincinnati debut, without Green and vacillating between Dalton and Ryan Finley at quarterback, went poorly. The Bengals ranked 29th in the league in passing efficiency last season.

The return of a healthy Pro Bowl receiver and a quarterback coming off one of the greatest seasons in college football can change that. Green may not be the answer to all of Burrow’s problems, but he can be the cheat sheet that helps the rookie pass each test the league throws at him. After all, that’s why the Bengals are making Green their highest-paid player.