Aaron Rodgers’ contract is impossibly bad for the Packers’ future

Things are very, very bad in Green Bay. The Packers suffered a backbreaking loss to the Lions on Sunday, which likely spelled the end to any playoff chances based on the team’s remaining schedule — but the far bigger looming problem is Aaron Rodgers’ contract.

Rodgers has been terrible by his own standards, on pace for his worst season since becoming a starter in 2008. That’s bad in its own right, but the huge financial commitment the franchise made to the 38-year-old this past offseason is what’s going to be an issue far beyond 2022.

The Packers were at a crossroads earlier this year and felt they had to make a decision on Rodgers. The past contract details are confusing, but critical here. In 2018 Rodgers signed a 4 year, $134M extension — which you’d think would have made him a free agent after 2021. However, the way this deal was structured the new terms didn’t begin until 2020.

It was a cap management move, while also rewarding the team’s most important player with money early. Then, in 2021 the team made another contract modification, voiding the 2023 year off the extension — which is a cap maneuver to push money into the future. This meant that Rodgers would have been a free agent following this season, with the Packers holding the option to franchise tag him in 2023 (should the need arise).

On paper this all seems fine. Rodgers was set to make $26.9M in 2022 and there he was performing at an MVP level, with Green Bay holding the cards. The issue is that Rodgers was making it clear he wanted one more contract extension, and the quiet part of this is that he would be willing to get it elsewhere.

Make no mistake: There was no shortage of suitors. Denver didn’t hide their desire to trade for Rodgers. Hell, the decision to hire Nathaniel Hackett as head coach was postmarked with “this is for Aaron,” while a number of teams including Carolina, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh and Cleveland were all rumored to have kicked the tires on a trade as well.

In the end Green Bay GM Brian Gutekunst was too afraid of letting Rodgers leave, even in a lucrative trade, and instead decided he’d be the one to step up and give Aaron the one last big contract he wanted. On March 14th Rodgers and the Packers signed a 3 year, $150M extension on his contract, with a staggering $101M of the deal guaranteed. That guarantee is critical, because it’s what’s led to this mess now.

The deal was more or less in line with what other franchise QBs were getting, especially the guaranteed money — which has become customary in modern NFL contracts for superstar players. If Rodgers continued to play at a MVP level then there’s no discussion of this deal. Obviously that hasn’t happened.

Prior to the extension the Packers really held the cards. The worst that could have happened was that Rodgers retired because he was annoyed with the organization, and they would have taken a cap hit in 2022 and 2023 before getting to move on with their lives.

Now Rodgers is in a complete power position. Because of the extension and the contract structuring he’s owed $99.8M left on the deal, with $32M due next year alone — all fully guaranteed. It means that whether he plays, retires, or the Packers want to cut him — every option is really bad for Green Bay. So, let’s explore each option.

No. 1: Rodgers keeps playing

It’s weird to think this might be the least-likely scenario, but here we are. If Rodgers keeps playing it’s not terrible, it just drags out a potential rebuild for years.

Obviously we don’t know the 2023 salary cap, but Rodgers is still set to make $31.6M next year and count towards a significant chunk of the cap, regardless of what it jumps to.

No. 2: Rodgers retires following 2022

This is probably the best scenario for Green Bay, but it’s still not great. With so much guaranteed money left on the deal it would require Rodgers to leave a staggering amount of money on the table, forfeiting much of the contract he coveted in the first place.

If there was no agreement on restructuring or reworking the deal the Packers would take a cap hit of $40.3M in 2023. However they would be free to rebuild with full cap space in 2024.

The Packers have 7 players set to become unrestricted free agents in 2023, and while not every one of those players would be a priority, it does include Allen Lazard and Robert Tonyan, two of the team’s only offensive weapons. Fielding a full team would become markedly more difficult. As it stands Over the Cap have the Packers at $5M in the red, with 46 players under contract in 2023. Rodgers cuts that to 45 players, meaning Green Bay would need to find a way to re-sign Lazard, Tonyan and pay their draft class — all while being about $10M over the salary cap.

The numbers are really difficult to make work without signing some questionable extensions for guys like David Bahktiari or Kenny Clark, purely to push money into the future.

No. 3: Rodgers is cut

Not going to happen. It’s not even worth really discussing this, but for completeness let’s do it.

If the Packers cut Aaron Rodgers he will count towards $99M of the cap in 2023. If they chose to split that it would be $31M in 2023 and then $68.2M in 2024. Cutting Rodgers would doom Green Bay for damn near a decade and destroy the organization.

It will not happen.

No. 4: Rodgers is traded

Could it happen? Sure. Will it? I don’t see how.

There is not a no-trade clause built into Rodgers’ contract, so technically he can be dealt at any time. However, it’s hard to see what team would roll the dice on an underperforming QB, who’s owed a boatload of money, with questionable off-field interests, who could land in your city and retire on the spot out of pettiness.

This would really require the Packers to eat a considerable part of Rodgers’ contract to even grease the wheels enough for a trade, and that’s assuming a team is out there who wants him.

When it comes to a trade the Packers could have gotten two, or even three first rounds picks if they made the deal before the draft. Now, it’s hard to imagine them getting anything better than a mid-rounder, and needing to eat some cap in the process.

This seems to be a common refrain any time a bad contract is discussed, and it’s supremely shortsighted. Yes, the NFL will have a larger salary cap in 2023, with an even bigger jump coming in 2024 due to new TV rights deals kicking in. The issue is looking at this with a single team in isolation.

A bad contract is a bad contract, regardless of what happens to the cap. At a functional level, sure, it allows you to absorb the hit a little better — but this ignores that every other team in the NFL is also getting more cap space, and might not have a terrible contract to contend with.

Bad deals, like Rodgers’, impacts the ability for a front office to offer money to lure free agents, retain their own players in an inflated market, and generally makes the whole process more difficult. This is hitting double for Green Bay, because not only is the team in a bad cap spot, but they’re underperforming — so there isn’t a chance here to get bargain deals on veteran players the same way the Buccaneers and Rams have gotten in recent years, who solely joined teams in pursuit of championships.

Everyone knows the Packers aren’t in a spot to compete until a rebuild, and that puts them in a bad situation.

Let’s make something abundantly clear: NFL players deserve guaranteed contracts. They play one of the most brutal sports in the world, with a very narrow window to make money before they are forced to leave the game, and retire into a life which is likely shortened due to the punishment they took playing football.

Having players secure their futures while their stock is high is one of the best single changes to happen to NFL contracts in the history of the sport. The old model of reported $100M deals that saw top stars earn a fraction of that, then get cut or injured was an unsustainable mess. However, there is a downside to the new guaranteed deals too.

In a lot of ways the league is still growing accustomed to dealing with guaranteed contracts. As it stands there really isn’t a system that insulates teams from players falling off a cliff performance wise. On the one hand you can be callus and say “the front office deserves it,” but that’s not really fair to fans who have to endure pain and rebuilding because one bad guaranteed contract went awry.

Either way, nothing will be fixed until a new CBA — and that’s won’t come until 2030. The Aaron Rodgers situation in Green Bay is happening now, and it isn’t pretty.